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Thread: 2020 Cap Situation

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    2020 Cap Situation

    Seeing some talk on this board about a potential Kreider contract and what that means for others FAs/RFAs (Strome, DeAngelo, etc.), so I decided to take a way too early look at the 2020 Cap situation. I will be conservative and assume the cap only goes up $2M like it did this last offseason. In that case, the Rangers will have ~17.7M to pick and choose who to sign and/or how to fill the following positions:

    • Kreider
    • Strome
    • DeAngelo
    • Fast
    • Lemieux
    • Georgiev
    • Entire 4th Line (probably filled via prospects)


    I'll assume the 4th line is slightly higher than it has been (Haley 700k, McKegg 750k, Nieves 700k). Let's say 900k per slot to make the math easier, which equals 2.7M for the 4th line. That leaves 15M for the rest.

    Now for some loose guesstimates to get an idea of how much we would actually need to keep all of them if that was the game plan:

    Kreider: 7 x 7M
    DeAngelo 3 x 4.5M
    Strome: 5 x 5M
    Fast: 3 x 2.5M
    Lemieux: 2 X 2M
    Georgiev: 1 x 1M

    That's 22M. Even if these are a bit off, something clearly has to give. Even if everyone took "team friendly deals", you're not going to find a way to fit these guys under 15M. Some options they could be looking at:

    1. Trade Kreider. The obvious one and the easiest route to take. Everyone else fits under the cap and they can keep going with what they've got. The hole left by Kreider is filled from within the org.
    2. Trade either Strome OR DeAngelo, in conjunction with trading Buchnevich or letting Fast go.
    3. Trade Strome AND DeAngelo.
    4. Trade Buchnevich, let Fast go, perform buyout (Staal? Which would save an additional ~1.1M against the cap after accounting for his replacement cost). Note: Smith is a pointless buyout. Doesn't save anything when factoring in replacement cost.


    I think the next couple of months are going to heavily dictate which route they take in handling this. At the moment, I think they have to be leaning towards option 1. Trade Kreider. But if the team is pushing playoffs, and he's part of the leadership group getting them there, it will not be clear cut come trade deadline.

    Which route do you take? Any listed here or something else?

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    Kreider and DeAngelo I don't see being signed for that much.
    Strome could go either way.
    Fast, Lemieux & Georgiev all will be resigned.
    Georgiev and Fast will probably be left exposed for the expansion draft.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RJWantsTheCup View Post
    Kreider and DeAngelo I don't see being signed for that much.
    Strome could go either way.
    Fast, Lemieux & Georgiev all will be resigned.
    Georgiev and Fast will probably be left exposed for the expansion draft.
    I believe Huska will be the exposed goalie as he qualifies.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    Seeing some talk on this board about a potential Kreider contract and what that means for others FAs/RFAs (Strome, DeAngelo, etc.), so I decided to take a way too early look at the 2020 Cap situation. I will be conservative and assume the cap only goes up $2M like it did this last offseason. In that case, the Rangers will have ~17.7M to pick and choose who to sign and/or how to fill the following positions:

    • Kreider
    • Strome
    • DeAngelo
    • Fast
    • Lemieux
    • Georgiev
    • Entire 4th Line (probably filled via prospects)


    I'll assume the 4th line is slightly higher than it has been (Haley 700k, McKegg 750k, Nieves 700k). Let's say 900k per slot to make the math easier, which equals 2.7M for the 4th line. That leaves 15M for the rest.

    Now for some loose guesstimates to get an idea of how much we would actually need to keep all of them if that was the game plan:

    Kreider: 7 x 7M
    DeAngelo 3 x 4.5M
    Strome: 5 x 5M
    Fast: 3 x 2.5M
    Lemieux: 2 X 2M
    Georgiev: 1 x 1M

    That's 22M. Even if these are a bit off, something clearly has to give. Even if everyone took "team friendly deals", you're not going to find a way to fit these guys under 15M. Some options they could be looking at:

    1. Trade Kreider. The obvious one and the easiest route to take. Everyone else fits under the cap and they can keep going with what they've got. The hole left by Kreider is filled from within the org.
    2. Trade either Strome OR DeAngelo, in conjunction with trading Buchnevich or letting Fast go.
    3. Trade Strome AND DeAngelo.
    4. Trade Buchnevich, let Fast go, perform buyout (Staal? Which would save an additional ~1.1M against the cap after accounting for his replacement cost). Note: Smith is a pointless buyout. Doesn't save anything when factoring in replacement cost.


