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Thread: Rangers Manage Expectations After Adding Panarin, Trouba, Kakko

  1. #301
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    Quote Originally Posted by CCCP View Post
    he's just one player. I don't get why you are blowing a lid over one guy. he doesn't make or break the team. in 3-4 years he'll still be in his prime
    Making $11.6m a year. Only Mcdavid makes more. His presence on the team and the cap % he takes up effects the rest of the roster. He needs to perform on a Mcdavid type pace for him to be worth it. Maybe he will but saying he’s just one player is disingenuous. Yes he’s one guy taking a huge piece of the pie.

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    And not to be misunderstood 100pts production for him to be worth what he’s being paid.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fatfrancesa View Post
    Making $11.6m a year. Only Mcdavid makes more. His presence on the team and the cap % he takes up effects the rest of the roster. He needs to perform on a Mcdavid type pace for him to be worth it. Maybe he will but saying he’s just one player is disingenuous. Yes he’s one guy taking a huge piece of the pie.
    McDavid signed for 16.7% of the cap when he signed. Panarin signed for 14.2%. So no, he doesn't have to perform on a McDavid pace. All he needs to do is continue his 25-30 goal/75-85 point seasons and he'll be worth the cost. Anything more is gravy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    McDavid signed for 16.7% of the cap when he signed. Panarin signed for 14.2%. So no, he doesn't have to perform on a McDavid pace. All he needs to do is continue his 25-30 goal/75-85 point seasons and he'll be worth the cost. Anything more is gravy.
    He’s the second highest paid player is he not? Maybe not macdavid pace but close to it. 95-100 pts. I don’t think that’s very controversial saying that. Macdavid is obviously better and signed for a higher % but panarin is being paid like a top 5 point producer. 75 pts is not that and quite frankly that would be moving the bar at this point.

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    37 players had 75 pts last year. Macdavid had 116.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    And the point of that stat is?

    That $11.6m should get you more than 75 points.

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    McDavid is a special case. There are a number of players whose salaries approach his, yet none can be said to closely approach him as a player. With UFAs, you expect to overpay. Part of that overpayment is in lieu of giving up players to get him. If Panarin were on a long term contract at say $9 million, you would have had to pay dearly in terms of players and picks to get him, and you wouldn't expect less of him than if you are paying him $11.6 million and gave up nothing for him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sod16 View Post
    McDavid is a special case. There are a number of players whose salaries approach his, yet none can be said to closely approach him as a player. With UFAs, you expect to overpay. Part of that overpayment is in lieu of giving up players to get him. If Panarin were on a long term contract at say $9 million, you would have had to pay dearly in terms of players and picks to get him, and you wouldn't expect less of him than if you are paying him $11.6 million and gave up nothing for him.
    I get that. In a cap system his contract will cost players anyway. Put that aside and I’m not asking him to win a scoring title, win a hart trophy, or anything like that. The rangers got him to be a game breaking offensive force. To say I’d expect him to be in the top 10-20 players in scoring is not asking a lot for a guy carrying the second largest contract in the league. He’s not a two way center or a defenseman. His game is scoring. I’m not saying anything that he, the team, or any other nhl commentator wouldn’t expect. Except because I’m saying it obviously has to be argued because I obviously am putting unrealistic expectations on him and of course by me just discussing panarin it’s to complain about him.

    I said 100 points another poster said 75-85. Maybe the average is the number How about 92? Is that an ok expectation without coming off like I rooting against him? I’m not. But we have a thread, this one, dedicated to expectations. We have discussed kakko, Kravtsov, trouba. All without issue. Yet we get to panarin and now it’s about motives? 92 points. Is that a fair number?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fatfrancesa View Post
    I said 100 points another poster said 75-85. Maybe the average is the number How about 92? Is that an ok expectation without coming off like I rooting against him? I’m not. But we have a thread, this one, dedicated to expectations. We have discussed kakko, Kravtsov, trouba. All without issue. Yet we get to panarin and now it’s about motives? 92 points. Is that a fair number?
    I wouldn't expect him to increase his production with the Rangers, certainly not next season. But who knows. If all goes well and the Rangers become a bonafide contender in the next 3 years it certainly isn't out of the question.
    Personally, my expectations/hopes for him is that
    - He produces similarly to what he did with CBJ, i.e around the 85 pt mark
    - He continues to be an elite play/possession driver
    - He continues to make those around him better. I would expect guys like Zib and Buch (or whoever lines up on the right wing) to have significantly improved numbers playing with Panarin.
    - He significantly improves our PP

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gravesy View Post
    I wouldn't expect him to increase his production with the Rangers, certainly not next season. But who knows. If all goes well and the Rangers become a bonafide contender in the next 3 years it certainly isn't out of the question.
    Personally, my expectations/hopes for him is that
    - He produces similarly to what he did with CBJ, i.e around the 85 pt mark
    - He continues to be an elite play/possession driver
    - He continues to make those around him better. I would expect guys like Zib and Buch (or whoever lines up on the right wing) to have significantly improved numbers playing with Panarin.
    - He significantly improves our PP
    Agree. It's ridiculous to try and quantity Panarin's value at his own point totals.

