Friedman Sens Have 'Begun Examining the Trade Market' for Alex Debrincat; Opt for Arbitration

[Phil]

Quote

There is word Monday afternoon that the Ottawa Senators have begun examining the trade market for winger Alex DeBrincat.

 

One source referred to it as “Ottawa’s due diligence,” as, according to multiple sources, DeBrincat recently indicated he wished to wait until the completion of the Senators’ ownership saga before thinking of committing to a long-term extension. Even if the Senators pick a new owner in the near future, there’s still the sale-closing process — which will take time.

 

DeBrincat needs a new contract for 2023-24. He is one year away from unrestricted free agency.

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/senators-exploring-all-options-with-winger-alex-debrincat/

[Cash or Czech]

Would much rather have Cat than Keller, that's for sure.

[Phil]

Not sure the Rangers have the stomach to pay what this likely costs in a trade. Just spitballing, but if I'm the Sens, I want Miller, Laugh, 1st, and change.

[BrooksBurner]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Not sure the Rangers have the stomach to pay what this likely costs in a trade. Just spitballing, but if I'm the Sens, I want Miller, Laugh, 1st, and change.

 

Not a chance. Ottawa gave up 7OA in a weak draft and a future 3rd rounder for Debrincat. That's a Derek Stepan return. Debrincat also had a cheaper year left on his deal and his stock has only fallen after the subpar season he just put up in his first year away from Kane.

 

I don't use +/- in a vacuum, but it can be pretty telling when there is a large enough disparity with own teammates. Ottawa was -22 at ES this year. Debrincat was -31. It's not overly surprising they are shopping him, and it's for good reason.

[Pete]

40 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

Not a chance. Ottawa gave up 7OA in a weak draft and a future 3rd rounder for Debrincat. That's a Derek Stepan return. Debrincat also had a cheaper year left on his deal and his stock has only fallen after the subpar season he just put up in his first year away from Kane.

 

I don't use +/- in a vacuum, but it can be pretty telling when there is a large enough disparity with own teammates. Ottawa was -22 at ES this year. Debrincat was -31. It's not overly surprising they are shopping him, and it's for good reason.

That's silly. He had a "bad" year and still scored 27 goals. They're doing their due diligence, trade exploration just one path. He doesn't want to sign until they have an owner. It's not because he's bad defensively.

 

No one is going to turn their nose up at a 30-goal lock / 40+ goal upside because of bad defense.

[BrooksBurner]

53 minutes ago, Pete said:

That's silly. He had a "bad" year and still scored 27 goals. They're doing their due diligence, trade exploration just one path. He doesn't want to sign until they have an owner. It's not because he's bad defensively.

 

No one is going to turn their nose up at a 30-goal lock / 40+ goal upside because of bad defense.

None of this is really related to anything I said.

[Pete]

6 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

None of this is really related to anything I said.

[RichieNextel305]

Why the hell did I think he was a center?

[RJWantsTheCup]

His qualify offer is 9M?  That's craziness.

[Pete]

5 minutes ago, RJWantsTheCup said:

His qualify offer is 9M?  That's craziness.

He's in the same position Meier is, IIRC.

 

But like I said earlier, goals are at a premium. This guy can get you back into the game with a couple of shots, he's got that Phil Kessel instant offense. 

[RJWantsTheCup]

I didn't look up his stats, but if my memory serves me correctly doesn't he score most of his points on the power play?  Would solve part of the RW problem, but not the 5X5 problem.  Plus he is known to be bad defensively.

[Pete]

4 minutes ago, RJWantsTheCup said:

I didn't look up his stats, but if my memory serves me correctly doesn't he score most of his points on the power play?  Would solve part of the RW problem, but not the 5X5 problem.  Plus he is known to be bad defensively.

371 career points. 129 PPP and 241 ESP.

