Re-drafting the 2020 NHL Draft: Tim Stützle and Jake Sanderson Lead Do-over

[BrooksBurner]

1 hour ago, The Dude said:

I didn't say you said Lafrenière was immovable. I Saud you make excuses for his non expanded role due to his lack of PP time and lack of better linemates. 

 

You expect a kid that was drafted in the 20s if tge 1st round to play a few games in the A and then just come here and be the guy. You're saying he hasn't made his partners better. 

 

Meanwhile youll say that the generational talent needs to be spoonfed good linemates and top ice time in order for him to be effective.  THAT guy should make his linemates better. Not the late 1st round pick D man who was hurried through the system and played for a coach who couldn't nail down any defensive structure. 

 

The combination of what Schneider brings and what he will obviously eventually bring  makes him still an untouchable.

 

You already know I think Lafrenière is VERY movable.  You aren't as on board with that notion. But I'll agree that you would move him. It's just that while he's here, you'll make all the excuses in the world for him and his inability to be a difference maker on any line he's been on as an NHLer. 

 

I don't think your using a level playing field with your expectations, is what I'm getting at. 

 

 

 

I haven't talked about him needing better linemates. I think I'm the only one here who wants him to stay with Chytil and Kakko, to keep the "kid line" chemistry intact. The irony is some of the ones (not necessarily you) who want to trade him for nothing are the ones throwing him on a line with Zibanejad.

 

I've mentioned PP time in the context that I don't look at total point production as the gauge for performance. I look at 5v5 stats. I posted some time ago that he and Kakko both underperformed their 5v5 TOI allotment and need to be better. So not an excuse, just setting the stats table fairly. Yes, I do think if he had massive chunks of PP time for 3 years, it probably would have had an impact on his development and it carrying over to his 5v5 play. How much is anyone's guess.

 

I do expect Lafreniere to be able to make his linemates better. I also expect immovable pieces to show the same quality. I don't think it's obvious Schneider will eventually bring stuff to the table that makes him untouchable. He's a nice young player, but he has struggled on the 3rd pair across two years. He's only 22 and there's room to grow, but he's also one year away from being off his ELC. If he was part of a package to get a better young impact player, I'm probably not saying no, and I've said the same about Lafreniere.

 

I think I'm using a level playing field. Making sure I'm comparing players at 5v5 if there is a disparity in special teams opportunity, and not paying attention to draft position from 3 years ago. I'd say you might not be using a level playing field because you are adjusting their worth to the team based on draft status.

[RangersIn7]

2 hours ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

I haven't talked about him needing better linemates. I think I'm the only one here who wants him to stay with Chytil and Kakko, to keep the "kid line" chemistry intact. The irony is some of the ones (not necessarily you) who want to trade him for nothing are the ones throwing him on a line with Zibanejad.

 

I've mentioned PP time in the context that I don't look at total point production as the gauge for performance. I look at 5v5 stats. I posted some time ago that he and Kakko both underperformed their 5v5 TOI allotment and need to be better. So not an excuse, just setting the stats table fairly. Yes, I do think if he had massive chunks of PP time for 3 years, it probably would have had an impact on his development and it carrying over to his 5v5 play. How much is anyone's guess.

 

I do expect Lafreniere to be able to make his linemates better. I also expect immovable pieces to show the same quality. I don't think it's obvious Schneider will eventually bring stuff to the table that makes him untouchable. He's a nice young player, but he has struggled on the 3rd pair across two years. He's only 22 and there's room to grow, but he's also one year away from being off his ELC. If he was part of a package to get a better young impact player, I'm probably not saying no, and I've said the same about Lafreniere.

 

I think I'm using a level playing field. Making sure I'm comparing players at 5v5 if there is a disparity in special teams opportunity, and not paying attention to draft position from 3 years ago. I'd say you might not be using a level playing field because you are adjusting their worth to the team based on draft status.

Yup.

If we are talking about Donut…

 

A lot of it is unknown and subjective.

 

His 5v5 production is pretty good considering his minutes. The deployment advantages/disadvantages are a wash, IMO. 
 

