confirmed: EDM Re-Sign F Leon Draisaitl to 8-Year/$68M Extension; $8.5M AAV

[Kevin]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2727839-leon-draisaitl-oilers-agree-to-8-year-68-million-contract-extension

 

$8.5 million cap hit a season. I think it's a little less than what was initially expected but now that over $20 million for just two players each season.

[Valriera]

Jesus christ that is banking on these guys in a huge way. But...if they are the next Crosby/Malkin which by all measures they could be, it's absolutely going to be worth it.

[Phil]

I don't have a problem with it at all. I think for the longest time the market was precisely backwards, making young players play for pennies (figuratively speaking) during their most productive years only to award them a big ticket, long-term contract once they reached the age of 27, at which point they began their statistical declines and offered teams far fewer years of the same or similar production.

 

I'd rather pay Draisaitl $8.5M from the ages of 22 to 28 than from 28 to 35.

[Valriera]

I'd rather pay Draisaitl $8.5M from the ages of 22 to 28 than from 28 to 35.

 

Well...yeah. But all of that is assuming that ages 22 to 28 merit such a contract from 28 to 35, on which there is no guarantee. So with a crystal ball of course it is better, but they could also be stuck with a Chris Kreider for that money, which would deeply suck.

[Kevin]

I don't have a problem with it at all. I think for the longest time the market was precisely backwards, making young players play for pennies (figuratively speaking) during their most productive years only to award them a big ticket, long-term contract once they reached the age of 27, at which point they began their statistical declines and offered teams far fewer years of the same or similar production.

 

I'd rather pay Draisaitl $8.5M from the ages of 22 to 28 than from 28 to 35.

 

He's going to get paid from 28 - 35 too if performs halfway decent during this contract.

[Phil]

Well...yeah. But all of that is assuming that ages 22 to 28 merit such a contract from 28 to 35, on which there is no guarantee. So with a crystal ball of course it is better, but they could also be stuck with a Chris Kreider for that money, which would deeply suck.

 

There's no such thing as a guarantee, period. The point is that all the data over the last decade plus statistically suggest that NHL forwards are most productive between the ages of 21 and 27.

 

It's a game of risk assessment, and the common assessment suggests that you're rarely burned for paying impact talent early and often burned for paying them later.

 

 

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[Phil]

He's going to get paid from 28 - 35 too if performs halfway decent during this contract.

 

Sure, and the Oilers can walk away and let him earn a similar or greater amount for what will likely be less return and rest easy knowing they got him through his prime.

 

 

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