article: Carp: Rangers Midseason Review

[josh]

No, I meant literal first- and second-overall picks going in back-to-back years all busting.

 

Hischier/Patrick, Dahlin/Svechnikov is the closest, I guess?

 

Oh, I thought you meant the same team.

 

Regardless, there's nothing really close. Even Yakupov put up more points. Hischier & Patrick have both faced injuries. (Patrick is my Chase Change-of-Scenery Toyota Trade Deadline target for this seasons deadline)

[Phil]

Oh, I thought you meant the same team.

 

Regardless, there's nothing really close. Even Yakupov put up more points. Hischier & Patrick have both faced injuries. (Patrick is my Chase Change-of-Scenery Toyota Trade Deadline target for this seasons deadline)

 

:rofl:

 

I'd 100% buy low on him as a reclamation project.

[Capt]

I think it has to be said that Laf has not been able to see his family in months. He is still a kid, like a literal child. He's in NYC, first overall, pressure, and he hasn't seen his family at all. That has to take a toll. Not sure what Kaakos living situation is but I would imagine his isn't much better having language issues too.

 

Still though it's beyond worrisome how these guys have performed. By all means it's early but to be honest it's the biggest reason for a coaching change. Maybe it has nothing to do with Quinn. However This rebuild is going to be on the backs of these two kids. Their success and development is far and away the most important thing for this franchise. Changing coaches is a must just to see if somebody else can unlock the potential. I'm not saying this season but if by mid point next year they aren't making massive strides, Quinn has to go.

[Long live the King]

If we're trying to compare them to previous draft years you have to factor in loosing nearly a year of playing/practice time. Laf lost the playoffs of his draft year, no prospect tournament, no real training camp, no preseason. Sucks but nothing you can do about it. For 18 year olds that's a pretty big advantage for his comparables.

 

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[Phil]

I think it has to be said that Laf has not been able to see his family in months. He is still a kid, like a literal child. He's in NYC, first overall, pressure, and he hasn't seen his family at all. That has to take a toll. Not sure what Kaakos living situation is but I would imagine his isn't much better having language issues too.

 

Still though it's beyond worrisome how these guys have performed. By all means it's early but to be honest it's the biggest reason for a coaching change. Maybe it has nothing to do with Quinn. However This rebuild is going to be on the backs of these two kids. Their success and development is far and away the most important thing for this franchise. Changing coaches is a must just to see if somebody else can unlock the potential. I'm not saying this season but if by mid point next year they aren't making massive strides, Quinn has to go.

 

I wouldn't wait that long. Change guard this summer.

 

 

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[Keirik]

If we're trying to compare them to previous draft years you have to factor in loosing nearly a year of playing/practice time. Laf lost the playoffs of his draft year, no prospect tournament, no real training camp, no preseason. Sucks but nothing you can do about it. For 18 year olds that's a pretty big advantage for his comparables.

 

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Can we compare him to Stutzle then? And ALF is 19 btw, same age as Stutzle.

[Cash or Czech]

I'm not labeling them flops. I'm saying they've flopped in the NHL thus far. Again, go do the basic legwork on that list I provided. Almost all of those players taken first- or second-overall were impact players by their sophomore season. The majority of 1OAs were impact players immediately. Even Yakupov put up 17 goals in his first year.

 

I know you aren’t, and neither am I. But it’s concerning looking at all of their direct comparisons

 

 

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[Capt]

I wouldn't wait that long. Change guard this summer.

 

 

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I'm with you. Just not sure the Rangers feel the same way.

[Long live the King]

Can we compare him to Stutzle then? And ALF is 19 btw, same age as Stutzle.

He's 19 now. He was 18 when is draft season ended and throughout the summer of missed development.

 

Stutzle has 2 more goals and 10 more points. He's also -14. He's not really blowing Laf out of the water.

 

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[BrooksBurner]

He's 19 now. He was 18 when is draft season ended and throughout the summer of missed development.

 

Stutzle has 2 more goals and 10 more points. He's also -14. He's not really blowing Laf out of the water.

