Re-drafting the 2020 NHL Draft: Tim Stützle and Jake Sanderson Lead Do-over

[Phil]

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1. New York Rangers: C Tim Stützle

Actual draft pick: No. 3 (change: +2) to Ottawa
My final ranking: No. 7 (change: +7)

 

“Stützle is the quickest player in the draft through his acceleration, and maybe at his top speed too … He’s also deceptively strong on his stick and skates … I think there’s an argument for him as high as No. 3 in this draft … His transition game remains the most dynamic in the class, and the allure of that is understandable so I won’t be too fussed about the actual picks on draft day if my top eight or nine prospects are taken in the top 10.”

 

Those are all excerpts on Stützle from my draft board. That isn’t meant to soften the blow in terms of where I had him. I had him too low. No ifs, ands or buts there. But while I was slightly partial to Marco Rossi and Cole Perfetti there at the time, I understood why Stützle emerged as the consensus No. 3 pick (and even maybe the consensus No. 2), and I actually think my analysis in terms of his game was spot on. Where I went wrong was twofold:

 

1. I put too much stock in his so-so second half (which began with an illness at the world juniors that I think impacted him more than I considered).

 

2. I got carried away with how much Rossi and Perfetti had impressed me on but especially off the ice that year. Those two kids didn’t just impress me relative to their draft classes, they remain the two most impressive kids I think I’ve ever gotten to know in that process. I gave that too much credence. Combine that with the highly intelligent styles they play, a style I’m drawn to, and there was a recipe for me being a little too high on both (though I think in Rossi’s case, the severity of his myocarditis diagnosis and the lost year of skating and training that followed it have also certainly played a major role in his progress since the draft).

 

Today? Stützle’s the best player in the draft and the favourite to stay it.

 

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5. Ottawa Senators: LW Alexis Lafrenière

Actual draft pick: No. 1 (change: -4) to the Rangers
My final ranking: No. 1 (change: -4)

 

Given what he accomplished in junior, both domestically and internationally, Lafrenière’s career to this point has not lived up to expectations. I think when that happens, though, we too often get into black-and-white discussions about busts, instead of re-centring the conversation around the grey area of what he now is and what he still might become. There are a lot of on- and off-ice reasons for the way things have played out for Lafrenière. Some of them — a lack of pace, for example — are about the player. Some of them — entering into an organization notably deep at left wing and very much not in a traditional rebuild conducive to opportunity — are contextual. I still expect him to become more than the 15-to-20-goal, 30-to-40-point guy he has been early in his career, though. He doesn’t profile like a star anymore. That doesn’t mean he can’t be an important player on a good team.

 

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19. New York Rangers: LHD Kaiden Guhle

Actual draft pick: No. 17 (change: -2) to Montreal
My final ranking: No. 31 (change: +12)

 

All things considered, and despite mixed on-ice results on a bad team, I thought Guhle handled himself well in his rookie season in the NHL last year. His skating, strength and overall athleticism have always been his calling cards and remain his biggest strengths. Now it’s just about refining the rest of his game, getting reps and continuing to establish himself as an anchor of the Canadiens’ blue line of the future.

 

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20. New Jersey Devils: RHD Braden Schneider

Actual draft pick: No. 19 (change: -1) to the Rangers
My final ranking: No. 38 (change: +18)

 

Schneider always had the physical tools to project into the role he has played these last two seasons: 15-16 minutes a night of sound defensively-oriented hockey in third-pairing usage. His larger-than-most NHL sample to date, which has included a regular role in two playoff runs, earns him this spot in a do-over on that basis. The question was always if he had enough offence to his game to be more than a solid partner for someone else and play higher in the lineup. That still feels like it’s TBD (his play with the puck isn’t prohibitive but it remains fairly simple/straightforward).

 

https://theathletic.com/4673870/2023/07/25/2020-nhl-draft-stutzle-sanderson/

[BrooksBurner]

No question Stutzle deserves that #1 spot. PP aside, his 5v5 output is better.