Bottom line is he needs to work harder and be in his best shape.

 

We will see what his character is this year.

 

On Schneider…

 

Honestly I have no complaints.

Actually I think GG could have trusted and played him some more.

Obviously his options have been limited some by Fox and Trouba and his youth and relative inexperience. But he totally strikes me as a guy who would respond well to being asked for me. 
 

They have a keeper in him, however and whatever he evolves moving forward.

[Pete]

1 hour ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

I haven't talked about him needing better linemates. I think I'm the only one here who wants him to stay with Chytil and Kakko, to keep the "kid line" chemistry intact. The irony is some of the ones (not necessarily you) who want to trade him for nothing are the ones throwing him on a line with Zibanejad.

Yes, because you have to increase his value, which right now is nothing, and see what he really is by giving him ice time with the team's best center who plays against the other team's best defenses...And that ain't Chytil.

 

Quote

I've mentioned PP time in the context that I don't look at total point production as the gauge for performance. I look at 5v5 stats. I posted some time ago that he and Kakko both underperformed their 5v5 TOI allotment and need to be better. So not an excuse, just setting the stats table fairly. Yes, I do think if he had massive chunks of PP time for 3 years, it probably would have had an impact on his development and it carrying over to his 5v5 play. How much is anyone's guess.

 

I do expect Lafreniere to be able to make his linemates better. I also expect immovable pieces to show the same quality. I don't think it's obvious Schneider will eventually bring stuff to the table that makes him untouchable. He's a nice young player, but he has struggled on the 3rd pair across two years. He's only 22 and there's room to grow, but he's also one year away from being off his ELC. If he was part of a package to get a better young impact player, I'm probably not saying no, and I've said the same about Lafreniere.

 

I think I'm using a level playing field. Making sure I'm comparing players at 5v5 if there is a disparity in special teams opportunity, and not paying attention to draft position from 3 years ago. I'd say you might not be using a level playing field because you are adjusting their worth to the team based on draft status.

Worth no, value yes. Like if you're still trying to get people to forget that Lafreniere was a No.1 overall pick as he winds up a 3rd line grinder...There's very little value in that pick and the organization suffers from it.

[RangersIn7]

17 minutes ago, Pete said:

Yes, because you have to increase his value, which right now is nothing, and see what he really is by giving him ice time with the team's best center who plays against the other team's best defenses...And that ain't Chytil.

 

Worth no, value yes. Like if you're still trying to get people to forget that Lafreniere was a No.1 overall pick as he winds up a 3rd line grinder...There's very little value in that pick and the organization suffers from it.

Yes.

Whatever he is or is going to be, be it here or elsewhere, his value is hurt by the lack of ice time.

If you want to get the most out of him, be it here in actual production, or via trade, you have to max out his playing time. Or at least, give him more with your best players and in the best situations.

 

I think they could get a decent deal for him now. But that’s a shit return on a guy you drafted 1OVA less than 3 years ago.

[The Dude]

8 hours ago, RangersIn7 said:

Schneider’s played all of 150 total NHL games at this point, and 175 total games as a pro. And he’s done that on a team that had no system, anywhere on the ice.

Kinda hard to learn how to play at the NHL level and play your best when you’re not really playing under any parameters other than “try to score without letting your opponent do so”, which was pretty much the full breadth of GG’s tactics and strategy. 
 

If his metrics aren’t good thus far, which they aren’t, I think it’s fair to say its mostly due to his limited experience and the overall lack of defensive structure. 
 

Schneider is a hockey player. 
Im not at all concerned with where he’s at. He’s been exclusively on the bottom pair and he’s not likely to move up higher. 
He’s only had 20+ minutes of ice-time in 8 games in his career thus far.

 

Hes totally fine and I’m interested to see how Lavy’s system impacts him.

Are you saying, you don't think Schneider will ever move up higher? 

[RangersIn7]

11 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Are you saying, you don't think Schneider will ever move up higher? 

No.

Not at all saying that.

Should have clarified.  
 

