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Neal Pionk is Complicating the Rangers? Defensive Logjam


Phil

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Adam Clendening Zone starts offensive 68.3% defensive 31.7%

https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/NYR/2017.html

 

So what the Corsi is missing but the zone starts is suggesting is that in 2016-7, Adam Clendening spent a lot of time in the offensive zone, where his team generated a lot of shots.

 

The Corsi has little to do with his effectiveness as a defenseman. It has a lot to do with the situations the team faced when he was on the ice.

Clendo is the hill that a lot of the more analytically inclined people die on.

 

He's terrible. The opposite of Pionk lol

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That's not really how it reads.

 

People are also mostly responding to your "in 4-5 years he's not on my team" comment.

 

No, they aren't. They're responding to the handful of possession metrics that were mentioned in one paragraph as a possible excuse for the Rangers stashing an otherwise productive Pionk in the minors.

 

Him not being on my team in 4-5 years doesn't hinge on that. It's part of the pie, certainly, but it would hinge moreso on age, contract status to that point (he'd be 28, and clearly on some level of a UFA contract), and most of all the progress (or lack thereof) of the guys I think, on paper, are more likely to be workhorses for the team by then. Namely Hajek, Miller, Lindgren, and Lundkvist.

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Not really. Good active stick, makes defensive plays. Good skater, gets around, covers reasonably well, pretty good exiting the zone. Very rarely makes huge gaffes.

Struggles with shot suppression, granted, and can be a bit careless with the puck.

 

Good description, yet as Future mentioned, we've seen how his size can be a liability in the D zone. He can get bodied off the puck, struggles to move guys like Tkachuk, and can get boxed out. So how do smaller dmen mitigate being weak in this area. Some say get stronger, but at this point it may be very incremental.

 

What I'm seeing is good tactics to adjust. He uses quickness and understands the value of playing fast. He's learning to use leverage and a good stick, instead of strength, to defend. His aptitude and focus provides for him to identify where the play is going and beat the attack to the area. Or just get position on his man. Experience in the NHL and recognition/good anticipation is what he needs now to keep getting better. I think he'll continue to work hard, he has a good coach and situation for himself.

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No, they aren't. They're responding to the handful of possession metrics that were mentioned in one paragraph as a possible excuse for the Rangers stashing an otherwise productive Pionk in the minors.

 

Him not being on my team in 4-5 years doesn't hinge on that. It's part of the pie, certainly, but it would hinge moreso on age, contract status to that point (he'd be 28, and clearly on some level of a UFA contract), and most of all the progress (or lack thereof) of the guys I think, on paper, are more likely to be workhorses for the team by then. Namely Hajek, Miller, Lindgren, and Lundkvist.

 

Future may be referring to me, because that is exactly what surprised me as I read down the thread. And what I was disagreeing with. I assumed you might be considering contract status, but there is other options to manage it. If mgmt likes what they see, when he's an RFA they could buy a few years to take him to 30 or so. It is good injury insurance for smaller players.

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Corsi is a flawed statistic when evaluating defensemen, because (adjusted) shot differential isn't measuring a defenseman's primary responsibilities (negating scoring chances, puck movement, etc). At best it is an indirect measure that may correlate with a defenseman's ability.

 

By corsi statistics, by a large margin, our best defensemen was Adam Clendening in 2016-7.

 

https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/NYR/2017.html

 

Adam Clendening CF% 56.7 CF% Rel 9.4

Ryan McDonagh DF% 46.7 CF% Rel -2.1

 

Really an awesome point and post(s) with a great example. Fletch is bringing the goods.

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No, they aren't. They're responding to the handful of possession metrics that were mentioned in one paragraph as a possible excuse for the Rangers stashing an otherwise productive Pionk in the minors.

 

Him not being on my team in 4-5 years doesn't hinge on that. It's part of the pie, certainly, but it would hinge moreso on age, contract status to that point (he'd be 28, and clearly on some level of a UFA contract), and most of all the progress (or lack thereof) of the guys I think, on paper, are more likely to be workhorses for the team by then. Namely Hajek, Miller, Lindgren, and Lundkvist.

It reads that "bad possession metrics means not on the team in the future," whether you meant to do that or not.

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It reads that "bad possession metrics means not on the team in the future," whether you meant to do that or not.

 

OK, well for like the fifth time, that wasn't my intention. You've written with me long enough to know I don't actually believe that (or at least I'd hope so), so why are we still tripping over this when I've corrected it multiple times in this thread?

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Clendo is the hill that a lot of the more analytically inclined people die on.

 

He's terrible. The opposite of Pionk lol

 

Corsi advocates would say that Clendening is an outlier that can be explained by zonal stats, and overall the metric is sound. I would say that Clendening is an outlier that shows there are limits to how the metric should be applied - it's useful data for analysis in the proper context for the right questions, but shouldn't be used to evaluated a defenseman's relative effectiveness.

 

To answer a question you should use the right data. And if a metric isn't appropriate, you should find a different metric.

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OK, well for like the fifth time, that wasn't my intention. You've written with me long enough to know I don't actually believe that (or at least I'd hope so), so why are we still tripping over this when I've corrected it multiple times in this thread?

 

B/c that's where the conversation went lol.

 

It's a fair conversation regardless of what you meant to say.

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