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2017-2018 NYR Postseason Fate (Personal Opinion)


fletch
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2016-2017 NYR Postseason Fate (Personal Opinion)

Since the Rangers have played 29 games, we've got some information on what kind of season they are going to have. I'm interested in your opinion of how the 2017-2018 postseason will go, how likely each of the following scenarios are:

 

Win Stanley Cup: A%

Lose in SCF or ECF: B%

Lose in second round: C%

Lose in first round: D%

Miss playoffs: E%

 

A+B+C+D+E should equal 100%

 

You can post multiple times in this thread, as your opinion changes, but wait at least 1 week between posts. That way, you are not reacting to just a good game or two, or a bad game or two.

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Win Stanley Cup: 0%

Lose in SCF or ECF: 0%

Lose in second round: 10%

Lose in first round: 40%

Miss playoffs: 50%

 

I'm really down on our chances right now. Cluster of good (but not great) teams that will all be fighting for a wild card spot, we need to play better to separate ourselves in the standings and get above the fray.

 

Otherwise, it's going to be fighting tooth and nail for 80+ games just to make the playoffs.

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Win Stanley Cup: 0%

Lose in SCF or ECF: 0%

Lose in second round: 10%

Lose in first round: 40%

Miss playoffs: 50%

 

I'm really down on our chances right now. Cluster of good (but not great) teams that will all be fighting for a wild card spot, we need to play better to separate ourselves in the standings and get above the fray.

 

Otherwise, it's going to be fighting tooth and nail for 80+ games just to make the playoffs.

Play better than winning roughly 85% of their last month's games?

 

Not sure if this is possible for any team in the NHL

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Post season fate to me is the ultimate arbiter to me, especially when we are this close but feel sometimes so far away.

Since Oct. 26, the Rangers lead the NHL in goal differential (plus-22; 73-51),

are tied for the NHL lead in wins (14),

and rank second in the NHL (and lead the Eastern Conference) in points percentage (.737).

NYR Stats & Info‏Verified account @NYRStatsInfo

I got the tweet gem above from

NYR Stats & Info‏Verified account @NYRStatsInfo

and I was pleasantly surprised to see the goal differential numbers, because these days, to me at least thay are one of my markers for likelihood of post-season success.

 

I don't watch enough other teams from their fans' perspective to see their flaws the same way I see our flaws.

 

The question to me is, can our goalscoring out score our tendency to blow leads in the late stages of must-win playoff games. And that question to me still hinges on three things

1) Team defense getting their coverage problems sorted out

2) clearing the zone more effectively when under sustained pressure

3) Hank being better than the other teams' goaltenders in those close tight must-win playoff-deciding games

4) Improvement form our D-corps

 

So as much as I think our scoring prowess is showing signs of some dominance as evidenced by gaudy stats since the season's opening horrendous streak, I have dinged-up and dented faith in Hank being better than the other teams' goaltenders in those close tight must-win playoff-deciding games. I think the track record of coming up short in those situations the last few years has become a concern ... but I still think he can put in a once-in a lifetime streak of (if it came to that) sufficient excellence in the playoffs.

 

What do I think the odds of Hank doing that are, though?

 

I think it's a crapshoot.

 

As for Team Defense, D-Corps, and low-down Coverage problems under pressure; I don't see them going away without divine intervention.

 

Ultimately then, to me, this means we have to be able to outscore every goaltending and defensive porosity problem we may encounter. Which take us back to those numbers. They look nice in late November/early December, but what will they be in May/June?

That is so far off it's almost ridiculous to try to commit to any prediction. However, based on how we're playing now and all that chit, I would see an ECF or even SCF exit based on the tendency to break down below the slot to the goalmouth under sustained pressure. That's the part that needs to improve now, not the scoring.

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As for Team Defense, D-Corps, and low-down Coverage problems under pressure; I don't see them going away without divine intervention.

 

Ultimately then, to me, this means we have to be able to outscore every goaltending and defensive porosity problem we may encounter. Which take us back to those numbers. They look nice in late November/early December, but what will they be in May/June?

That is so far off it's almost ridiculous to try to commit to any prediction. However, based on how we're playing now and all that chit, I would see an ECF or even SCF exit based on the tendency to break down below the slot to the goalmouth under sustained pressure. That's the part that needs to improve now, not the scoring.

Well, they've had a number of games recently where the coverage issues have been much better. It's as much a focus thing with this team as anything. I agree it's to early to try to predict, but I think this team is exactly as it's been for AV's tenure...they can beat anyone and lose to anyone. At it's peak, this team is as good as any in hockey but, for whatever reason, it's rare that the Offense, Defense and Goaltending are clicking at the same time.