I mean specifically in the immediate future, where he’s got one of the league’s very best D making $9.5 million per in Fox, and their Captain making $8 million per in Trouba, parked right in front of him on the depths chart at RHD.

 

Unless they go away from their total marriage to never playing any D on their off side, or some other reason like he gets significantly better or one of the other 2 just gets really bad, he’s unlikely to see top-4 minutes in the next season or two.

 

And when I say “significantly better” it’s not say that I think he’s bad, which I don’t. Nor do I think he’s done developing. Nor do I think we’ve seen his absolute best hockey.

 

He’s only 21-22 and he’s played 150 NHL games with not so great coaching. 
 

He’s performed very well in the role he’s been asked to thus far. I’m very pleased and very comfortable with him where he’s at, and with what he’s done.

And I think he can and will absolutely improve.

 

Hes not ever going to be an offensive dynamo or a total shutdown, opponents don’t score when he’s on the ice kind of guy, and certainly not the rare defenseman  who can do both.

 

I think his skill set, style, and ceiling are that of a stay at home guy with a bit of offense, but he could be a very solid, stable, top-4 NHL D, in a stay at home, kind of role, that can move the puck just a little.

 

That’s possible 

 

 

 

[The Dude]

7 hours ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

I haven't talked about him needing better linemates. I think I'm the only one here who wants him to stay with Chytil and Kakko, to keep the "kid line" chemistry intact. The irony is some of the ones (not necessarily you) who want to trade him for nothing are the ones throwing him on a line with Zibanejad.

 

I've mentioned PP time in the context that I don't look at total point production as the gauge for performance. I look at 5v5 stats. I posted some time ago that he and Kakko both underperformed their 5v5 TOI allotment and need to be better. So not an excuse, just setting the stats table fairly. Yes, I do think if he had massive chunks of PP time for 3 years, it probably would have had an impact on his development and it carrying over to his 5v5 play. How much is anyone's guess.

 

I do expect Lafreniere to be able to make his linemates better. I also expect immovable pieces to show the same quality. I don't think it's obvious Schneider will eventually bring stuff to the table that makes him untouchable. He's a nice young player, but he has struggled on the 3rd pair across two years. He's only 22 and there's room to grow, but he's also one year away from being off his ELC. If he was part of a package to get a better young impact player, I'm probably not saying no, and I've said the same about Lafreniere.

 

I think I'm using a level playing field. Making sure I'm comparing players at 5v5 if there is a disparity in special teams opportunity, and not paying attention to draft position from 3 years ago. I'd say you might not be using a level playing field because you are adjusting their worth to the team based on draft status.

I guess I'm confusing you with other Lafrenière apologists. Most will point to the "other 1OAs typically are pushed to be on the top line and be the guy, while the team deals with any struggles, because they have no choice ."  I'm pretty sure similar takes have been brought to the table by you. If not, hey. I apologize. 

 

You can look at 5v5 stats till your blue in the face. The fact that the kid is not outstanding at anything, the lack of game breaking ability at all over 3 years and the obvious conditioning issue, negates any privilege of PP time. 

 

Look. The 1OA stigma, will always be be talked about. That's just how it is. Every one of them get held to a different standard.  It tilts the field. It has to. It's a huge disaster that this kid still isn't a player that puts anyone on the edge of their seat.  

 

On Schneider. Isn't it typical for Dmen to take longer to develop? He's played 2 seasons behind Fox and Trouba. He hasn't been bad (metrics smetrics). Do you NOT see his physical presence as an automatic plus for his development? His skating? His ability to join on the rush? His ability to carry the puck?

 

As a 3rd pair guy he put up 18 points with the awful partners he had most of the season.   Miller put up 20 in his 2nd season as a 2nd pairing guy and it was deemed a great year.  People were gushing.  He's still a mess defensively and is soft AF. That's why people think coaching is going to help him become next level. I don't get why you'd think Schneider isn't going to make huge advancements. It's all there. It just needs to be coached. I think Laviolette is going to love this kid more than any of the kids. 