    If Zib gets to 90 points and Kakko or Buch score 30 and the PP clicks at 25%... But Panarin only has 80 points... Did he fail?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fatfrancesa View Post
    That $11.6m should get you more than 75 points.
    Panarin scored 87 points...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fatfrancesa View Post
    Heís the second highest paid player is he not? Maybe not macdavid pace but close to it. 95-100 pts. I donít think thatís very controversial saying that. Macdavid is obviously better and signed for a higher % but panarin is being paid like a top 5 point producer. 75 pts is not that and quite frankly that would be moving the bar at this point.
    You're really splitting hairs. Matthews makes $8,857 less than Panarin. Karlsson $142,857 less. The difference is negligible. There are also several players that have signed for a higher cap %, and over the course of Panarin's contract several players will sign for a higher AAV.

    Panarin is 8th in points since he entered the league and got paid accordingly. #7 is Gaudreau who will be a UFA in 2022 and turning 29 years old. He will be paid more than McDaivd.

  13. #313
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fatfrancesa View Post
    He’s the second highest paid player is he not? Maybe not macdavid pace but close to it. 95-100 pts. I don’t think that’s very controversial saying that. Macdavid is obviously better and signed for a higher % but panarin is being paid like a top 5 point producer. 75 pts is not that and quite frankly that would be moving the bar at this point.
    You have been dead set against the Panarin signing since before it even happened. Based on the energy you are still expending I would expect that no matter what he does you will declare it a failure. Nobody knows how it will work out, but how can you be a Rangers fan that is this disgruntled after this offseason? This was never going to be a slow 5 year rebuild.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tphilly5 View Post
    You have been dead set against the Panarin signing since before it even happened. Based on the energy you are still expending I would expect that no matter what he does you will declare it a failure. Nobody knows how it will work out, but how can you be a Rangers fan that is this disgruntled after this offseason? This was never going to be a slow 5 year rebuild.
    I think it's pretty easy to be a Rangers fan and not be thrilled with this offseason if you don't agree with accelerating the rebuild. I'm not, especially since I don't really buy Trouba as a #1.

    Winning the lottery probably changes things, but I don't like that they have reset expectations so quickly. I think they've put themselves in an awful tough spot if they end up being bad this year, especially if you plan on moving on from Kreider. Or, what if you're in the playoffs at the deadline, but get a big offer for Kreider? Now you're in a situation where you either sell making a run, or continuing the rebuild despite being good, similar to what CBJ did last year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tphilly5 View Post
    Nobody knows how it will work out, but how can you be a Rangers fan that is this disgruntled after this offseason? This was never going to be a slow 5 year rebuild.
    It’s also timely to ask at what point you start transitioning from rebuilding to shaping a contender.
    According to nhl.com, the Rangers have the best farm system in the league. Pronman is doing a rating series of the farm systems on The Athletic right now, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they’re top 3 there as well. The fact that this turnaround has been achieved remarkably quickly shouldn’t be used to create an argument of half assed rebuild.
    Personally, I feel like once you’ve reached a point where your farm system is seen as one of, if not the, best it’s time to start thinking about transitioning from [JD] “rebuild” to “build” [/JD]. And that probably means jumping when players like Panarin becomes available.

  16. #316
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    Someone remind me, was that us that drafted the best 1/1a prospect number 2 overall, signed a young extremely talented forward that has already proved twice already to be an 80+ point player in the league, and an all around great yet still developing 25 yr old defenseman that scored 50 points last year?

    My god man, this has been one of the best off seasons we have had in a very very long time.

  17. #317
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    How is "accelerating" the rebuild a bad thing? There is no one on the team over 30 outside of Staal and Hank and they're gone in 2 years. They signed a 28 and a 25 year old. The rebuild is still on going. These guys are proven high quality players that will be part of the core of the team for the next 7 years. Where is the issue? Even if they make the playoffs, hold on to Krieder, and let him walk in UFA. That's fine. Getting all the kids that will be in the lineup some playoff experience is a good return for keeping Krieder. The only thing that would be a screw up is if they trade prospects or their 1st rounder for a rental at the deadline.