 

And every team, especially in the East, has holes. Even Tampa - as good as they've been - has a pretty dreary D corps after that top pair and CBJ doesn't have much depth scoring. In the cap era, it's hard to find a team without flaws.

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Win Stanley Cup: 3%

Lose in SCF or ECF: 17%

Lose in second round: 45%

Lose in first round: 25%

Miss playoffs: 10%

 

I don't think the East is particularly strong, in the sense that I don't think there's a team in our conference, especially in our division, that we can't beat in a best of 7 series. That said I'm less enthusiastic this year than in years past.

 

If we are the last WC spot, it'll be tough to beat Tampa if they end up there. Toronto would be tough as well but we probably wouldn't play them unless they win the division and we're that last spot anyway, which I don't think will happen.

 

If we have to go through our own division, I think we are very capable of going to the Conference finals. From there it's anyones guess. I mean the Penguins won the cup last year but they were game 7 2OT against ottawa before that. One little bounce the wrong way could have totally changed last season. Anything can happen once you get that far, which is why I gave a little 3 percent bump for the cup.

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I think there is a one in three chance they miss the playoffs. Beyond that, it's such a crap shoot in hockey. There are often dark horses who make runs but they almost always fall short in the end. Ottawa was last year's dark horse and look at them now. It's pretty hard to write off the Rangers when Ottawa went to the second overtime in game 7 of the Conference Finals. North Stars 1981 and 1991, Canucks 1982 and 1994, Flyers 2010 etc. They all seem to fall short. The exception is L.A., but they turned out to be a team that was just really well built for the playoffs rather than the regular season for a number of years. There's no reason the Rangers can't get hot and go to the finals, but I don't see them winning it all. Certainly not without #27 getting his health and game together. Final note: Canadiens 1986 and 1993: where the 500 pound gorilla gets upset early and the seas part, a relatively unexceptional team can jump in a win the cup even when they weren't the ones who slayed the dragon.
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  • 3 weeks later...

Win Stanley Cup: 0%

Lose in SCF or ECF: 1%

Lose in second round: 9%

Lose in first round: 50%

Miss playoffs: 40%

 

Lundqvist putting together a solid stretch, more reason for optimism there.

 

Team has a hard time playing a full 60 minutes. Will look great for a period, like they can beat anyone. Follow it up with a low intensity dud. Until I see more consistent effort, hard for me to be optimistic for a full 7 game series and for a playoff run.

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Win Stanley Cup: 0%

Lose in SCF or ECF: 1%

Lose in second round: 9%

Lose in first round: 50%

Miss playoffs: 40%

 

Lundqvist putting together a solid stretch, more reason for optimism there.

 

Team has a hard time playing a full 60 minutes. Will look great for a period, like they can beat anyone. Follow it up with a low intensity dud. Until I see more consistent effort, hard for me to be optimistic for a full 7 game series and for a playoff run.

 

That's the puzzling part.

"How much do some really want it?" is the question I struggle with. In the same breath as "do some of them really know how much is required to go all the way?" and "are they all willing to battle that hard?"

I think you can have all the skill in the world, but if you don't have the requisite battle level, it's pissing in the wind.

 

We have Fast, Kreider, Lundqvist, McDonagh, Miller, Nash, Staal and Zuccarello left from 2014 — they have the "knowledge," at least of what is required. And they all should still have even more motivation, I hope. (https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/NYR/2014.html) although wear and tear has impacted Kreider, Staal McDonagh and Lundqvist, and possibly Nash.

 

As for the new guys, Shatty I'm sure will find plenty of motivation, what of the rest ... I have not given it much detailed thought...

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Team has a hard time playing a full 60 minutes. Will look great for a period, like they can beat anyone. Follow it up with a low intensity dud. Until I see more consistent effort, hard for me to be optimistic for a full 7 game series and for a playoff run.

But this is every team in the league. The good ones manage to win games despite that and, outside of the first couple weeks, the Rangers are one of those teams.

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But this is every team in the league. The good ones manage to win games despite that and, outside of the first couple weeks, the Rangers are one of those teams.

 

chicago looked good for all sixty minutes against us... rangers have shown that they can sometimes win even when taking a period or two off... but the ottawa series was there for the taking, and this team won’t be able to make a deep run without playing with consistent effort, and they can’t just flip a switch once the playoffs start and unlearn 82 games of bad habits

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Win Stanley Cup: 0%

Lose in SCF or ECF: 0%

Lose in second round: 20%

Lose in first round: 60%

Miss playoffs: 20%

 

History will repeat itself. We will all be here after getting smoked by Tampa saying the same things we've said for two summers: "Fire AV" "Trade Hank" "Rebuild" Etc. The writing is already on the wall.

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  • 1 month later...

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