 

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A 50 point pace is blowing Laf's 23 point pace out of the water. As mediocre as the Rangers have been, they are a much better team than Ottawa and it's not even close. Plus/minus alone is a relatively outdated metric to use by itself these days. It requires significant context around it.

[LindG1000]

A 50 point pace is blowing Laf's 23 point pace out of the water. As mediocre as the Rangers have been, they are a much better team than Ottawa and it's not even close. Plus/minus alone is a relatively outdated metric to use by itself these days. It requires significant context around it.

 

I think there's a ton more context here: Stutzle is a fucking awful forward defensively on a fucking awful team defensively in a division that straight up does not play defense. Couple that with fewer players of remote quality ahead of him on the depth chart, actual pp1 time, and ~16 minutes of ice time per game and you've got a recipe for Tim Stutzle blowing Lafreniere's pace out of the water.

[BrooksBurner]

I think there's a ton more context here: Stutzle is a fucking awful forward defensively on a fucking awful team defensively in a division that straight up does not play defense. Couple that with fewer players of remote quality ahead of him on the depth chart, actual pp1 time, and ~16 minutes of ice time per game and you've got a recipe for Tim Stutzle blowing Lafreniere's pace out of the water.

 

Lafreniere has 0 points in 51 minutes of PP time. Sutzle has 6 PP points in 84 minutes.

 

0 points in almost a full game's worth of hockey on the man advantage. Let that sink in. I think he'll still be a good player, but for the second year in a row we were sold a bag of goods for far more than it was worth. Either that, or Quinn is sandbagging them. Or both.

[Pete]

A 50 point pace is blowing Laf's 23 point pace out of the water. As mediocre as the Rangers have been, they are a much better team than Ottawa and it's not even close. Plus/minus alone is a relatively outdated metric to use by itself these days. It requires significant context around it.

 

Took a look at both player's stats this morning.

 

Stutzle is getting over a minute more PP time per game than Laf, and Stutzle is on the #1 unit. He's 2nd on his team in PPP with 6, where Laf gets less than a minute as the #2 unit usually gets on with about 40 seconds left on the PP. Laf has 0 PPP.

 

Stutzle also has 30 more shots than Laf does in only 1 more game. Laf's xGF is 10.4 and Stutzle is 6, suggesting he's much more of a chucker than Laf is. We've even seen in the highlights, Stutzle takes some bad shots and goalies let in some bad goals. Laf seems less apt to take those bad shots.

 

Laf's xGA is 6, Stutzle is 13.

 

Laf's on ice shooting percentage is 6, were Stutzle is almost 10....thanks, Kakko!

 

Sure, the box car stats are what they are, but which player is being developed, and which one is just freewheeling and doesn't know what defense is?

[Keirik]

He's 19 now. He was 18 when is draft season ended and throughout the summer of missed development.

 

Stutzle has 2 more goals and 10 more points. He's also -14. He's not really blowing Laf out of the water.

 

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Turned 19 before the season started. What does the age at draft have to do with anything? Stutzle is younger.

You must not have watched any of Stutzle. He looks light years ahead. And yeah, I would say 18 points compare to 8 is blowing him out of the water in comparison.

[BrooksBurner]

Took a look at both player's stats this morning.

 

Stutzle is getting over a minute more PP time per game than Laf, and Stutzle is on the #1 unit. He's 2nd on his team in PPP with 6, where Laf gets less than a minute as the #2 unit usually gets on with about 40 seconds left on the PP. Laf has 0 PPP.

 

Stutzle also has 30 more shots than Laf does in only 1 more game. Laf's xGF is 10.4 and Stutzle is 6, suggesting he's much more of a chucker than Laf is. We've even seen in the highlights, Stutzle takes some bad shots and goalies let in some bad goals. Laf seems less apt to take those bad shots.

 

Laf's xGA is 6, Stutzle is 13.

 

Laf's on ice shooting percentage is 6, were Stutzle is almost 10....thanks, Kakko!

 

Sure, the box car stats are what they are, but which player is being developed, and which one is just freewheeling and doesn't know what defense is?