 

And frankly, I don't really care about the defense when you're getting 40 goals. I think people need to shake this idea that every player needs to be good at every single facet of the game. If you have an excellent point producer and they're not the greatest defensively, or they're "soft", or whatever... that doesn't mean you chuck them. It's throwing the baby out with the bath water. We need to move away from the idea that every player needs to hit, and be a Selke and Byng candidate, and score goals, and go to the front of the net and battle, and never miss the net (ever) etc. There's only a handful of these players in the league. 

 

It's like when people complain about Zib missing the net on his one timer... The guy is also scoring 30 to 40 goals a season. He's missing the net because he's picking a corner. He's not missing the net because he's chucking a bad shot like Tro. 

[RJWantsTheCup]

37 minutes ago, Pete said:

371 career points. 129 PPP and 241 ESP.

 

And frankly, I don't really care about the defense when you're getting 40 goals. I think people need to shake this idea that every player needs to be good at every single facet of the game. If you have an excellent point producer and they're not the greatest defensively, or they're "soft", or whatever... that doesn't mean you chuck them. It's throwing the baby out with the bath water. We need to move away from the idea that every player needs to hit, and be a Selke and Byng candidate, and score goals, and go to the front of the net and battle, and never miss the net (ever) etc. There's only a handful of these players in the league. 

 

It's like when people complain about Zib missing the net on his one timer... The guy is also scoring 30 to 40 goals a season. He's missing the net because he's picking a corner. He's not missing the net because he's chucking a bad shot like Tro. 

Thanks for the info.  Depending on the asking price and if they can fit him into the cap situation he's definitely worth looking into.

[BrooksBurner]

1 hour ago, RJWantsTheCup said:

I didn't look up his stats, but if my memory serves me correctly doesn't he score most of his points on the power play?  Would solve part of the RW problem, but not the 5X5 problem.  Plus he is known to be bad defensively.

 

He scored plenty at ES with Kane in Chicago, but that was with Kane.

 

Last year, Kakko had more goals and points at ES than Debrincat. Lafreniere had 1 less ES point. This is the precarious position Ottawa is in on qualifying or extending Debrincat at a high $ amount. He was awful away from Kane and there’s no sugar coating it. Is that what he will be moving forward? Who knows, but it’s a major gamble for anyone to give him a big money deal, and on top of that pay a healthy trade price to get him.

[Pete]

53 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

He scored plenty at ES with Kane in Chicago, but that was with Kane.

 

Last year, Kakko had more goals and points at ES than Debrincat. Lafreniere had 1 less ES point. This is the precarious position Ottawa is in on qualifying or extending Debrincat at a high $ amount. He was awful away from Kane and there’s no sugar coating it. Is that what he will be moving forward? Who knows, but it’s a major gamble for anyone to give him a big money deal, and on top of that pay a healthy trade price to get him.

27 goals on a bad team is awful?

 

The perspective is completely out of whack. 

[Long live the King]

1 hour ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

He scored plenty at ES with Kane in Chicago, but that was with Kane.

 

Last year, Kakko had more goals and points at ES than Debrincat. Lafreniere had 1 less ES point. This is the precarious position Ottawa is in on qualifying or extending Debrincat at a high $ amount. He was awful away from Kane and there’s no sugar coating it. Is that what he will be moving forward? Who knows, but it’s a major gamble for anyone to give him a big money deal, and on top of that pay a healthy trade price to get him.

 

Cool, so he worked better with Kane than with Shane Pinto and Drake Batherson.  If he came here he'd play with either Zib or Panarin which is probably great if he scores 40 goals with good linemates.

[BrooksBurner]

20 minutes ago, Pete said:

27 goals on a bad team is awful?

 

The perspective is completely out of whack. 

 

This isn't Chel. A player who is a -31 on a decently competitive team is a liability and a big problem.

[Long live the King]

Just now, BrooksBurner said:

 

This isn't Chel. A player who is a -31 on a decently competitive team is a liability and a big problem.

 

You keep saying -31 like every goal was his fault.  What was Batherson doing with his -35, or Pinto with his -21?  Maybe the coach shouldn't have left that line together.