 

I get that you're saying you like Schneider.  But you're kinda coming off like you don't, by expecting him to be a game breaker in order for him to be deemed untouchable.  Was Lindgren a game breaker? Are his stats anything to rave about? Shit, people wrote him iff a year after they got him, because he wasn't flashy enough like Lundkvist. Deemed not a top prospect and likely not an impactful player.

 

It's not always about the stats.  It's about the game the guy brings. In this case, Schneider ceiling is huuuge, and it seems like you don't see it. 

 

 

[RangersIn7]

2 hours ago, The Dude said:

I guess I'm confusing you with other Lafrenière apologists. Most will point to the "other 1OAs typically are pushed to be on the top line and be the guy, while the team deals with any struggles, because they have no choice ."  I'm pretty sure similar takes have been brought to the table by you. If not, hey. I apologize. 

 

You can look at 5v5 stats till your blue in the face. The fact that the kid is not outstanding at anything, the lack of game breaking ability at all over 3 years and the obvious conditioning issue, negates any privilege of PP time. 

 

Look. The 1OA stigma, will always be be talked about. That's just how it is. Every one of them get held to a different standard.  It tilts the field. It has to. It's a huge disaster that this kid still isn't a player that puts anyone on the edge of their seat.  

 

On Schneider. Isn't it typical for Dmen to take longer to develop? He's played 2 seasons behind Fox and Trouba. He hasn't been bad (metrics smetrics). Do you NOT see his physical presence as an automatic plus for his development? His skating? His ability to join on the rush? His ability to carry the puck?

 

As a 3rd pair guy he put up 18 points with the awful partners he had most of the season.   Miller put up 20 in his 2nd season as a 2nd pairing guy and it was deemed a great year.  People were gushing.  He's still a mess defensively and is soft AF. That's why people think coaching is going to help him become next level. I don't get why you'd think Schneider isn't going to make huge advancements. It's all there. It just needs to be coached. I think Laviolette is going to love this kid more than any of the kids. 

 

I get that you're saying you like Schneider.  But you're kinda coming off like you don't, by expecting him to be a game breaker in order for him to be deemed untouchable.  Was Lindgren a game breaker? Are his stats anything to rave about? Shit, people wrote him iff a year after they got him, because he wasn't flashy enough like Lundkvist. Deemed not a top prospect and likely not an impactful player.

 

It's not always about the stats.  It's about the game the guy brings. In this case, Schneider ceiling is huuuge, and it seems like you don't see it. 

 

 

You see that kind of ceiling with Schneider?

Not being contentious. I’m just not sure as to what makes you think that way. I really like him too.
 

I’ll say that he does skate pretty well and has some ability to move the puck, but he’s never been much of an offensive guy at any level.

 

IDK.

 

I can see him rounding into a quality top-4 guy who is very good in his own end and gives you a bit of offense here and there. Not sure the ceiling is higher than that. And that’s actually more than fine. That would be great in fact. 
If he were to go higher than that, I think it would be more along the defensive side of things, and if all the planets aligned, he’s an elite shutdown guy. 
 

As said earlier, I think GG could’ve used him more and asked more out of him. Especially early last season, when Trouba was lousy and clearly playing through an injury that he likely should not have been. 

[The Dude]

5 hours ago, RangersIn7 said:

You see that kind of ceiling with Schneider?

Not being contentious. I’m just not sure as to what makes you think that way. I really like him too.
 

I’ll say that he does skate pretty well and has some ability to move the puck, but he’s never been much of an offensive guy at any level.

 

IDK.

 

I can see him rounding into a quality top-4 guy who is very good in his own end and gives you a bit of offense here and there. Not sure the ceiling is higher than that. And that’s actually more than fine. That would be great in fact. 
If he were to go higher than that, I think it would be more along the defensive side of things, and if all the planets aligned, he’s an elite shutdown guy. 
 

As said earlier, I think GG could’ve used him more and asked more out of him. Especially early last season, when Trouba was lousy and clearly playing through an injury that he likely should not have been. 

