Fatfrancesa Posted May 5, 2019 Share Posted May 5, 2019 Of course you are. It was three years ago. He is now and was then a very good offensive player. He was then at least very spotty in his own end and suspect in his decision making regarding risk worth reward. Again it was three years ago. Just trying to provide some thought to temper expectations at the very least. He’s a very good prospect, there is no denying that which I am not. He plays defense and his defensive play needs work. Maybe more work than people think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonGecko Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 According to TSN's research, two 2nds has roughly a 20% chance of producing an NHL player. https://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144 http://images.tsn.ca/images/stories/2015/2/12/yost-draft3_53999.jpg That's the wrong chart. The odds for one out of the two making it is actually 70% (2+2) http://images.tsn.ca/images/stories/2015/2/12/yost-draft2_53987.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 That's the wrong chart. The odds for one out of the two making it is actually 70% (2+2) http://images.tsn.ca/images/stories/2015/2/12/yost-draft2_53987.jpg This can't be right. Over 30% chance of getting atleast 1 NHL player out of two 7th rounders? Thats wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonGecko Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 This can't be right. Over 30% chance of getting atleast 1 NHL player out of two 7th rounders? Thats wrong. No that's correct, the odds of a 7th rounder becoming an NHL player is almost like 18% - those are the stats. The odds of 1 of 2 hitting is additive, so around 35% is right. The chance of BOTH making it is a multiplier, so then it would be more like 4% The hit rate really flattens out from round 4 to round 7: http://images.tsn.ca/images/stories/2015/2/12/yost-draft1_53958.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravesy Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 What does "become an NHL'er" mean in this context? Get signed? Play a game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonGecko Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 What does "become an NHL'er" mean in this context? Get signed? Play a game? 50+ games played what really hurts is picking that bust in the first round outside of that 80% hit rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rosenvold Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 50+ games played what really hurts is picking that bust in the first round outside of that 80% hit rate By those standards, Dylan McIlrath is as much of a draft success as Alexander Ovechkin. Both count as 1 in that statistic. Important to remember. Anyway, nice graph and interesting numbers. How are 1st rounders counted? Average of all 1st round picks or only picks 15-31? The latter would be the most relevant, since lottery picks are so rarely traded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonGecko Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 By those standards, Dylan McIlrath is as much of a draft success as Alexander Ovechkin. Both count as 1 in that statistic. Important to remember. Anyway, nice graph and interesting numbers. How are 1st rounders counted? Average of all 1st round picks or only picks 15-31? The latter would be the most relevant, since lottery picks are so rarely traded. You would have to perform a much more detailed analysis, but it's not that hard to do. The TSN guy looked at 10 years of draft picks from 2000-2009. You can put all those players in a simple database along with their lifetime stats and run a bunch of quick queries, like narrowing it down to top 15 picks vs back 16 in round 1, or having a chart with different criteria for an "NHL PLayer" like X points scored for forwards or Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-expected-value-of-nhl-draft-picks-1.317819 Used to be a great breakdown, per pick on percentages to likely make the nhl, top6/bottom 6 etc. Appears the page is down, though. bummer. Try https://web.archive.org/web/20170816142522/http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-expected-value-of-nhl-draft-picks-1.317819 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravesy Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 Just reading Scott Wheeler's redraft of 2016. He's now got Fox going at #9 to the Canadiens. 9. Montreal Canadiens: Adam Fox Actual draft pick: No. 66 (change: +57) to Calgary My final ranking: No. 29 (change: +20) Remember when I said that this ranking was going to be based on my evaluations? Well here we are at the point where a kid who has yet to play an NHL game gets ranked ahead of several who are a season or two deep into their NHL careers. I’m confident Fox is going to be that good. He’s one of those players who is going to spend so much time with the puck on his stick on offence that concerns over the ability of a smaller defender to be a No. 1 are quickly going to be muted. Fox is a stud who just had the most productive season by an NCAA defenceman (1.45 points per game!) since I began doing this whole scouting things six years ago (breaking the record of 1.08 points per game that he tied two seasons before). This is a kid, who, as a defenceman, posted 17 more points than his nearest teammate while playing to a plus-23 rating on a Harvard team that spent more time outside of USA Today’s national NCAA ranking than it did inside it. He’s going to immediately become an impact player for the Rangers and will probably go down as the second-biggest steal of the 2016 draft (if that’s possible for a kid who never played for the team that drafted him) to Alex DeBrincat. Like DeBrincat, I was considerably higher on Fox than the NHL consensus, so that’s good, but I was still too low on him. The kid led the NCAA in points per game (not just defencemen, everyone)! 2018-2019 season (Junior, NCAA): 48 points (9G, 39A), 33 games. Hobey Baker Award Finalist. https://theathletic.com/975897/2019/06/05/wheeler-a-2016-nhl-draft-re-draft-and-retrospective-look-back-at-my-ranking/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddious Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 I?m so excite! Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 Just reading Scott Wheeler's redraft of 2016. He's now got Fox going at #9 to the Canadiens. https://theathletic.com/975897/2019/06/05/wheeler-a-2016-nhl-draft-re-draft-and-retrospective-look-back-at-my-ranking/ Can't get much more of a glowing review than that! Hope he lives up to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flynn Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 Can't get much more of a glowing review than that! Hope he lives up to it! Also worth noting he had Howden #25 in that redraft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThirtyONE Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 Rangers are doing everything right at the moment. It's crazy. I don't know this organization anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddious Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 Rangers are doing everything right at the moment. It's crazy. I don't know this organization anymore. We all keep waiting for them to mess it up somehow lol Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albatrosss Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 We all keep waiting for them to mess it up somehow lol Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk they will when they pass on Kakko or Hughes and pick someone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravesy Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 they will when they pass on Kakko or Hughes and pick someone else. They won't do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albatrosss Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 but you're still a little nervous, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozzy Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 Yes! ...but I have faith in Gorton! ....I think! :rofl: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravesy Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 I’m not nervous. Nobody’s that stupid. [/famous last words] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flynn Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 I was nervous.. but I don't see JD allowing Gordie Clark distribute his Koolaide to the draft room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThirtyONE Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 I was nervous.. but I don't see JD allowing Gordie Clark distribute his Koolaide to the draft room This is my thinking. JD isn't going fucking off board in his first draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 I trust Gorton, as well. I also trusted Sather and Clarke. They had a different approach, but I always felt like they were trying to improve the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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