 

Ballsy redraft prediction: Lafreniere will reclaim it in a redraft 3 years from now.

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

Anyone wanna post the top 10/20? I don't subscribe to Athletic.

 

Without looking I would assume 3-5 are Raymond, Lundell and Drysdale? I would take Jarvis and Mercer over Laf without thinking twice too. Maybe even Jack Quinn and Byfield.

 

I do think Schneider is a bit low. Has he really fallen since draft day?

12 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

Ballsy redraft prediction: Lafreniere will reclaim it in a redraft 3 years from now.

Ballsy prediction: He's outside of the top 10 in 5 years.

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

No question Stutzle deserves that #1 spot. PP aside, his 5v5 output is better.

 

Ballsy redraft prediction: Lafreniere will reclaim it in a redraft 3 years from now.

 

[BrooksBurner]

2 minutes ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

Anyone wanna post the top 10/20? I don't subscribe to Athletic.

 

Without looking I would assume 3-5 are Raymond, Lundell and Drysdale? I would take Jarvis and Mercer over Laf without thinking twice too. Maybe even Jack Quinn and Byfield.

 

I do think Schneider is a bit low. Has he really fallen since draft day?

Ballsy prediction: He's outside of the top 10 in 5 years.

Schneider’s metrics are terrible. He’s young and can improve, but he’s been treated as a piece the team needs to clutch onto only because of the occasional big body check.

 

[BrooksBurner]

Just now, Phil said:

 

No that’s why I said ballsy 

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

Anyone wanna post the top 10/20? I don't subscribe to Athletic.

 

Without looking I would assume 3-5 are Raymond, Lundell and Drysdale? I would take Jarvis and Mercer over Laf without thinking twice too. Maybe even Jack Quinn and Byfield.

 

I do think Schneider is a bit low. Has he really fallen since draft day?

Ballsy prediction: He's outside of the top 10 in 5 years.

 

1. Stutzle

2. Sanderson

3. Raymond

4. Perfetti

5. Laugh

6. Byfield

7. Mercer

8. Jarvis

9. Lundell

10. Quinn

11. Drysdale

12. Askarov

13. Levi

14. Reichel

15. Peterka

16. Rossi

17. Holtz

18. Nikishkin

19. Guhle

20. Schneider

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

Just now, BrooksBurner said:

Schneider’s metrics are terrible. He’s young and can improve, but he’s been treated as a piece the team needs to clutch onto only because of the occasional big body check.

 

Still, having at 20 feels a bit too low. This draft sucked, there's barely 20 players from this draft that plays regularly in the NHL.

 

I haven't seen the list, but I'm curious to see who's 14-19.

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

 

1. Stutzle

2. Sanderson

3. Raymond

4. Perfetti

5. Laugh

6. Byfield

7. Mercer

8. Jarvis

9. Lundell

10. Quinn

11. Drysdale

12. Askarov

13. Levi

14. Reichel

15. Peterka

16. Rossi

17. Holtz

18. Nikishkin

19. Guhle

20. Schneider

Ok I was way off lol.

 

Perfetti so high? I must admit I've barely watched him play, but the guy has 10 NHL goals?

 

I'd take Lundell, Jarvis and Mercer over Laugh lol.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

Ok I was way off lol.

 

Perfetti so high? I must admit I've barely watched him play, but the guy has 10 NHL goals?

 

I'd take Lundell, Jarvis and Mercer over Laugh lol.

 

Same. Laugh is way high in this list still IMO. I'd probably go:

 

1. Stutzle

2. Sanderson

3. Raymond

4. Mercer

5. Jarvis

6. Lundell

7. Perfetti

8. Laugh?

9. Byfield?

10. Quinn

[Sharpshooter]

I know the draft can be a crapshoot, and Laf was the consensus number one, but wow. Stutzle has blown past Lafreniere and Byfield immediately. He looked like a number one pick himself with the way he played in that tournament too.