    I think the next couple of months are going to heavily dictate which route they take in handling this. At the moment, I think they have to be leaning towards option 1. Trade Kreider. But if the team is pushing playoffs, and he's part of the leadership group getting them there, it will not be clear cut come trade deadline.

    Which route do you take? Any listed here or something else?
    The only guy I think they have to keep on that list at this point is Tony D. I don't see anyone else coming up that can do what he does. I love Strome and want them to do whatever they can, within reason, to keep him. Kreider, as much as I like him, certainly doesn't play to that type of contract. Georgiev and Fast are very replaceable by what we already have/could find.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin View Post
    The only guy I think they have to keep on that list at this point is Tony D. I don't see anyone else coming up that can do what he does. I love Strome and want them to do whatever they can, within reason, to keep him. Kreider, as much as I like him, certainly doesn't play to that type of contract. Georgiev and Fast are very replaceable by what we already have/could find.
    I don't think you need ADA with Trouba and Fox here, especially at his proce tag. He's the most expedable RHD, with what's coming and who's here in terms of age and price tag.

    If I had to guess, I think ADA, Georgie, Kreider and Buch go. They're looking at keeping:
    - Lemieux
    - Fast
    - Strome

    They're all the most likely to take team friendly deals since they've "found a home" and are taken care of here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin View Post
    The only guy I think they have to keep on that list at this point is Tony D. I don't see anyone else coming up that can do what he does. I love Strome and want them to do whatever they can, within reason, to keep him. Kreider, as much as I like him, certainly doesn't play to that type of contract. Georgiev and Fast are very replaceable by what we already have/could find.
    I don't think they have to keep anyone on the list if they really don't want to. Trouba/Fox makes DeAngelo a nice to have and not a must have IMO.

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    You can spend $10 on these guys. Then, for every additional $1m spent, you are crossing out 1 guy from below.


    21-22 class:
    Buchnevich
    Chytil
    Howden
    Lindgren
    Hajek
    Rykov
    Andersson
    Lundvist
    Shersterkin

    22-23:
    Zibanejad
    Kakko
    Fox
    Kravtsov
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    Quote Originally Posted by CBrowningPI View Post
    I believe Huska will be the exposed goalie as he qualifies.
    This would seem more likely. Georgiev doesn't need to be exposed provided he's still on the team.

    --

    I'd like to think that DeAngelo and Kreider are the odd men out.

    DeAngelo despite his offensive success this season seems doubtful to grow into any meaningful type of defensive player. Maybe he could grow under different personnel, i.e. not Ruff, but it remains to be seen if the Rangers get that change anytime soon. Given what it would likely cost to re-sign him I think it's better to just sell high as opposed to pouring more money into the defensive corps.

    I just don't think Kreider is consistent enough to warrant whatever he's about to get paid. Based on the upcoming UFA class he's one of the top forwards available, unless he's really feeling in the mood for a discount he's going to get something close to the market trend. He's been wildly inconsistent this season and ineffective if not scoring. $7M isn't worth paying for 25-30 goals and not much else.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    I don't think you need ADA with Trouba and Fox here, especially at his proce tag. He's the most expedable RHD, with what's coming and who's here in terms of age and price tag.

    If I had to guess, I think ADA, Georgie, Kreider and Buch go. They're looking at keeping:
    - Lemieux
    - Fast
    - Strome

    They're all the most likely to take team friendly deals since they've "found a home" and are taken care of here.
    These moves would create quite a bit of cap space to work with. Where would you see them using their cap space with the savings?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    I don't think you need ADA with Trouba and Fox here, especially at his proce tag. He's the most expedable RHD, with what's coming and who's here in terms of age and price tag.

    If I had to guess, I think ADA, Georgie, Kreider and Buch go. They're looking at keeping:
    - Lemieux
    - Fast
    - Strome

    They're all the most likely to take team friendly deals since they've "found a home" and are taken care of here.
    It wouldn't shock me if both Buch and Kreider go but they'd need to be getting NHL talent back in return otherwise you've got nothing at the wing. If Kravtsov isn't ready it's Kakko and another year of Fast in the top 6.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CBrowningPI View Post
    I believe Huska will be the exposed goalie as he qualifies.
    Huska shows on the exempt list on CapFriendly.
    https://www.capfriendly.com/expansion-draft/seattle
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    Quote Originally Posted by Drew a Penalty View Post
    It wouldn't shock me if both Buch and Kreider go but they'd need to be getting NHL talent back in return otherwise you've got nothing at the wing. If Kravtsov isn't ready it's Kakko and another year of Fast in the top 6.
    Hypothetically, you could have one more run of stacking prospects and picks while freeing up enough space to make a big FA splash (Hall?) or 1-2 lower key splashes (thinking guys I've seen mentioned recently on this board that make some sense like Granlund, Haula). Then there's no pressure on guys like Kravtsov to step in right away again.

