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Thread: Pavel Buchnevich, Jacob Trouba File for Arbitration

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by G1000 View Post
    Maybe I'm off here, but can't Buch play both wings? I'm sure there's a stat I'm missing that shows he's stronger on the right if this is your assertion.

    As an aside, Kakko is listed as an RW, but had his most productive games as a LW if my memory serves.
    I dont care which wing anyone plays on. Buchnevich hasnt done enough to earn a contract of any length. Love the kid, but based on inconsistent play and new acquisitions, he needs to prove not to be an afterthought.
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    Quote Originally Posted by josh View Post
    I dont care which wing anyone plays on. Buchnevich hasnt done enough to earn a contract of any length. Love the kid, but based on inconsistent play and new acquisitions, he needs to prove not to be an afterthought.
    A 2 year bridge deal at around $3 million per would be a fair deal for him at this point.

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    Quote Originally Posted by josh View Post
    I dont care which wing anyone plays on. Buchnevich hasnt done enough to earn a contract of any length. Love the kid, but based on inconsistent play and new acquisitions, he needs to prove not to be an afterthought.
    New acquisitions is good reason to roll the dice to keep cost down. Do you see him being worse than a 20 goal scorer? He scored 21 in 64 last year. If he is willing to sign a longer contract between 4-4.5 per year, it would be a wise gamble. Doesn't have to be 6 years. Could be 4 or 5 as well.

    If he signs a 2 year bridge and puts up 25 goals a season, you'll probably be priced out. I mean shit, we are talking about losing Kreider because we don't want to pay him. I see the talent there with Buch, and I saw it in spades the last 2-3 months of the season.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CBrowningPI View Post
    It seems like every day that passes with no news of trades or signings, the Rangers are going to have a more difficult time getting their cap space figured out. It just seems like teams are signing players every day and their cap space gets tighter and tighter. Meaning the options for the Rangers gets really limited to which teams they can make a deal with. Does anybody have a tidbit in the rumor mill? Just seems eerily quiet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    New acquisitions is good reason to roll the dice to keep cost down. Do you see him being worse than a 20 goal scorer? He scored 21 in 64 last year. If he is willing to sign a longer contract between 4-4.5 per year, it would be a wise gamble. Doesn't have to be 6 years. Could be 4 or 5 as well.

    If he signs a 2 year bridge and puts up 25 goals a season, you'll probably be priced out. I mean shit, we are talking about losing Kreider because we don't want to pay him. I see the talent there with Buch, and I saw it in spades the last 2-3 months of the season.
    I'd like to see him hit 20, but he's done it once in his career. Do I anticipate him getting 1st line minutes? Not really. Maybe until Kakko adjusts. I'd be more likely to bet he plays on the 4th line for half the season than him hitting 20 goals for multiple seasons.

    As for Kreider, again, the issue is a bunch of shit contracts handed out to players in hopes they can live up to them. time and time again. They need to stay away from these.


    Bridge. I'd rather him price himself out of NY than be saddled with another danger zone contract.


    Honestly, I'd go to arbitration and take that deal. Comparable contracts are 1m - 3m, at most.
    Last edited by josh; 07-15-2019 at 12:25 PM.
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    Kreider and Buch are guys you play on your first line when you don't have Panarin, Kakko and Kravtsov.

    So may they are top wingers this year, but won't be in 2-3 years. So you can't afford to pay them no like they are top line players just because they have, at a point, played on a shitty team's top line.

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    Quote Originally Posted by josh View Post
    I'd like to see him hit 20, but he's done it once in his career. Do I anticipate him getting 1st line minutes? Not really. Maybe until Kakko adjusts. I'd be more likely to bet he plays on the 4th line for half the season than him hitting 20 goals for multiple seasons.

    As for Kreider, again, the issue is a bunch of shit contracts handed out to players in hopes they can live up to them. time and time again. They need to stay away from these.


    Bridge. I'd rather him price himself out of NY than be saddled with another danger zone contract.


    Honestly, I'd go to arbitration and take that deal. Comparable contracts are 1m - 3m, at most.
    Buch was 8th on the team in average TOI for forwards, played 62 games, and still put up 20 goals. He's doing it on 3rd line minutes, not 1st line minutes.

    I generally agree with your point about danger zone contracts, but I don't think 4-4.5M makes it to that plateau. It's still fairly cheap and a lot easier to move if needed. Once you get to the 5-7M range for average middle 6 players is when it gets hairy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    Kreider and Buch are guys you play on your first line when you don't have Panarin, Kakko and Kravtsov.

    So may they are top wingers this year, but won't be in 2-3 years. So you can't afford to pay them no like they are top line players just because they have, at a point, played on a shitty team's top line.
    I don't think anybody is saying to pay Kreider and Buch like top line players.

    Teams with scoring depth all have Kreider comparable contracts on the second and third line line, and a lot of them produce a lot less. Alex Steen ($5.75m) signed at 7.6% of cap . TJ Oshie was at the same number but got a full 8 years. Kreider at $7m, assuming an $83m cap next year, would be at 8.4%. That's not the type of contract that hurts you. Should WPG just let Laine and one of Ehlers/Connor walk because they are on the second line?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    Kreider and Buch are guys you play on your first line when you don't have Panarin, Kakko and Kravtsov.

    So may they are top wingers this year, but won't be in 2-3 years. So you can't afford to pay them no like they are top line players just because they have, at a point, played on a shitty team's top line.
    Good thing 4-4.5M is not 1st line money.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    Buch was 8th on the team in average TOI for forwards, played 62 games, and still put up 20 goals. He's doing it on 3rd line minutes, not 1st line minutes.