  18. #318
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    Quote Originally Posted by Long live the King View Post
    How is "accelerating" the rebuild a bad thing? There is no one on the team over 30 outside of Staal and Hank and they're gone in 2 years. They signed a 28 and a 25 year old. The rebuild is still on going. These guys are proven high quality players that will be part of the core of the team for the next 7 years. Where is the issue? Even if they make the playoffs, hold on to Krieder, and let him walk in UFA. That's fine. Getting all the kids that will be in the lineup some playoff experience is a good return for keeping Krieder. The only thing that would be a screw up is if they trade prospects or their 1st rounder for a rental at the deadline.
    There's no such thing as accelerating a rebuild...you're either rebuilding or you're not. They're not anymore, they're trying to win.

    The issue is if this core isn't good enough to be a contender, because you've abandoned patience. The Rangers are betting that it is, and that they don't need to continue to add prospects, because you don't trade a first-round pick and spend $20m on 2 players and say, "Yea, it's ok if we suck this year." There's basically 3 scenarios that can play out in the next two years:

    1. They're a contender because all the prospects make the leap.
    2. They make the playoffs but are clearly not good enough to contend.
    3. They still suck.

    If 1 is true, you're either re-signing Kreider and getting closer to the cap or losing a major contributor (as it stands now) AND the package that he'd bring back. If 2 is true, you're stuck in the middle and trading picks/prospects to get better quickly, plus you missed out on the top of a loaded 2020 class. If 3 is true, then the Panarin and Trouba acquisitions didn't move the needle at all, and the offseason is a waste.

    I don't doubt the talent in the pipeline that this org has built, but by "accelerating," you've forfeited the ability to be patient with the group as a whole. I haven't liked the pacing of the rebuild since the Stepan trade, and they've drawn a line in the sand that this offseason changes things. That's a tough sell to me.

  19. #319
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    Quote Originally Posted by Future View Post
    I think it's pretty easy to be a Rangers fan and not be thrilled with this offseason if you don't agree with accelerating the rebuild. I'm not, especially since I don't really buy Trouba as a #1.

    Winning the lottery probably changes things, but I don't like that they have reset expectations so quickly. I think they've put themselves in an awful tough spot if they end up being bad this year, especially if you plan on moving on from Kreider. Or, what if you're in the playoffs at the deadline, but get a big offer for Kreider? Now you're in a situation where you either sell making a run, or continuing the rebuild despite being good, similar to what CBJ did last year.
    I don’t think expectations have been reset that drastically. Would be shocking to be a serious playoff contender this year with so many young unproven guys playing key roles. Panarin and Trouba will help the young guys learn and are here long term. I have not seen enough of Trouba, but if they paid him $8m per he must be pretty good. Kreider situation has to play out but he will be gone at some point. No way we pay another $50m+ wing. He is my favorite player, but I would not want to sign him out past his mid 30s even without Panarin and Kakko.

    We got a loaded top line. We got a group of exciting young guys better than any point I can think of in the last 50 years. Will be fun to watch them develop into a playoff team. Like I mentioned previously, take a look at the 2017 roster to see how much better off things are.

  20. #320
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    Quote Originally Posted by Future View Post
    There's no such thing as accelerating a rebuild...you're either rebuilding or you're not. They're not anymore, they're trying to win.

    The issue is if this core isn't good enough to be a contender, because you've abandoned patience. The Rangers are betting that it is, and that they don't need to continue to add prospects, because you don't trade a first-round pick and spend $20m on 2 players and say, "Yea, it's ok if we suck this year." There's basically 3 scenarios that can play out in the next two years:

    1. They're a contender because all the prospects make the leap.
    2. They make the playoffs but are clearly not good enough to contend.
    3. They still suck.

    If 1 is true, you're either re-signing Kreider and getting closer to the cap or losing a major contributor (as it stands now) AND the package that he'd bring back. If 2 is true, you're stuck in the middle and trading picks/prospects to get better quickly, plus you missed out on the top of a loaded 2020 class. If 3 is true, then the Panarin and Trouba acquisitions didn't move the needle at all, and the offseason is a waste.

    I don't doubt the talent in the pipeline that this org has built, but by "accelerating," you've forfeited the ability to be patient with the group as a whole. I haven't liked the pacing of the rebuild since the Stepan trade, and they've drawn a line in the sand that this offseason changes things. That's a tough sell to me.
    The moves are not about playoffs this year. They would have to be nuts to think 18 and 19 year old kids playing key roles would be ready for that. If in 3 years 30 year old Panarin and 28 year old Trouba are the leaders of a still young team ready to contend this offseason will be a huge success.

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