Rangers Earned No Respect: Oddsmakers

[Sod16]

Calgary, Edmonton, Minnesota, Carolina, Vegas, Toronto, Florida, Tampa and Colorado all rated at having a better chance at the Cup than the Rangers next year.  Rangers chances rated the same as... Pittsburgh.  Some of these teams are really surprising.  No playoffs Vegas?  Soon to be Dismantled Wild?  Flawed Carolina?  Goudreauless Calgary?  Swept Edmonton?  Swept Florida?  Swept Edmonton?

 

https://nypost.com/article/2023-stanley-cup-odds-the-avalanche-are-in-a-class-of-their-own/

[RichieNextel305]

Caesars Sportsbook has us right behind Colorado and Tampa Bay. They have us and Carolina at +1000, tied for 3rd best odds overall.

[BrooksBurner]

Are they wrong? The cap situation is well known and everyone knows the team on paper is getting worse for a year. Odds usually go down with that knowledge.

[The Dude]

3 hours ago, Sod16 said:

Calgary, Edmonton, Minnesota, Carolina, Vegas, Toronto, Florida, Tampa and Colorado all rated at having a better chance at the Cup than the Rangers next year.  Rangers chances rated the same as... Pittsburgh.  Some of these teams are really surprising.  No playoffs Vegas?  Soon to be Dismantled Wild?  Flawed Carolina?  Goudreauless Calgary?  Swept Edmonton?  Swept Florida?  Swept Edmonton?

 

https://nypost.com/article/2023-stanley-cup-odds-the-avalanche-are-in-a-class-of-their-own/

There's 2 Edmontons? Wow. 

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

13 hours ago, rmc51 said:

Are they wrong? The cap situation is well known and everyone knows the team on paper is getting worse for a year. Odds usually go down with that knowledge.

I think this is a bit overblown really. Yeah we'll loose a few good depth players, but our cap is not so fucked that we won't be able to replace them.

 

Tampa were 9m over the cap and everyone expected them to be a lot worse the following years (they lost Gourde in the expansion draft aswell) but they still found a way to get back to the cup final twice.

 

We have our core signed and a lot of good young players, we also have the best goalie in the world and if you've followed his career you know that last season wasn't just a fluke.

 

I don't know. I think this team will just continue to get better. I don't think losing Strome and a couple of deadline acquisitions will hurt this team as bad as some others think.

[Bugg]

14 hours ago, RichieNextel305 said:

Caesars Sportsbook has us right behind Colorado and Tampa Bay. They have us and Carolina at +1000, tied for 3rd best odds overall.

This. Betting lines are about math but also psychology, how to make a prop have roughly even money on all sides so the bookies win. Keep in mind; NYR almost certainly attract lots of casual bets and more than other teams by virtue of being the biggest market.

 

And the pschology of that is a big deal. Had a friend/client who was in fact an old time bookie, with a wire room and everything. He is since deceased, and was  blessed that he was never arrested. An example; 2003 World Series, Yankees/Marlins. Yankees were big favorities, were coming off a big run and had dramatically beaten the Sawx in the Aaron Boone game.  And attracted no action with very short odds. Marlins had a great pitching staff and talent like Miggy. Smart gamblers took the Marlins at long odds , and since Yankees had virtually no action on them, even adjusting the odds a bit, my pal took a serious bath. Nobody anywhere was betting the Yankees so there was no way to lay it off. 

 

Was sitting pretty after game 3 vs. Bolts with a 2-0 lead holding $100 on NYR @ 33 to 1. Oh well; gambling. I would not bet 2023 Stanley Cup until the Rangers have a hopefully brief losing streak to drop the odds a bit. 

[BrooksBurner]

1 hour ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

I think this is a bit overblown really. Yeah we'll loose a few good depth players, but our cap is not so fucked that we won't be able to replace them.

 

Tampa were 9m over the cap and everyone expected them to be a lot worse the following years (they lost Gourde in the expansion draft aswell) but they still found a way to get back to the cup final twice.

 

We have our core signed and a lot of good young players, we also have the best goalie in the world and if you've followed his career you know that last season wasn't just a fluke.

 

I don't know. I think this team will just continue to get better. I don't think losing Strome and a couple of deadline acquisitions will hurt this team as bad as some others think.

I feel like calling Strome, Copp, Vatrano depth players undersells what they brought to the team. I think it’s a pretty significant loss losing 2 or all 3 of them.

[Pete]

2 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

I feel like calling Strome, Copp, Vatrano depth players undersells what they brought to the team. I think it’s a pretty significant loss losing 2 or all 3 of them.

It's mostly because everybody thinks you can line up the guy selling cotton candy next to number 10 and everything will be okay. 

[BrooksBurner]

3 minutes ago, Pete said:

It's mostly because everybody thinks you can line up the guy selling cotton candy next to number 10 and everything will be okay. 

I know. There’s been a revolving door of non/low-production on the RW of Panarin’s line over the last few years before Copp was put there, that says otherwise though. Including the guy I keep seeing a lot of fans slot in there for next year (Kakko).

 

I mean don’t get me wrong, I’d bet on some progression from a guy like Lafreniere/Kakko, or decent rookie production from Kravtsov, but it’s pretty optimistic to think they are replacing the 60-65 points lost with Strome and/or Copp. Or 20-25 goals lost with Vatrano. Not impossible, just not likely. Hence the odds.

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

33 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

I feel like calling Strome, Copp, Vatrano depth players undersells what they brought to the team. I think it’s a pretty significant loss losing 2 or all 3 of them.

Well, there's no guarantee none of them will be back, and if they're all gone we will have cap space to sign some players.

 

It may be underselling calling them depth players, but it's not like we're losing our 3 best players and are certain to take a step back. Mika, Kreider and Panarin are still all under 30 and in their prime, no reason for them to slow down next season or the next 2-3 seasons. Fox and Igor are still at an age where they can get even better (yeah, scary thought) and then we have young guys that will certainly take a step forward in Miller, Schneider, Lafreniere, Kakko, Chytil, we have young "un-tested" guys like Blais, Kravtsov, Othman(?) and really good depth players like Lindgren, Goodrow, Motte, Trouba.

 

Yes we might lose two or three good players, but I'm still confident this team will continue to progress.

[Albatrosss]

3 hours ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

Well, there's no guarantee none of them will be back, and if they're all gone we will have cap space to sign some players.

 

It may be underselling calling them depth players, but it's not like we're losing our 3 best players and are certain to take a step back. Mika, Kreider and Panarin are still all under 30 and in their prime, no reason for them to slow down next season or the next 2-3 seasons. Fox and Igor are still at an age where they can get even better (yeah, scary thought) and then we have young guys that will certainly take a step forward in Miller, Schneider, Lafreniere, Kakko, Chytil, we have young "un-tested" guys like Blais, Kravtsov, Othman(?) and really good depth players like Lindgren, Goodrow, Motte, Trouba.

 

Yes we might lose two or three good players, but I'm still confident this team will continue to progress.

as long as we have Goodrow

[Sod16]

If I can squelch my pro-Ranger bias for a minute, I can see how an oddsmaker might come up with this.  You'd figure that the Rangers were lucky to play against teams without their No. 1 goalies and now are going to have to fill a lot of roster spots with yet unkowns.  On the other hand, some of the teams they rate above us objectively look weaker and have even more issues.

[BrooksBurner]

Get your bets in before the PLD trade!