[BrooksBurner]

1 minute ago, Long live the King said:

 

Cool, so he worked better with Kane than with Shane Pinto and Drake Batherson.  If he came here he'd play with either Zib or Panarin which is probably great if he scores 40 goals with good linemates.

 

You can't guarantee that. Panarin and Zibanejad apparently don't work well together, so why is it a guarantee that Debrincat works with either of them? What does it matter anyway? There's no cap to do it.

[Long live the King]

 

Looks like the minus follows Pinto around.

[BrooksBurner]

2 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

 

You keep saying -31 like every goal was his fault.  What was Batherson doing with his -35, or Pinto with his -21?  Maybe the coach shouldn't have left that line together.

 

Where did I say it was all Debrincat's fault? I said there were question marks for whoever invests in him. You'd like to think a player in line for $9m can be a more positive difference though, no matter the linemates. Regular season Panarin turned Strome into a big + and a good hockey player.

[Long live the King]

5 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

You can't guarantee that. Panarin and Zibanejad apparently don't work well together, so why is it a guarantee that Debrincat works with either of them? What does it matter anyway? There's no cap to do it.

 

 

Looks like Panarin-Zib with Tarasenko, off-wing Kreider, and Goodrow were all good.  Only partner that really didn't work with them was Kakko.  But Gallant was a wiz at sticking with lines and getting good matchups.

[BrooksBurner]

9 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

 

 

Looks like Panarin-Zib with Tarasenko, off-wing Kreider, and Goodrow were all good.  Only partner that really didn't work with them was Kakko.  But Gallant was a wiz at sticking with lines and getting good matchups.

 

Different players. We never know who will look good with who. Obviously Debrincat wasn't good with Batherson and Pinto.

 

I'll backtrack on "Kane exclusively carried Debrincat" though. Cat did not hardly play at all with Kane his first two years (most time was with Toews/Sharp/D Strome/Kahun), and he was quite good.

[Pete]

27 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

You can't guarantee that. Panarin and Zibanejad apparently don't work well together, so why is it a guarantee that Debrincat works with either of them? What does it matter anyway? There's no cap to do it.

This is true, but you're shining a light on his +/- like it's an end-all-be-all and ignoring he generally pots 30G and this was by far his worst year, and I wouldn't call the Sens "competitive". They were 21st in the league in points, used 7 goalies, and Cat had better underlying statistics for play driving and expected +/-, combined with a 96 PDO suggests his actual +/- is not indicative of his play and more of an anomaly due to bad goal tending. (as a team they had an .895 SV%).

 

He's pretty far from a risk, and if Caufield just got 8M, I see no problem giving Cat $9M.

Edited June 6, 2023 by Pete

[BrooksBurner]

30 minutes ago, Pete said:

This is true, but you're shining a light on his +/- like it's an end-all-be-all and ignoring he generally pots 30G and this was by far his worst year, and I wouldn't call the Sens "competitive". They were 21st in the league in points, used 7 goalies, and Cat had better underlying statistics for play driving and expected +/-, combined with a 96 PDO suggests his actual +/- is not indicative of his play and more of an anomaly due to bad goal tending. (as a team they had an .895 SV%).

 

He's pretty far from a risk, and if Caufield just got 8M, I see no problem giving Cat $9M.

 

I mentioned +/- but I didn't insinuate that's all that matters. It's tough to evaluate the team stats sorted by +/- and not see the 2-3 guys who stick out like a sore thumb: https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/OTT/2023.html . I wouldn't even be talking about it if Brady Tkachuk was a -30 instead of a -10, or Giroux, Stutzle etc were -20. They had the same goaltending.

 

I just think for $9M you need more of a line driver. A guy who makes his linemates better. I'm not saying Cat can't be that guy. He's only 25. I just said there's question marks and doubt that really shouldn't accompany that price tag. Agree on underlying stats btw. They weren't great or anything, but he probably deserved a little better. Kind of like what I've been saying about the Panarin/Trocheck pairing.