 

Where did you get the xGF/xGA stats? I see much different on evolving-hockey.com (Stutzle: 14.59 xGF, 19.95 xGA, Lafreniere: 15.39 xGF, 14.5 xGA). Even so, I agree that there's no denying Stutzle's advanced metrics are worse than Lafreniere's. But they shouldn't be used without context. Ottawa is objectively terrible. Stutzle is still making the most of it on a bad team.

 

Re: shooting percentage, have you considered Stutzle is just a better shooter and scorer than Lafreniere? I don't think there was any denying that even when they were prospects. That was Stutzle's forte. It's translating to the NHL, while Lafreniere's playmaking abilities have not, to this point. In fact, I'm pretty sure Stutzle has also shown glimpses of being a better playmaker at the NHL level. This pass just happened a few days ago. More skill than Lafreniere has flashed all season.

 

[BrooksBurner]

Imagine if the Rangers privately turned down Tkachuk and #3 for #1...

[Dunny]

Fuck the stats, just watch them. There's a noticeable difference in talent between Hughes and Kakko. Hughes also plays the hardest position, and Kakko, the easiest. Kakko has made strides in other areas, he controls the boards well, and gets posession. So did Marcel Hossa. He still can't skate, and he still can't shoot. Hughes can do both of those.

 

Lafreniere is just in the first stage of having all the excuses made for him. It can be hard to see through the excuse smokescreen, but ultimately I don't see a truly premium, top tier, talent. He's not great at anything, he was fantastic in junior, at possessing the physical and mental maturity of an overager. He also plays an easy position, so no bonus points.

 

I'm ready to stick my neck out a bit and put it on the record. These are 50-65 point wingers, probably each with a career year, or two, where they exceed that, but who cares, so is Mike Hoffman.

[Dunny]

The hardest part of the GM role has to be cutting bait. Not in the sense that the players are busts, and should be moved, but more so understanding that these are cogs in the wheel, and not two guys you can drop everything and build around. I think that would be a disaster.

[Pete]

Where did you get the xGF/xGA stats? I see much different on evolving-hockey.com (Stutzle: 14.59 xGF, 19.95 xGA, Lafreniere: 15.39 xGF, 14.5 xGA). Even so, I agree that there's no denying Stutzle's advanced metrics are worse than Lafreniere's. But they shouldn't be used without context. Ottawa is objectively terrible. Stutzle is still making the most of it on a bad team.

 

Re: shooting percentage, have you considered Stutzle is just a better shooter and scorer than Lafreniere? I don't think there was any denying that even when they were prospects. That was Stutzle's forte. It's translating to the NHL, while Lafreniere's playmaking abilities have not, to this point. In fact, I'm pretty sure Stutzle has also shown glimpses of being a better playmaker at the NHL level. This pass just happened a few days ago. More skill than Lafreniere has flashed all season.

 

 

Got stats from https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/s/stuetti02.html

 

I don't know what the context of the team has anything to do with it, but on ice shooting percentage is the SH% of the team when he's on the is, not individual shooting percentages (both players are around 10% shooters)...The team shoots well below the league average when Laf is on the ice. That's a result of playing with players like Kakko, Zib, or lesser players for most of the games. The Rangers shoot 10% as a team, but 6% when Laf is out there. Conversely, Ottawa shoots 8% as a team, but 10+ when Stutzle is out there. That shows me that Laf would probably have a few more apples if he linemates buried their chances.

[Dunny]

Got stats from https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/s/stuetti02.html

 

I don't know what the context of the team has anything to do with it, but on ice shooting percentage is the SH% of the team when he's on the is, not individual shooting percentages (both players are around 10% shooters)...The team shoots well below the league average when Laf is on the ice. That's a result of playing with players like Kakko, Zib, or lesser players for most of the games. The Rangers shoot 10% as a team, but 6% when Laf is out there. Conversely, Ottawa shoots 8% as a team, but 10+ when Stutzle is out there. That shows me that Laf would probably have a few more apples if he linemates buried their chances.

 

Maybe, but I can't recall any particular set up he authored that was blown.

