BrooksBurner Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Man...tough crowd here on Pionk. I see a pretty promising player who is very confident with the puck on his stick. I see a lot of potential. I can't explain his poor advanced stats ...but they only mean so much. See Kevin Hayes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giacomin Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Man...tough crowd here on Pionk. I see a pretty promising player who is very confident with the puck on his stick. I see a lot of potential. I can't explain his poor advanced stats ...but they only mean so much. See Kevin Hayes. I agree and much of his time has been shared with Staal who is not going to help those adv stats. Pionk has that puck control sharpness with great footwork that makes him look more like Jarred Spurgeon than Diaz. He is already a better player than Diaz ever was with less than a half a season in the show. He appears to have a good aptitude too and is super serious about improving. But Pete, I'll agree about Future's proposed D pairings. I'm imagining Pion and Hajek. Phil, you'd see those possession #'s move. I was also going to say two iffy games early skew the #'s too much. And those were the earliest games with this new system/coach. Corsi needs time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Man...tough crowd here on Pionk. I see a pretty promising player who is very confident with the puck on his stick. I see a lot of potential. I can't explain his poor advanced stats ...but they only mean so much. See Kevin Hayes. I’m assuming Pionks weak advanced stats are from his issues in his own zone. But, again, he’s a rookie, in a new system. I tagged on him last season, but I think he’s playing much better this season. Like Phil, he’s not a guy I pencil into my lineup 5 seasons in the future, but he can play himself in. Also, Kevin Hayes has bad advanced stats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giacomin Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Deployment plays a role as does a myraid of things including the quality of the team you play on and your comp. You need time to smooth some of that out. Josh, whoever, I understand he has not entered Spurgeon's realm. Spurgeon is super quick, great vision and makes good snap decisions consistently. He also probably has quicker hands. But think about it. Pionk is a smart player who knows he needs to play quick. They have lots of comparable attributes. Pionk has a shot and knows how to get it through and lift it some. He'll go to the net. His quick twitch hips and feet allows him to change directions on a dime like Jarred. You even see his good movement gets him back into position when he errs. He is learning his angles and gaps in this new D and against pros. He is going to get better and better, we are just going to have to pick this discussion back up next thanksgiving to find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooksBurner Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 I’m assuming Pionks weak advanced stats are from his issues in his own zone. But, again, he’s a rookie, in a new system. I tagged on him last season, but I think he’s playing much better this season. Like Phil, he’s not a guy I pencil into my lineup 5 seasons in the future, but he can play himself in. Also, Kevin Hayes has bad advanced stats? Partially mistaken about Kevin Hayes. His corsi has generally been below average. I saw all offseason during the "short term vs long term" contract debates the argument of even strength goals in combination with dZS%. Pionk is not a guaranteed thing, but it would not surprise me at all if he is still on this team in 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 I don’t monitor advanced stats, just wondering. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Depending on his next contract I believe he'll be UFA eligible within 5 years and also about 29... So I doubt he's still here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Depending on his next contract I believe he'll be UFA eligible within 5 years and also about 29... So I doubt he's still here. We have a lockout or two during that time. We’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 23, 2018 Author Share Posted October 23, 2018 I agree and much of his time has been shared with Staal who is not going to help those adv stats. Pionk has that puck control sharpness with great footwork that makes him look more like Jarred Spurgeon than Diaz. He is already a better player than Diaz ever was with less than a half a season in the show. He appears to have a good aptitude too and is super serious about improving. But Pete, I'll agree about Future's proposed D pairings. I'm imagining Pion and Hajek. Phil, you'd see those possession #'s move. I was also going to say two iffy games early skew the #'s too much. And those were the earliest games with this new system/coach. Corsi needs time. Of course it does. That's why I also included the larger sample size from last season for context. He was dead last in multiple categories including Corsi relative over that span. But I don't disagree that the CAR game skews this year's numbers, or that he'll improve closer to average with more ice time and a more stable partner. I just don't think he'll ever move into the black. Not for very long. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 23, 2018 Author Share Posted October 23, 2018 I?m assuming Pionks weak advanced stats are from his issues in his own zone. But, again, he?s a rookie, in a new system. I tagged on him last season, but I think he?s playing much better this season. Like Phil, he?s not a guy I pencil into my lineup 5 seasons in the future, but he can play himself in. Agreed. Also, Kevin Hayes has bad advanced stats? Not really, no. He's south of break even (50%) in Corsi for over his career but really only had one particularly poor season (2016-17) where he was significantly negative in multiple categories (CF, rel CF, FF, rel FF, etc). He's mostly a break even player. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fletch Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Of course it does. That's why I also included the larger sample size from last season for context. He was dead last in multiple categories including Corsi relative over that span. But I don't disagree that the CAR game skews this year's numbers, or that he'll improve closer to average with more ice time and a more stable partner. I just don't think he'll ever move into the black. Not for very long. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Take those relative corsi statistics with a grain of salt. Ryan McDonagh has been negative every single year of his career except for one. https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/m/mcdonry01-advanced.