RangersIn7

Sure, but that was a stretch goal. It was always a small chance of them winning cup.

 

However, their imminent demise will give us a pretty good 2nd rounder.

They had 2-1 odds, 5 times better than the next highest odds.

Columbus is throttling Tampa.

Carrying the play

This will always be true of any player, so there is zero sum logic here.

Unless that player is Wade Redden.

All you needed was eyeballs to see what a disaster that would be.

Hard to assess how far through the rebuild they actually are. No one knows the timeframe that those actually in the organization placed on it or when they feel it started.

IMO, it started in June of 17 when they traded Step and bought out Girardi. That puts us 2 years in this upcoming Draft. Initially I felt it would be about 3 seasons worth of trades, stockpiling picks, prospects, and younger players, poor on ice results and picking high. I felt at that time 2 years ago they would start to see good results at the latter stages of 19-20 season, with an eye on being a bonafide playoff team again in 20-21 and improving from there.

That is still my viewpoint at this time.

Making the aforementioned adds of both Panarin and Karlsson should accelerate that timeframe. But that hasn’t happened yet, so I’ll stick to my original timeframe of 3 seasons.

I would say this draft and FA period closes out year 2 of the rebuild. While it might not have been the full on plan in everyone’s mind, the rebuild started when Step got traded at the 2017 draft. Gorton new he’d be going with a youth movement at some point at that time, he saw Stepan’s NTC was approaching, he didn’t want to be saddled with that, so he moved him. And didn’t really replace him with someone who could conceivably replace his ice time. Then 7-8 months later, out came the letter and the sell off.

I think even with some adds in FA this summer and obviously a huge piece at the draft coming, while they probably take a nice step forward , they’re still outside looking in as far as the playoffs go. That could be different depending on who they sign, how impactful rookies are, and how much some younger guys progress this year. But they’d still need to make about a 20 point improvement. That’s a huge jump and a lot to ask.

If it is Karlsson and Panarin, then a huge improvement won’t surprise me. If they only grab one, it would.

But either way, you’re still looking at a lot of ice time being consumed by rookies and kids. Karlsson and Panarin can’t carry every play or play every shift.

Every UFA is approaching 30. This logic means you never sign a player approaching UFA, even your own.

 

You can't win with a team full of 22-27 year olds. Or maybe you can? Seems unlikely though.

Approaching or at 30 isn’t the problem. It’s guys that age wanting 7 or 8 seasons at huge dollars carrying them until they are in their mid to late 30’s that’s the issue.

If they could get Karlsson for example on a 5 year deal, even if they have to duke him more money, they should pursue that heavily. Even if he declined you can live with 1 or even 2 years wherein he’s a diminished player with a huge cap hit and salary. But anymore than that, it’s a major problem.

But I can’t see him taking anything less than a max term deal.

Even in a capped sport, the money doesn’t kill the big market teams. The term is what hurts them.

And finally. Next year being in the lottery again would not be a bad place for this team. The 2020 draft is widely considered the best draft since 2003 and maybe the best ever. Another year of development without mortgaging the future would actually make a lot of sense. I know that’s hard to take but it’s the truth. This team should have its eyes on summer of 2020 to make the push you want. And that could all change very easily depending how things unfold but that should be the target.

I wouldn’t turn my nose up at another year of picking high. Or even another year of multiple 1st rounders.

Then what? He becomes a terrible hockey player? I don't see it happening. I agree about the injury concerns, but that's the only reason I'm skeptical.

Terrible. No

Not worth the monstrous cap hit he will surely carry anymore. Yes.

Guys age and skill sets decline.

I’m not saying that he couldn’t defy that. Just not as willing to roll the dice on him to the tune of say, 7 years and $85 million dollars as some others.

No, it doesn't have to be. But I'm not against it at all. I think Panarin is as close to a must as possible. I can easily be swayed on Karlsson, too, but if it has to be just one, it's Panarin all day long.

All for Panarin. Not so much on Karlsson. Just have a bad feeling on him, for the aforementioned reasons of being 29, contract carrying him to 36, wanting massive dollars, concerns of how he will age and how quickly/severely he might, and the Achilles injury. Put that in the hopper with the Rangers history and piss poor track record with FA’s at that age (yes I know they’re all different but the thought is still there and should be), and you have legitimate reasons to be concerned and reluctant.

I think Karlsson would do very well for 3-4 seasons. Beyond that I’m concerned. And I think on a deal the size he will command, you need at least 5 seasons of elite play and production and at least 1 Cup to say you got your money’s worth.

Just skeptical they get there with him. Feel much safer on Panarin

It's exactly when to open the checkbook and spend. Those guys who've yet to reach the NHL will be on entry-level deals worth pennies (relative to Karlsson and Panarin). You strike while the iron is hot, then worry about making room if and when they command new deals worth significant amounts.

Sure.

But it doesn’t have to be on both though.

No issue with buying 1 big piece now. They are available now, and you never know what the next FA class will actually look like till you get there. Whether or not they have to do it to build a contender, they?re still the Rangers and it?s still NY, so they?re going to swim in those waters. That?s always going to be a club in their bag, even if they?ve shifted to a strategy of building primarily through the draft.