[RJWantsTheCup]

As of now Stutzle is the clear cut best player from that draft, but it's still early.    I would gladly take his current production from Donut Hole.

[Albatrosss]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

 

Same. Laugh is way high in this list still IMO. I'd probably go:

 

1. Stutzle

2. Sanderson

3. Raymond

4. Mercer

5. Jarvis

6. Lundell

7. Perfetti

8. Laugh?

9. Byfield?

10. Quinn

i'd prolly put Quinn higher than 10.  maybe 3 or 4.  Going to be a monster, from what i saw of his last year

[BrooksBurner]

Lafreniere was a better 5v5 player than Stutzle for the first two seasons. Stutzle had nobody blocking him during those years and was enabled and allowed to nurture his offensive skills on the PP. That nurturing allowed him to explode at 5v5 this year.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, CCCP said:

i'd prolly put Quinn higher than 10.  maybe 3 or 4.  Going to be a monster, from what i saw of his last year

 

Not 3 or 4, but the more I look at this, the more I want to put him at 7.

 

1. Stutzle

2. Sanderson

3. Raymond

4. Mercer

5. Jarvis

6. Lundell

7. Quinn

8. Perfetti

9. Laugh?

10. Byfield?

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

2 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

Lafreniere was a better 5v5 player than Stutzle for the first two seasons. Stutzle had nobody blocking him during those years and was enabled and allowed to nurture his offensive skills on the PP. That nurturing allowed him to explode at 5v5 this year.

That, and he’s just a better player than Laugh. A lot better.

[Albatrosss]

28 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

Lafreniere was a better 5v5 player than Stutzle for the first two seasons. Stutzle had nobody blocking him during those years and was enabled and allowed to nurture his offensive skills on the PP. That nurturing allowed him to explode at 5v5 this year.

suck my stutzle!

[Albatrosss]

27 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Not 3 or 4, but the more I look at this, the more I want to put him at 7.

 

1. Stutzle

2. Sanderson

3. Raymond

4. Mercer

5. Jarvis

6. Lundell

7. Quinn

8. Perfetti

9. Laugh?

10. Byfield?

look at it some more.  Elite offensive defenseman is way more valuable

[BrooksBurner]

55 minutes ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

That, and he’s just a better player than Laugh. A lot better.

 

Sure, but how confident are you that you could say this if the picks were flipped?

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

Sure, but how confident are you that you could say this if the picks were flipped?

 

Very. Stutzle is a center. Trocheck would never have been signed. Strome would still have walked, and they'd have Panarin-Stutzle together.

[Ozzy]

...and Gallant would've probably played them together one time and junked it!  LOL

[Phil]

Probably, but it'd still be worth it to not have signed Trocheck.

[BrooksBurner]

29 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Very. Stutzle is a center. Trocheck would never have been signed. Strome would still have walked, and they'd have Panarin-Stutzle together.

Stutzle probably wouldn’t have even been on the team year 1.

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

Stutzle probably wouldn’t have even been on the team year 1.

 

Even better. Would have been less of an issue on the development woes scale.

[BrooksBurner]

20 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Even better. Would have been less of an issue on the development woes scale.

 

And then year 2 they would have had to trade Chytil or Strome to make room for a guy who hadn't played an NHL game. Probably Chytil. Best case scenario is Stutzle gets Chytil's 13 min a game, and given Stutzle was not good at 5v5 the first 2 years of his career, he wouldn't have impacted jack shit enough here to prevent a 2C/Trocheck signing. The Rangers would very likely be in the same spot, with Stutzle putting up Lafreniere numbers in Chytil's spot in the lineup.

 

Lafreniere meanwhile would have Stutzle's 700 PP minutes with Ottawa instead of 200 garbo minutes here.

Edited July 25, 2023 by BrooksBurner