    I generally agree with your point about danger zone contracts, but I don't think 4-4.5M makes it to that plateau. It's still fairly cheap and a lot easier to move if needed. Once you get to the 5-7M range for average middle 6 players is when it gets hairy.
    That seems pretty high for Buch, if he went to arbitration, considering what Dzingel just got (3.375 after back-to-back 20-goal seasons). I don't mind 4x$4m for Buch, but that's higher than you need to go I think.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Future View Post
    That seems pretty high for Buch, if he went to arbitration, considering what Dzingel just got (3.375 after back-to-back 20-goal seasons). I don't mind 4x$4m for Buch, but that's higher than you need to go I think.
    Good point. That would be even better.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    Good point. That would be even better.
    To be fair, you're not going to get Buch for 4 years at that number, Dzingel only got two, but that's a pretty typical bridge.

    I like giving Buch 4 years now though so that, when you have guys coming off their ELC, Buch will be an expiring contract who has played some top-6 minutes over the past couple years and will be easy to move. That becomes a lot more difficult if you have to give him 5x$5m in 2021.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Future View Post
    To be fair, you're not going to get Buch for 4 years at that number, Dzingel only got two, but that's a pretty typical bridge.

    I like giving Buch 4 years now though so that, when you have guys coming off their ELC, Buch will be an expiring contract who has played some top-6 minutes over the past couple years and will be easy to move. That becomes a lot more difficult if you have to give him 5x$5m in 2021.
    I'd like to think that by 2021-22, we've had at least one wing that we've brought into the system that can play third line minutes and score 15-20 goals such that we don't have to pay Buch like that if he's not earned it. Else, if we're that crunched and he's really earned the cash, he's good tradebait.

    I'd be a fan of a 2 year deal here, though. Keep him RFA at the end of it, but make it a "prove it" deal. I'm fine with a salary structure that bumps up his QO at the end of the deal too (figure a 2y/3m per deal that pays him 1.75 and 4.25).
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    I'd rather Buch blow up and earn 6x6 than give him 5m x 4y only to see him show up for 23 games, again.
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    Quote Originally Posted by G1000 View Post
    I'd like to think that by 2021-22, we've had at least one wing that we've brought into the system that can play third line minutes and score 15-20 goals such that we don't have to pay Buch like that if he's not earned it. Else, if we're that crunched and he's really earned the cash, he's good tradebait.

    I'd be a fan of a 2 year deal here, though. Keep him RFA at the end of it, but make it a "prove it" deal. I'm fine with a salary structure that bumps up his QO at the end of the deal too (figure a 2y/3m per deal that pays him 1.75 and 4.25).
    Agreed to an extent on the first part, but my thought is that Buchnevich has already shown that he is a 15-20 goal scorer and capable of well more than that. He is 24 years old and a solid candidate to get even better. We all saw the progression he made last year (15g, 12A in last 42 games), which is a 30 goal/50+ point pace over a majority of the season. His production sky-rocketed when he received 2nd line-ish minutes. He's the exact kind of talent you try and lock up on the cheaper side while you have the leverage.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Future View Post
    To be fair, you're not going to get Buch for 4 years at that number, Dzingel only got two, but that's a pretty typical bridge.

    I like giving Buch 4 years now though so that, when you have guys coming off their ELC, Buch will be an expiring contract who has played some top-6 minutes over the past couple years and will be easy to move. That becomes a lot more difficult if you have to give him 5x$5m in 2021.
    I meant the 4x4. I wouldn't expect him to sell any UFA years at less than 4M AAV.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    Good thing 4-4.5M is not 1st line money.
    It ain't Buch money, either. You're willing to pay for him showing up half a season and playing well, when the other half he was scratched LOL.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Future View Post
    I don't think anybody is saying to pay Kreider and Buch like top line players.

    Teams with scoring depth all have Kreider comparable contracts on the second and third line line, and a lot of them produce a lot less. Alex Steen ($5.75m) signed at 7.6% of cap . TJ Oshie was at the same number but got a full 8 years. Kreider at $7m, assuming an $83m cap next year, would be at 8.4%. That's not the type of contract that hurts you. Should WPG just let Laine and one of Ehlers/Connor walk because they are on the second line?
    Maybe not next year, but down the line when guys like Kakko, Kravtsov, Fox and Chytil come off their ELC’s having a 30 something Kreider on 7m is exactly the type of deal that hurts you. I’m extremely sceptical even though I like Kreider.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    It ain't Buch money, either. You're willing to pay for him showing up half a season and playing well, when the other half he was scratched LOL.
    Who didn't get scratched by Quinn last year? I also think that motivated Buch to be a player we hadn't yet seen, so your attempt to denigrate actually gets put in the plus column for me.

    The Rangers need to hit on some value contracts moving forward and I see an opportunity for a value contract here. I will admit I am higher on Buchnevich's ceiling than most. Given his progression has trended up, I look at it as a logical gamble. Last summer with Skjei was not because he had been trending downward since his rookie year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gravesy View Post
    Maybe not next year, but down the line when guys like Kakko, Kravtsov, Fox and Chytil come off their ELC’s having a 30 something Kreider on 7m is exactly the type of deal that hurts you. I’m extremely sceptical even though I like Kreider.
    Kreider could still be scoring 25-30 goals at that point so, no, it doesn't hurt you, because that's easily tradeable. If you think his production is going to dip, then it doesn't matter what his cap # is because they shouldn't keep him anyway.

    Most of the money for those guys is going to come from the expiring contracts. Hank, Staal, Smith, and Shatty alone is around $32m. It's not like they're the Leafs and you're going to have to give 4 guys $10m.

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