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    The Staal buyout may be a near certainty in these calculations. Ditto Smith. They need to push the bulk of what is owed on those contracts off by one year (ie, post Hank). The estimates of what it would take to sign Kreider and ADA are on the high side. Kreider has probably lost some market value since his big numbers the first half of last year. As for deadline rental deals, none of these guys is going to bring particular riches at that point, and I find hard to swallow a third straight year of sacrificing any shot at the playoffs and putting the team through a death march for the final portion of the season.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    Hypothetically, you could have one more run of stacking prospects and picks while freeing up enough space to make a big FA splash (Hall?) or 1-2 lower key splashes (thinking guys I've seen mentioned recently on this board that make some sense like Granlund, Haula). Then there's no pressure on guys like Kravtsov to step in right away again.
    Ideally, this should be the last really bad season. Maximizing whatever ELCs they can would be preferable though it would appear that only Fox and Kakko have the potential to cash in on their next deals given Kravtsov's flight and subsequent struggles.

    I'd prefer a hockey trade for Buchnevich especially considering he's on a cheap deal if he maintains production. That's worth more than picks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sod16 View Post
    The Staal buyout may be a near certainty in these calculations. Ditto Smith. They need to push the bulk of what is owed on those contracts off by one year (ie, post Hank). The estimates of what it would take to sign Kreider and ADA are on the high side. Kreider has probably lost some market value since his big numbers the first half of last year. As for deadline rental deals, none of these guys is going to bring particular riches at that point, and I find hard to swallow a third straight year of sacrificing any shot at the playoffs and putting the team through a death march for the final portion of the season.
    Staal buyout = $3,566,667 + $1,066,667
    Smith buyout = $2,783,333 + $783,333

    Rangers already have $7,494,444 in dead space with buyouts and retention for next season. You can only buyout Staal or Smith if you think Strome or Kreider is vital to the team in 3 seasons. If not, you have to let these contracts die off naturally.

    And if you are buying out a player, subtract the amount from the $10 allowance for 20-21.
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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    These moves would create quite a bit of cap space to work with. Where would you see them using their cap space with the savings?
    I don't have CapFr in front of me, I'm strictly basing in on what people will cost in terms of AAV and term, and who's vital to the future.

    Krieder=not interested in the moeny or term he's going to get
    ADA=Redundant with Trouba/Fox and what's on the way (Keane/Lindqvist)
    Buch=Just not sensing he's in long term plans and his production might mean he's pricing himself out
    Georgie=See ADA

    Strome is a viable band-aid and great in the room + has Quinn coin. Fast I feel like you have to keep with all the other turnover + losing Kreider, and he's cheap. Lemiuex is finding his role here, is kind of a unicorn in style of play, has Quinn coin, probably is cheap.

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    I like Tony but Out of everyone listed, I think he’s the least likely to stay. Especially with Miller coming next year and Rykov still in the mix once he’s healthy, he’s the player you can trade. Probably get a good return for him as well.

    I also think Georgiev will get moved this year to allow Shesty to come up.
    GORTON 2020

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    Georgiev being pushed out seems to be gathering momentum here. If Shestyorkin has trouble perfoming at this level, then what's the path forward at goalie? Nothing suggests he will, other than highly rated prospects bust all the time once they hit the NHL, but trading Georgiev and leaving no safety net is a gamble.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    Georgiev being pushed out seems to be gathering momentum here. If Shestyorkin has trouble perfoming at this level, then what's the path forward at goalie? Nothing suggests he will, other than highly rated prospects bust all the time once they hit the NHL, but trading Georgiev and leaving no safety net is a gamble.
    I think Hank's, contract is done after next season, along with Staal and Smith. Georgie is an RFA after this season...I would hope the Rangers bank that 18.55 million scratch from Hank, Staal, and Smith and spend it wisely.

    Not to mention Shatty's and Girardi's, and Spooner's buyouts being reduced significantly after next season which gives us $5 million more.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Drew a Penalty View Post
    Ideally, this should be the last really bad season. Maximizing whatever ELCs they can would be preferable though it would appear that only Fox and Kakko have the potential to cash in on their next deals given Kravtsov's flight and subsequent struggles.

    I'd prefer a hockey trade for Buchnevich especially considering he's on a cheap deal if he maintains production. That's worth more than picks.
    I'd prefer a hockey trade on almost all fronts at this point. The picks are fine to backfill from this point on, but the studs are in place. Start building.
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