The Dude Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 I think that's fair. But like AJ said, Hayes is very tradeable. If he's under contract, that only improves the return you'd get for him. 5x$5m is an absolute steal for Hayes, and $5.5 is a pretty team-friendly ask. I know some don't like him b/c reasons, but that is a ton of value for what he brings to the table. He's got room to grow, of course, but I think it's a no-brainer. Ryan O'Reilly makes $7.5 in the same role as Hayes with significantly less 5v5 production. Signing him long term ensures some kind of no movement clause is inserted. If he's so valuable trade him now. IMO, he's not a 2nd line center. He's not a set up man, he's not a goal scorer, he doesn't make anyone on his line better. He's an opportunistic 3rd line center. I'm shocked at his production numbers. Offensuvely, he a god damn mess on the ice. He seems so inept when he gains the blue line. Just skates into the corner. Never to the net, never to a shooting position. How the fuck has this guy flirted with 50 points!??? I really don't want to keep him here to be a shut down center at 5 mill, when I feel Andersson will take on that role soon. If not him, then Howden. If not Howden, who cares? Go with Nieves... They didn't want to pay Hagelin to be a defensive specialist who put in 35-40 points and did dick on the PP. And that was the right choice. Make that choice again. But this time get something. Please? Don't want em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Guess how many non-ELC centers scored 25 goals last year but make less than $5m per year. Now guess how many of them had multiple 25-goal seasons before they signed a deal for less than $5m per. Now guess how many of them have a OZS% in the 40s. 8, 11 75. How'd I do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooksBurner Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Signing him long term ensures some kind of no movement clause is inserted. If he's so valuable trade him now. IMO, he's not a 2nd line center. He's not a set up man, he's not a goal scorer, he doesn't make anyone on his line better. He's an opportunistic 3rd line center. I'm shocked at his production numbers. Offensuvely, he a god damn mess on the ice. He seems so inept when he gains the blue line. Just skates into the corner. Never to the net, never to a shooting position. How the fuck has this guy flirted with 50 points!??? I really don't want to keep him here to be a shut down center at 5 mill, when I feel Andersson will take on that role soon. If not him, then Howden. If not Howden, who cares? Go with Nieves... They didn't want to pay Hagelin to be a defensive specialist who put in 35-40 points and did dick on the PP. And that was the right choice. Make that choice again. But this time get something. Please? Don't want em. Much of this is pretty accurate. The guy has been here 4 years, and the ice time goes up but the production does not. He wasn't overly good his first three years. I would argue his spot could have been taken on numerous occasions. Last year was the first year where I felt he was being a productive member on ice and he was pretty good at the role he needed to fill, which was to be a shutdown defensive 3rd line center. I'm having trouble with a 5x5 deal because he could just as easily regress as he could get better, and then we are stuck with it. And no, I don't agree with the people saying it's an easy contract to get rid of. If he regresses enough (say sub 40 points), I don't believe it would be easy to get rid of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 And how much can a 26 year old fatso improve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Much of this is pretty accurate. The guy has been here 4 years, and the ice time goes up but the production does not. He wasn't overly good his first three years. I would argue his spot could have been taken on numerous occasions. Last year was the first year where I felt he was being a productive member on ice and he was pretty good at the role he needed to fill, which was to be a shutdown defensive 3rd line center. I'm having trouble with a 5x5 deal because he could just as easily regress as he could get better, and then we are stuck with it. And no, I don't agree with the people saying it's an easy contract to get rid of. If he regresses enough (say sub 40 points), I don't believe it would be easy to get rid of. 0.57, 0.46, 0.64, 0.58 P/GP averages in each of the last four years. 17, 14, 17, 25 goals over the same span. There's progress there. Especially for a player who has been relied on in a heavy defensive checking role. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 And how much can a 26 year old fatso improve? The end of the season was a glimpse. And it’s not like his game is incredibly physically taxing on the body. He could have 10 + more seasons in him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThirtyONE Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Guess how many non-ELC centers scored 25 goals last year but make less than $5m per year. Now guess how many of them had multiple 25-goal seasons before they signed a deal for less than $5m per. Now guess how many of them have a OZS% in the 40s. What does this even mean? Non-ELCs? That's not quantifiable. Look, I'm not some capologist and I'm not a corsi guy. I don't care what his offensive zone start percentage is. It means almost nothing when you evaluate the stats that matter. He was a fucking bum last year until the season was officially lost. 15 points before January as (supposedly) a 2nd line center. He went on a tear when the season was dead. When it didn't matter. He doesn't get 5 million dollars for that. Not if it's up to me, anyway. He could be the 3rd line center as soon as next season and the 4th line center the season after that. He's just not that good. He's never scored 50 points even when given ample opportunity to prove himself. I'm glad he became a shut down guy, that's great. But you don't pay that player 5m dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Offensive zone start percentage has nothing to do with corsi, and Entry-level contacts are quantifiable. You're literally responding to empirical data with feelings. