Danger Zone: Is Buchnevich a First Line Player?

[Gravesy]

I’m torn on Buchnevich. Process wise, it feels like the exact sweet spot to trade him now.

But I’m really impressed with what he did this season, particularly in terms of expanding his game and becoming much more of a 200 ft player and even killing penalties.

I’d feel a lot better about it if Kakko had shown any signs of being able to produce at a top 6 NHL level.

[josh]

I’m torn on Buchnevich. Process wise, it feels like the exact sweet spot to trade him now.

But I’m really impressed with what he did this season, particularly in terms of expanding his game and becoming much more of a 200 ft player and even killing penalties.

I’d feel a lot better about it if Kakko had shown any signs of being able to produce at a top 6 NHL level.

 

I think when we say “I wish player X did better”, you’re saying No Buchnevich isn’t a bonafide top liner... he just happens to be the Rangers best RW right now.

[josh]

No. But he is a “2nd line” player on teams that compete for cups.

 

The concept is weird to me.. the best player on the teams isn’t oven on the “1st line”. I think Buch should be paid like a 4-6 guy.

 

 

Did you read the OP?

 

It’s not necessarily based on the line they play on.

Malkin is a 1C regardless of where he slots in the pens lineup. Same with Panarin.

 

Blackwell playing a game on the first line isn’t a “first liner”. That’s just his spot in the lineup.

[NYR2711]

This is hard to answer simply because this is the first year where he has played like this. If what we saw this year is the Buch we will continue to have, then I would say yes. I like Buch, but he has been way to streaky in his other seasons and disappeared for long stretches in the past. I think we need to see more from him to make sure this year wasn't a Boyle type season.

[BrooksBurner]

Can Buch himself be capable of carrying a team for stretches, winning you games, stop a losing streak by himself, or lead a team? A bonafide first line player is capable of those things.

 

That description is more how I would define a franchise or star player. Buchnevich is more of a complimentary first line player. He's not going to get paid like a star, because he isn't one, but he's good value at 5.5-6M.

[BrooksBurner]

That's a fair assessment - I'm not necessarily in disagreement here. I just don't think Kakko and Kravtsov make a ton on their next deals barring incredible breakout seasons - and even then it's in the air. Reasonably, what are they getting if they put up, say, a mid 50s and a high 40s point season (let's assume they both end up on the top line) - 3-ish apiece? Maybe 4 for Kakko?

 

By the time they're due the big bucks, Kreider's traded. Panarin's got 2 years. Trouba's probably gone. Fox is in year 3 of an 8 year megadeal. Lafreniere is in year 2 of an 8 year deal. Zib is in year 3 or 4 of his deal. You've made it tenable, or you've at least kicked the can hard enough for the cap to go up again.

 

edit - I'd add that Buch on a tradeable deal is an ideal situation assuming that's something he wants. If I'm Buch, I want the long term deal. I'm not sure the team does, and I'm guessing that's going to be a point of friction. I'd sooner take him at 2y/16m than I would at 5y/32m given our cap circumstances.

 

I think you can get Buch for 2 yrs x 5-5.25M. Slightly more than Strome got. I don't think you need to go long term. I also think he might just want to kick the can a couple of years and hope the cap goes up to get more $ on a long term deal.

[Guest]

He's in his last year as an RFA. Given the potential talent this team has on the wings and the assets (specifically on defense) that they can use to upgrade down the road as needed, I think I push for a 2 year prove it deal where if he does gain consistency at this level, you either pay him then or let him walk (plus potentially get a small haul as a rental if the Rangers aren't in a playoff position at that point).

 

So I'm looking at 1-2 years around $4.5M per. Also known as "The Ryan Strome".

 

My fear is that he becomes LW Chris Kreider if you lock him up long term and he gets pushed down the lineup by Kakko and Kravtsov which is a realistic expectation given the progression of both.

[Guest]

I think you can get Buch for 2 yrs x 5-5.25M. Slightly more than Strome got. I don't think you need to go long term. I also think he might just want to kick the can a couple of years and hope the cap goes up to get more $ on a long term deal.

 

I was typing my response while you posted. I could have saved some time by waiting a couple minutes.

[josh]

He's in his last year as an RFA. Given the potential talent this team has on the wings and the assets (specifically on defense) that they can use to upgrade down the road as needed, I think I push for a 2 year prove it deal where if he does gain consistency at this level, you either pay him then or let him walk (plus potentially get a small haul as a rental if the Rangers aren't in a playoff position at that point).

 

So I'm looking at 1-2 years around $4.5M per. Also known as "The Ryan Strome".

 

My fear is that he becomes LW Chris Kreider if you lock him up long term and he gets pushed down the lineup by Kakko and Kravtsov which is a realistic expectation given the progression of both.

 

Does the Kreider contract look as bad if the nhl didn’t immediately implement no cap growth?

 

And they can probably still sell off Kreider for a decent return, regardless of how much rangers fans whine. He scores, he skates, great in front, One of the top PP scorers in the league, etc

 

 

I’d love for Drury to set the internal cap hit at Zibanejad’s current contract - unless you prove you’re a better overall player than him.

[BrooksBurner]

Does the Kreider contract look as bad if the nhl didn’t immediately implement no cap growth?

 

And they can probably still sell off Kreider for a decent return, regardless of how much rangers fans whine. He scores, he skates, great in front, One of the top PP scorers in the league, etc

 

 

I’d love for Drury to set the internal cap hit at Zibanejad’s current contract - unless you prove you’re a better overall player than him.

 

Agreed on Kreider. He is easily movable if he were to waive the NMC. That's really what it'd come down to. There would be no shortage of trade partners.

[LindG1000]

I think you can get Buch for 2 yrs x 5-5.25M. Slightly more than Strome got. I don't think you need to go long term. I also think he might just want to kick the can a couple of years and hope the cap goes up to get more $ on a long term deal.