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giacomin Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Of course it does. That's why I also included the larger sample size from last season for context. He was dead last in multiple categories including Corsi relative over that span. But I don't disagree that the CAR game skews this year's numbers, or that he'll improve closer to average with more ice time and a more stable partner. I just don't think he'll ever move into the black. Not for very long. Hard to weigh much into last year, the kid was shell shocked and barely kept his nose above water the first ~10 games. He did all he could on O to offset the hot mess he was on D. For a while. it seemed the kid would never settle down and was scrambling here, there and everywhere. He struggled with positioning and the quick decisions/plays top pros make. He hung tough, got acclimated, focused on working/playing hard, built some confidence and improved some. He looks steadier and more poised this year, especially after sitting two, but also in preseason. A lot of games to go, but he's determined enough to not bet against him. The promise is he looks impressive with the puck and can be a positive corsi player. The eye test says he can maintain control as he maneuvers tight spaces. That always helps. It will be interesting to see what his #'s look like next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sod16 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 I think Giacomin's projection of Pionk to be a Spurgeon, a guy who I have watched a lot, is apt. Eight is definitely untenable for more than the first three or four weeks of the year. Between McQuaid and Claesson, I'll take the latter as a veteran to have around. I'd just soon not wait until the deadline to dispatch McQuaid. How about a rest for #18 once in a while. Playing 70 rather than 82 games would be good for him. Shatty has been too good of an NHL player for too long to talk about getting rid of him without an adequate amount of time to get his game in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fletch Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Context matters when looking at statistics. Corsi statistics are more valuable when looking at forwards - it matters how effective they are at creating shots. With defensemen, preventing quality scoring chances and cleanly handling the puck (acquiring, possessing, and getting the puck out of the zone, preferably to a teammate) are more important than raw shot statistics. All shots aren't created equal and shouldn't be treated that way. And zone usage and quality of competition factors in as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 23, 2018 Author Share Posted October 23, 2018 Take those relative corsi statistics with a grain of salt. Ryan McDonagh has been negative every single year of his career except for one. https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/m/mcdonry01-advanced.html Not to the same degree. This isn't black and white. There's a spectrum I'm particularly interested in. It's why Hayes, for example, isn't railed on for performing just south of break even. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Future Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Take those relative corsi statistics with a grain of salt. Ryan McDonagh has been negative every single year of his career except for one. https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/m/mcdonry01-advanced.html Yea - this is why I'm not particularly concerned about Pionk's CF%. Deployment really dictates possession stats for the majority of players, there aren't a lot who have a significantly >50% and >50% CF. Last season, there were 29 defensemen, total, who accomplished that - and a lot of them were third pair types. There were 11 with a CF% >52 - of that group, only Slavin, Doughty, and OEM are playing against top pairs. So, tl;dr, the top defensemen who take a heavy NZS against top competition almost never have a positive CF%. That's true for Mac and was punishingly true for Pionk last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 23, 2018 Author Share Posted October 23, 2018 The word of the day today is: DEGREE. It's an issue of degree. McDonagh was almost never a positive corsi player either. But his relative numbers (sans this year) were never so stark like Pionk's have been. I agree that that has been somewhat inflated due to a combination of low sample size of games and a handful of particularly bad outings, but the point is that he's struggled to an elevated level with closing the gap on offensive generation versus offensive generation against. You'd think some of you never read this article given I'm actually defending Pionk throughout it, and only use the analytics numbers to argue that if the Rangers sent him down in spite of good play, that they'd have some math on their side to support the decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fletch Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Corsi is a flawed statistic when evaluating defensemen, because (adjusted) shot differential isn't measuring a defenseman's primary responsibilities (negating scoring chances, puck movement, etc). At best it is an indirect measure that may correlate with a defenseman's ability. By corsi statistics, by a large margin, our best defensemen was Adam Clendening in 2016-7. https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/NYR/2017.html Adam Clendening CF% 56.7 CF% Rel 9.4 Ryan McDonagh DF% 46.7 CF% Rel -2.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravesy Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 I agree in general, but if the relative corsi is standout bad it tells you something. It's difficult with Pionk because he passes the eye test like a fucking champion. In his case I tend to lean on that for the most part. I see a really good player there, with some obvious areas of improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 I agree in general, but if the relative corsi is standout bad it tells you something. It's difficult with Pionk because he passes the eye test like a fucking champion. In his case I tend to lean on that. I see a really good player there, with some obvious areas of improvement. Fails the eye test in his own zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Progrocker Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 How about a rest for #18 once in a while. Playing 70 rather than 82 games would be good for him. Agreed, I like Staaly but at this point in his career on a rebuilding team with all these younger D men he's gotta sit a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Future Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 You'd think some of you never read this article given I'm actually defending Pionk throughout it, and only use the analytics numbers to argue that if the Rangers sent him down in spite of good play, that they'd have some math on their side to support the decision. That's not really how it reads. People are also mostly responding to your "in 4-5 years he's not on my team" comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravesy Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Fails the eye test in his own zone. Not really. Good active stick, makes defensive plays. Good skater, gets around, covers reasonably well, pretty good exiting the zone. Very rarely makes huge gaffes. Struggles with shot suppression, granted, and can be a bit careless with the puck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Future Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Not really. Good active stick, makes defensive plays. Good skater, gets around, covers reasonably well, pretty good exiting the zone. Very rarely makes huge gaffes. Struggles with shot suppression, granted, and can be a bit careless with the puck. He gets physically overmatched quite a bit. Kid needs to drink more milk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fletch Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Corsi is a flawed statistic when evaluating defensemen, because (adjusted) shot differential isn't measuring a defenseman's primary responsibilities (negating scoring chances, puck movement, etc). At best it is an indirect measure that may correlate with a defenseman's ability. By corsi statistics, by a large margin, our best defensemen was Adam Clendening in 2016-7. https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/NYR/2017.html Adam Clendening CF% 56.7 CF% Rel 9.4 Ryan McDonagh DF% 46.7 CF% Rel -2.1 Adam Clendening Zone starts offensive 68.3% defensive 31.7% https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/NYR/2017.html So what the Corsi is missing but the zone starts is suggesting is that in 2016-7, Adam Clendening spent a lot of time in the offensive zone, where his team generated a lot of shots. The Corsi has little to do with his effectiveness as a defenseman. It has a lot to do with the situations the team faced when he was on the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.