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooksBurner Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 0.57, 0.46, 0.64, 0.58 P/GP averages in each of the last four years. 17, 14, 17, 25 goals over the same span. There's progress there. Especially for a player who has been relied on in a heavy defensive checking role. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk For me it is more than just about goals. What about assists and overall point totals year over year? And the increase in ice time over those years? Why hasn't point production gone up with more ice time? That 25 goal total looks closer to an outlier more than a new norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 For me it is more than just about goals. What about assists and overall point totals year over year? And the increase in ice time over those years? Why hasn't point production gone up with more ice time? That 25 goal total looks closer to an outlier more than a new norm. He's one of the strongest 5v5 point producers in the entire league. https://www.blueshirtbanter.com/2018/4/18/17242948/nhl-new-york-rangers-are-in-precarious-position-with-kevin-hayes-mika-zibanejad Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThirtyONE Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 Offensive zone start percentage has nothing to do with corsi, and Entry-level contacts are quantifiable. You're literally responding to empirical data with feelings. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk My fault, I miss understood the acronym for some reason. My point is, I'm not measuring him against other players within specific categories, I'm measuring him to all other NHL standards. Add the wild swings of inconsistency and flat out laziness and I don't even consider it. I've made no mistake about it, I hate the player. I think he's a moron. I wouldn't pay him $5 let alone 5m. But if he's going to be a 3rd line center on the team, it either can't be for 5 years or it can't be for 5 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 OK, but the facts don't align with your aspersions. You just don't want the player. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooksBurner Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 He's one of the strongest 5v5 point producers in the entire league. https://www.blueshirtbanter.com/2018/4/18/17242948/nhl-new-york-rangers-are-in-precarious-position-with-kevin-hayes-mika-zibanejad Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk There are two sides to every story. That article is heavily slanted towards one side, leaving more questions than it tries to answer. It also does a tremendous job at cherry picking stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 The important thing to remember here is that the cap hit is relative to the cap. Percentage of cap is a far more valuable metric to be mindful of rather than the number alone. A $5 million AAV signed for a near $80 million cap ceiling isn't equal to a $5 million AAV signed under $71.4 or $73 million. This. I think some people hear 5m and thinks it more than it actually is. The cap has increased significantly the last years (especially this year), so 5m now is not 5m five years ago. Should start to focus on how many percentages of the cap a contract will be, instead of the number. The number in itself is irrelevant for us fans - Hayes could get 20m a year for all I care as long as he dont take up much of the cap space we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 And this is why (sadly) Hayes is worth roughly the same amount in today?s NHL. Rangers will have to fork it out....or move him. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Future Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 My fault, I miss understood the acronym for some reason. My point is, I'm not measuring him against other players within specific categories, I'm measuring him to all other NHL standards. Add the wild swings of inconsistency and flat out laziness and I don't even consider it. I've made no mistake about it, I hate the player. I think he's a moron. I wouldn't pay him $5 let alone 5m. But if he's going to be a 3rd line center on the team, it either can't be for 5 years or it can't be for 5 million. You said "you pay for goals." That's the metric you used. Measured against other NHL players who score 25 goals, and take on the workload he does, $5m is low. Just say you don't like him for the 10 millionth time and be done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 You can hate the player as much as you want, but you cant deny that he's worth 5m. Shutdown/PK'ing, 25 goals scoring center is worth that much in todays NHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozzy Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 