That's about where I have him too. A hefty top 4. Definitely taking Troubas spot. 35- 40 point potential, but a physical force. I guess that's not huge, but it's somewhere along the lines of untouchable due to the lack of anything else coming through the pipe, which makes him more valuable. 

 

 

[RangersIn7]

6 hours ago, The Dude said:

That's about where I have him too. A hefty top 4. Definitely taking Troubas spot. 35- 40 point potential, but a physical force. I guess that's not huge, but it's somewhere along the lines of untouchable due to the lack of anything else coming through the pipe, which makes him more valuable. 

 

 

No dude, that’s an important piece with real value. I’d be thrilled if he developed into that over the next however long

[Jdog99]

Obviously can't really fault the Rangers for going with the #1 consensus pick at the time - theyd've been 'laffed' out the building had they picked stutzle #1.

 

But it is worth exploring what they could've got in a trade down, and whether teams should be more open to trading out of the top pick in general.

Edited July 28, 2023 by Jdog99

[RangersIn7]

On 7/27/2023 at 11:24 AM, Jdog99 said:

Obviously can't really fault the Rangers for going with the #1 consensus pick at the time - theyd've been 'laffed' out the building had they picked stutzle #1.

 

But it is worth exploring what they could've got in a trade down, and whether teams should be more open to trading out of the top pick in general.

I knew the numbers on this specifically at one point, but I think it’s something like 7 total trades of top-5 picks in the last 25ish years. And I don’t think there’s been one since the 2003-2004 lockout.

But don’t quote me. Cause I no longer remember and I didn’t look prior to making this post. 
 

Teams just don’t trade that type of asset, even in a not so great draft class, because they’re typically lousy and in a rebuild when they’re in possession of that asset and would rather just make the pick.

 

But I do agree that in that case, they could’ve gotten a kings ransom for that pick, and absolutely stayed in the top-5 had they done so. Perhaps top 2 or 3. 
 

I don’t blame them for keeping the puck and selecting LaFreniere. And despite the very negative opinion on him, the book on him  is in no way finished. 
 

Time and patience brothers!

Edited August 2, 2023 by RangersIn7

[Phil]

Hard sell when you're being asked to give more time and patience to someone who's shown next to nothing.

[RangersIn7]

50 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hard sell when you're being asked to give more time and patience to someone who's shown next to nothing.

Phil, I totally understand your feeling there and see your point. Heck… I agree with it in part. I think saying he’s “shown next to nothing” is both unfair and inaccurate, but it’s not a totally ridiculous statement.

 

I don’t see it as a hard ask either, given that when you drafted him, unless something ridiculously unforeseen occurred, which it hasn’t, you were planning on having him here for 5 seasons anyway. Especially when no one can really bring up or propose a better option. 
 

A few points though…

1) Purely based on everything we’ve previously brought up in terms of development, deployment, utilization, coaching, etc., his production, while underwhelming in relation to his draft position, is actually pretty decent. 

 

2) The eye test factor, while I see and agree with some of it, is very subjective overall and based on individual interpretation and opinion, and therefore subject to bias, and therefore shouldn’t be taken as gospel or anything like that. And can be improved upon because he’s 21 and whatever his best might actually be, I don’t think we’ve seen it yet.

 

3) What real choice do they have that’s better than driving on for another period of time?

What he’s shown hasn’t wowed anyone, in eye test or production, independent of any factors. And they let out that comment about his dedication to offseason program, whatever that meant in specific actuality. And then Drury publicly said they’re committed to him… so how do you trade him and what do you get, that makes you better now with a contending team.

 

The only real course is seeing what happens with him here.

 

None of us know for certain. Though people are acting like they do. And heck, maybe ultimately they’ll be right. But maybe not. The eventuality is probably in the middle. But we don’t know and shouldn’t act as though we do. 
 

Yes. He’s underachieved thus far and hasn’t been wowing. But again, the book isn’t written and the jury is still out. 
 

We will just have to see. 
 

Draft a guy 1OVA, and you should be prepared to pay with time and patience. And only deviate if there’s an absolute disaster. And that hasn’t happened.

Edited August 2, 2023 by RangersIn7