 

I can recall a few he was set up on tbe he blew, though.

[BrooksBurner]

Got stats from https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/s/stuetti02.html

 

I don't know what the context of the team has anything to do with it, but on ice shooting percentage is the SH% of the team when he's on the is, not individual shooting percentages (both players are around 10% shooters)...The team shoots well below the league average when Laf is on the ice. That's a result of playing with players like Kakko, Zib, or lesser players for most of the games. The Rangers shoot 10% as a team, but 6% when Laf is out there. Conversely, Ottawa shoots 8% as a team, but 10+ when Stutzle is out there. That shows me that Laf would probably have a few more apples if he linemates buried their chances.

 

You are still using team based stats to paint a picture of Stutzle when Ottawa is clearly a much worse team than the Rangers. Regardless, it makes sense to me that team shooting metrics are higher than team average when Stutzle is on the ice, since he shoots the puck, and team shooting metrics are lower when Lafreniere is on the ice because he doesn't shoot the puck. Stutzle gets rewarded for it on the scoresheet. That's hockey.

[josh]

Fuck the stats, just watch them. There's a noticeable difference in talent between Hughes and Kakko. Hughes also plays the hardest position, and Kakko, the easiest. Kakko has made strides in other areas, he controls the boards well, and gets posession. So did Marcel Hossa. He still can't skate, and he still can't shoot. Hughes can do both of those.

 

Lafreniere is just in the first stage of having all the excuses made for him. It can be hard to see through the excuse smokescreen, but ultimately I don't see a truly premium, top tier, talent. He's not great at anything, he was fantastic in junior, at possessing the physical and mental maturity of an overager. He also plays an easy position, so no bonus points.

 

I'm ready to stick my neck out a bit and put it on the record. These are 50-65 point wingers, probably each with a career year, or two, where they exceed that, but who cares, so is Mike Hoffman.

 

I'm hoping for Alfredsson and Marian Hossa... I guess. And I hate those guys. damn it.

[Pete]

You are still using team based stats to paint a picture of Stutzle when Ottawa is clearly a much worse team than the Rangers. Regardless, it makes sense to me that team shooting metrics are higher than team average when Stutzle is on the ice, since he shoots the puck, and team shooting metrics are lower when Lafreniere is on the ice because he doesn't shoot the puck. Stutzle gets rewarded for it on the scoresheet. That's hockey.

 

Well, yes we already established that Stutzle is a chucker. Lafreniere was on the ice for 4 more HDCF than Stutzle yet Stutzle has 30 more shots? That says to me that a lot of pucks just get thrown on net when Stutzle is out there, that doesn't make them good offensive plays.

 

Also, offensively the Rangers are not very different from Sens.

 

NYR 2.93 / OTT 2.58 goals for.

NYR 29.6 / OTT 31.8 shots per game

NYR 15.1/ OTT 14.7 PP%

 

The big differences are that Ottawa can't PK, bleeds shots, and can't keep pucks out of the net. They're at the bottom of the league in all 3 categories. So when talking offensive production, team isn't a factor as they are offensively similar.

 

 

I don't really care who had the best first 30 games of their career, either. It's way too early to judge the #1 vs #3+Tkachuk especially when he's shown no development in 3 years. He's on pace for the same statline this year as previous 2, 71 games/45 points.

[Long live the King]

Turned 19 before the season started. What does the age at draft have to do with anything? Stutzle is younger.

You must not have watched any of Stutzle. He looks light years ahead. And yeah, I would say 18 points compare to 8 is blowing him out of the water in comparison.

Why are you so bent on arguing the age. I said he missed out on a lot of playing when he was 18. That's October 2019 to October 2020. I know when he turned 19.

 

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[Keirik]

Why are you so bent on arguing the age. I said he missed out on a lot of playing when he was 18. That's October 2019 to October 2020. I know when he turned 19.

 

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I’m not. You brought up his age, which I corrected to be actually 19, same age yet a bit older than Stutzle. I don’t think it matters all that much either way but I’m not sure why you wouldn’t just say 19 since he never played an NHL game until after he turned 19.