I don't "hate" Hayes at all, but after reading all the positives you guys listed, I think this guy would be tremendous trade bait at the deadline to see if we can get a #1 and then some next season from a team on the bubble. I don't see Hayes as anything more than a #2 center and really not a physical one either....especially for his size. I cannot discount his stats and he definitely has some good value. I say deal him and get either a top young talent or a #1 from a near bottom feeder at this year's deadline. Because I just don't see Hayes even being in his prime by the time the Rangers are going to be a factor again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 I don't "hate" Hayes at all, but after reading all the positives you guys listed, I think this guy would be tremendous trade bait at the deadline to see if we can get a #1 and then some next season from a team on the bubble. I don't see Hayes as anything more than a #2 center and really not a physical one either....especially for his size. I cannot discount his stats and he definitely has some good value. I say deal him and get either a top young talent or a #1 from a near bottom feeder at this year's deadline. Because I just don't see Hayes even being in his prime by the time the Rangers are going to be a factor again. I partly agree, and the fact that we have Chytil, Lias and Howden waiting makes Hayes expendable, but there is no need to rush it. Sign him now for 5x5 and listen to offers come deadline day. If no one offer us atleast a 1st and a prospect we say no and reassess at the '19 draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Future Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 I don't "hate" Hayes at all, but after reading all the positives you guys listed, I think this guy would be tremendous trade bait at the deadline to see if we can get a #1 and then some next season from a team on the bubble. I don't see Hayes as anything more than a #2 center and really not a physical one either....especially for his size. I cannot discount his stats and he definitely has some good value. I say deal him and get either a top young talent or a #1 from a near bottom feeder at this year's deadline. Because I just don't see Hayes even being in his prime by the time the Rangers are going to be a factor again. The problem is you have to sign him before you get to the deadline, though I agree that you'd get a strong return for him there. No bottom team is going to give a top pick for him, otherwise I'd think the Rangers would have already done it. Therein lies the rub with Hayes. He's not quite what Rangers fans want him to be, not quite young enough for a rebuilding team, and not quite under contract enough to be a deadline move lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozzy Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 The problem is you have to sign him before you get to the deadline, though I agree that you'd get a strong return for him there. No bottom team is going to give a top pick for him, otherwise I'd think the Rangers would have already done it. Therein lies the rub with Hayes. He's not quite what Rangers fans want him to be, not quite young enough for a rebuilding team, and not quite under contract enough to be a deadline move lol Exactly, my good man!! I thought he was under contract for this year already...my mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giacomin Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 This is all good, but the plan is almost 99% certain that they sign him to 4-5 year deal. It doesn't seem that the parties are that far apart that some oddball compromise (like a 3 year deal) happens. Assume he will have a contract. Then we get to watch him play in 2018 with the new NY Rangers and assess from there. The wildcard is he is part of a big deal. Trouba is a player the Rangers would include Hayes for, beyond that I haven't heard rumors of interest in any other top line/pair player. Brooks will mention this within 10 days and we'll start a thread about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 You can hate the player as much as you want, but you cant deny that he's worth 5m. Shutdown/PK'ing, 25 goals scoring center is worth that much in todays NHL.Didn't you just do that with Miller LOL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRangers723 Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 This was always the case. He scored 25 goals, won over half his draws, plays on the PP and PK. That's the rate, really. agreed. Thats what i expected the contract to be. Between 5 and 5.5 million fits the production Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 The end of the season was a glimpse. And it’s not like his game is incredibly physically taxing on the body. He could have 10 + more seasons in him. I'm not holding my breath that this guy will be putting in 25 goals a year from here on out. The team sucked, he got more ice time, he scored more goals the team lost. Bad... I'm never going to hop on board the bandwagon of a player that I feel is mediocre offensively, after he puts in more goals than usual on a shitty team. His career year still had the Rangers miss the playoffs and rip the guts from the team to rebuild. Obviously it's not like he's the sole reason why they had to tear it down, but.... To get his best, the Rangers were at their worst. We want to build around that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.