Lightning Re-sign Brandon Hagel to 8-year/$52m Extension; $6.5m AAV

[Phil]

 

[Cash or Czech]

I thought Tampa's thing was to find talent before they got expensive, and then move on to the next one? Certainly a fair value contract at last year's clip.

 

Tampa only has an estimated $12M in room for next year, with Stamkos being the main FA. He'll be 34, probably looking for another 3-4 year contract to cash out. 

[Phil]

I mean, he had 64 points last year. 30 goals in his age 24 season. He looks like the real deal.

[jsm7302]

That's a long, expensive deal for one 64 point season. Dude is 179lbs @ 6'2"; one Trouba hit away from visiting the next galaxy.

 

I feel like Tampa is riding into the sunset. I know they still have talent and all but I don't think they are of the same Ilk they were when they won their cups.

[Pete]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

I mean, he had 64 points last year. 30 goals in his age 24 season. He looks like the real deal.

It's this, look at his career progression. They just bought his most productive years.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Pete said:

It's this, look at his career progression. They just bought his most productive years.

 

Right. I feel like the default state/response is to always assume the worst about every "big dollar" deal, but I'm just not seeing what's so worrisome here. Hell, even if he's only a 65-point player, they'll have bought him at exactly market value/rate through all his prime years.

[Valriera]

You worry about expensive deals when they’re 8m plus for these kinds of players. Not 6.5. This is a great deal that’s almost pure upside.

[RJWantsTheCup]

If he levels out it's an ok deal.  If he keeps progressing it's a steal.  If he regresses it ends up a bad deal.  More than likely it turns out ok for Tampa.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Valriera said:

You worry about expensive deals when they’re 8m plus for these kinds of players. Not 6.5. This is a great deal that’s almost pure upside.

 

I'm not sure there's a specific number this applies to. To me, it's more about when the player is older (27+) and cashes in in UFA based on a career year like Trouba did (for example). While Hagel technically had a career year, his year-to-year production has only increased.

 

2020-21 — 24 in 52 (0.46 P/GP)

2021-22 — 44 in 77 (0.57)

2022-23 — 64 in 81 (0.79)

 

[Phil]

Just now, RJWantsTheCup said:

If he levels out it's an ok deal.  If he keeps progressing it's a steal.  If he regresses it ends up a bad deal.  More than likely it turns out ok for Tampa.

 

LOL, I mean, that's true of litearlly any player ever.

[Albatrosss]

44 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

LOL, I mean, that's true of litearlly any player ever.

Trouba's deal was never a good deal, even if he progressed

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, CCCP said:

Trouba's deal was never a good deal, even if he progressed

 

Disagree. If he was actually a 65-point, top-pairing defender who hits like a truck (2023 Scott Stevens), he'd absolutely be worth the $8M.

[Albatrosss]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Disagree. If he was actually a 65-point, top-pairing defender who hits like a truck (2023 Scott Stevens), he'd absolutely be worth the $8M.

he would've never progressed enough to justify $8M cap hit.  Not in his game to be a player you described above. He doesnt have the tools to be a 65 point defenseman. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, CCCP said:

he would've never progressed enough to justify $8M cap hit.  Not in his game to be a player you described above. He doesnt have the tools to be a 65 point defenseman. 

 

You're arguing two completely different things. First you said "Trouba's deal was never a good deal, even if he progressed." Now you're saying he never would have. The second is probably true. The first isn't.

 

If he progressed, he'd have been worth every cent.

[BlairBettsBlocksEverything]

in 2-3 years a $6.5 mil contract is going to be a much smaller % of cap than it is now. This really is a total steal of a contract if he continues to be the player he's been for them. On top of the actual offensive production, he plays a hard style which, at the very least will keep him a useful player and with the cap increases, you're probably going to see a lot of 3rd line guys getting contracts close to this one anyway. 

[Phil]

22 minutes ago, BlairBettsBlocksEverything said:

in 2-3 years a $6.5 mil contract is going to be a much smaller % of cap than it is now. This really is a total steal of a contract if he continues to be the player he's been for them. On top of the actual offensive production, he plays a hard style which, at the very least will keep him a useful player and with the cap increases, you're probably going to see a lot of 3rd line guys getting contracts close to this one anyway. 

 

He's not a third-liner. He just scored 30 goals.

[BlairBettsBlocksEverything]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

 

He's not a third-liner. He just scored 30 goals.

should have elaborated. his style of play would make that his floor, even if the offensive production slows. So regardless of his #s he will be at least decent value regardless

[Albatrosss]

9 hours ago, Phil said:

 

You're arguing two completely different things. First you said "Trouba's deal was never a good deal, even if he progressed." Now you're saying he never would have. The second is probably true. The first isn't.

 

If he progressed, he'd have been worth every cent.

If my grandmother had balls……

[Pete]

On 8/22/2023 at 10:48 PM, CCCP said:

If my grandmother had balls……

You wouldn't be here annoying the rest of us?

[MuddyInTheMiddle]

My issue is the contract vs. the sample size.

 

Please give me a comparable where that same 6.5 million cap hit would not have been more justified on a 4-5 year cap hit. While they are definitely buying his prime years, they are also buying 2-3 post prime years as he turns 25 in 3 days. 

[Albatrosss]

21 hours ago, Pete said:

You wouldn't be here annoying the rest of us?

You’d miss me. Who else would tell you that Yahoo is not just an aggregate of news articles?

[Pete]

2 hours ago, CCCP said:

You’d miss me. Who else would tell you that Yahoo is not just an aggregate of news articles?

What do you think you're the only one here who has no idea what they're talking about? Brooksie is alive and well. 

[Albatrosss]

14 hours ago, Pete said:

What do you think you're the only one here who has no idea what they're talking about? Brooksie is alive and well. 

So there are at least two people on here who could school you on Yahoo?

[Pete]

34 minutes ago, CCCP said:

So there are at least two people on here who could school you on Yahoo?

[RangersIn7]

There’s some risk involved, but it looks like a good deal.

Hes already established himself as a 30-goal scorer. He fits what they do there.

And as the cap goes down, it becomes an even more manageable number. For his best years too.