 

I'm happy to be proven wrong, but I just don't know if you get Buch that cheap. I know we just got that with Strome, so, hey....maybe I am.

 

Buch has a good deal of leverage here - the Rangers have the space to pay him, he's got arbitration as an avenue, he's coming off a massive season in which he set career highs across the board - began PKing and still gets no PP time, he's an RFA negotiating UFA years in all likelihood, and he's never really been in the "what the fuck are you doing" space Strome was in for a while.

 

Look - if he puts pen to paper on 2y/10m, great. I'll eat my words. I just don't see a reason why he doesn't start by pointing at the Kreider contract or higher.

[josh]

His QO is only 3m.

 

Do you risk a 1 year deal with arbitration? I mean, they don’t have cap issues next season, and can afford it.

 

Wait another season?

But, as Pete mentioned, it’s another contract season for him.

Do we see if the other kids can displace him next season?

[Ozzy]

If we can keep him for $4.5-$5 mil a year for 2 years, I'd be thrilled. That I think we can roll with. I'm not sure when Kreider's NMC switches to a MNTC, but those extra 2 seasons may just be all we need to figure out what we've got in most of these kids up front, and on defense as well.

 

That could surely clarify where we could be spending the proper amounts of green.

 

I have nothing against Buchnevich at all. I just keep looking at that Kreider deal, and I need blood pressure medication! ;)

[Flynn]

If we can keep him for $4.5-$5 mil a year for 2 years, I'd be thrilled. That I think we can roll with. I'm not sure when Kreider's NMC switches to a MNTC, but those extra 2 seasons may just be all we need to figure out what we've got in most of these kids up front, and on defense as well.

 

That could surely clarify where we could be spending the proper amounts of green.

 

I have nothing against Buchnevich at all. I just keep looking at that Kreider deal, and I need blood pressure medication! ;)

 

Hopefully that ESPN/TNT money helps the cap in 2022

[CBrowningPI]

Buch's skating and puck handling skills have looked atrocious many times this year. His game is very opportunistic and if his linemates are playing badly then so is he. Sometimes he looks like a bonafide 1st line winger but most of the time, in my eyes he's a 2nd, 3rd line winger. There has been many a night on the penalty kill where he could have had a clear breakaway but he just doesn't have the speed and skill or confidence to follow through on those plays. His production sells him as a player but I believe this season was his ceiling and they should trade him while his value is at this peak.

[Long live the King]

Buch's skating and puck handling skills have looked atrocious many times this year. His game is very opportunistic and if his linemates are playing badly then so is he. Sometimes he looks like a bonafide 1st line winger but most of the time, in my eyes he's a 2nd, 3rd line winger. There has been many a night on the penalty kill where he could have had a clear breakaway but he just doesn't have the speed and skill or confidence to follow through on those plays. His production sells him as a player but I believe this season was his ceiling and they should trade him while his value is at this peak.

 

"if his linemates are playing badly then so is he"....

 

....checks notes

[Guest]

Does the Kreider contract look as bad if the nhl didn’t immediately implement no cap growth?

 

And they can probably still sell off Kreider for a decent return, regardless of how much rangers fans whine. He scores, he skates, great in front, One of the top PP scorers in the league, etc

 

 

I’d love for Drury to set the internal cap hit at Zibanejad’s current contract - unless you prove you’re a better overall player than him.

 

It is 100% hindsight of the cap stagnation and winning the draft lottery with a no-brainer LW as the selection. So I don't mind the Kreider contract (outside of the NMC). The situation with Buchnevich for me is the same as Kreider but with the benefit of hindsight before handing it out. We know we have two top RW prospects and we know the cap is going to be flat. Buch is worth $6M x 5 right now. I just wouldn't sign him to that based on the factors I've mentioned.

[SaveByRichter35]

It is 100% hindsight of the cap stagnation and winning the draft lottery with a no-brainer LW as the selection. So I don't mind the Kreider contract (outside of the NMC). The situation with Buchnevich for me is the same as Kreider but with the benefit of hindsight before handing it out. We know we have two top RW prospects and we know the cap is going to be flat. Buch is worth $6M x 5 right now. I just wouldn't sign him to that based on the factors I've mentioned.

 

Agreed with this.

[Phil]

He's in his last year as an RFA. Given the potential talent this team has on the wings and the assets (specifically on defense) that they can use to upgrade down the road as needed, I think I push for a 2 year prove it deal where if he does gain consistency at this level, you either pay him then or let him walk (plus potentially get a small haul as a rental if the Rangers aren't in a playoff position at that point).

 

So I'm looking at 1-2 years around $4.5M per. Also known as "The Ryan Strome".

 

My fear is that he becomes LW Chris Kreider if you lock him up long term and he gets pushed down the lineup by Kakko and Kravtsov which is a realistic expectation given the progression of both.

 

The answer to the question — is he a first-line player — is yes. The situation isn't actually that simple, however, as you mentioned. Kakko and Kravtsov are both NHL players. Both look light years better than their draft years. Both look like they'll be legitimate top-six NHL players.

 

Add to this the fact that Buchnevich — a career 0.65 P/GP player and 13.7% shooter — outpaced both by a significant margin (0.9 P/GP, 16.7 S%) this past season and it's major 'buyer beware' territory. Not in the sense that he's not a top-six player, but in the sense that, like Kreider, he can quickly be leapfrogged on the depth chart, leaving the team with a really expensive third-line player when contracts come due for his replacements.

 

He's not really what's "wrong" with their lack of size/strength, but barring a trade to acquire a clear physical upgrade, he strikes me as the kind of guy you keep for another year or two, if you can convince him on the extra season) and take right to free agency. Let him walk from there.