But two huge contracts on FA from outside the organization? At a point where so many guys who are viewed as future key pieces have yet to even reach the NHL yet? Maybe not the time to open the checkbook quite that far and stay conservative in their spending.

And do they honestly want to dump say, $23 million a year and over $150 million in total in the lap of 2 players this summer when they?ve heavily adopted a home grown approach? I don?t know.

Definitely should spend money this summer. They have their coach and a system. They?ve filled the organization with prospects and more are coming in June. So it?s time to start bringing in some vets that are part of a longer term plan for sure. I just don?t know that they should spend so many bullets in one shootout.

There is literally nothing to suggest you’ll be paying for what he did in the past though.

He’s been outstanding this year.

To be fair, you are right. There isn’t anything to suggest that right now.

But he still scares the shit out of me. Maybe it’s just their history and poor track record in signing high-priced free agents who are at or near 30 and up. Maybe it’s the fact that we see fewer guys nowadays play at very high levels into their early and middle 30’s. Part of it is just my gut telling me that they won’t get their moneys worth after the 3rd or 4th year of his deal. Also I have a feeling that signing him results in a buyout for one of Staal, Smith or Shattenkirk which I don’t want to see this summer because it means 4 years of dead cap space. I can live with 2 years of that. But 4 years of that is damned ugly on your balance sheet. Even if it isn’t prohibitive and you get some cap savings I still don’t like it.

I guess I just have a bad feeling on him. Justified or not, you can’t say there aren’t fair concerns on handing a guy 7 years and probably $80 million plus at 29. His best weapon is his legs. And legs go when guys age and move into their 30’s generally.

This is why I'm warming up to the idea. He's an elite talent. Those other guys weren't close to elite.

 

There are plenty of examples of defensemen playing at a very high level into their mid 30s. One of them is Karlsson's teammate by the way (Burns, who just turned 34 and had the best year of his career). Dan Boyle was very good well into his 30s. Of course, the Rangers got him too late at 38 lol. Brian Leetch was very good well into his 30s. Karlsson is in the company with these guys, not bums like Wade Redden.

 

If he's healthy, I wouldn't be concerned. He has been increasingly injury prone though, and that's the part that concerns me.

The Sharks still have the inside track on keeping Karlsson. They can offer him 8 years and thus the most total dollars. Even with Pavelski and Meier as UFA and RFA respectively needing new contracts, they should have the cap space. They probably don’t bring Nyquist back, and if Thornton wants to continue playing and stay in San Jose, he can do another 1 year deal and take less money. He loves it there and it would not be any surprise if he did so.

Obviously every player is different, but most guys absolutely love it in that area. It’s an extremely desirable place to live, work, and raise a family, especially if you’re rich. So many guys over the years have fallen in love with that place. And many guys have taken discounts to stay or go there.

And there’s like next to no pressure out there. It’s not like an original 6 market or a Canadian market, or even a bigger US market. They’ve had great teams out there for years, been to only 1 SC finals and no Cup. And it’s basically just whatever. Media and fan scrutiny on them is very minimal. That has its appeal too.

Obviously Karlsson supposedly really likes NY too, so it’s still very much possible he has high interest in the Rangers. But I still think SJ has best shot.

Not unless he's going to play for 900k

Yeah

The money and an available roster spot could be obstacles

Well we will have to see if Henrik is still capable of being an NHL goalie in 2 more years, but if he is there should be no problem keeping him around as a veteran backup. How he treated Georgiev this season makes me think he would be fine on a low dollar backup role, especially if the team is on the upswing and a contender.

Hank’s presence on the roster after 20-21 is heavily dependent upon Georgiev and Shestyorkin and how those two develop and play, assuming neither of them is traded or off the roster somehow in the next couple of seasons. If he still has something left to his game, I could see him sticking around and transitioning to a backup role at less money.

But that may not be available to him.

It’s official.

Kucherov suspended for Game 3 Sunday night in Columbus.

That hole just got deeper for Tampa

Signing Karlsson would be a rangers thing to do. Will regret it in 3-4 years and have a huge contract eating up a lot of the cap when kravtsov, kakko, chytil, howden, lias etc needs new contracts.

 

 

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They need to stay away

Lol I understand the reaction. I can't say I am sold on the idea of adding him, but I am warming up to it. Unless he gets further hurt, which is entirely possible, it would be years before we might start looking at it as an overpayment. Lineup looks pretty good with him and Panarin both in it though, and provides a significant amount of talent and leadership to the roster. It also provides several years of defensive competence at the top while our young defensive prospects come of age.

I certainly see the appeal of him. His skill is undeniable. He’s a game changer. No argument.

But 29 in 6 weeks. Have to give him 7 years to get him. Have to go north of 11 million per. Probably a full NMC. Has had some injuries including a very significant one to his ankle. Got to pay him huge money until age 36. I can’t see him being what he is as a player passed age 31-32.

His skill set WILL erode in the next 3-4 seasons. That’s assuming he’s 100% healthy. When it goes for him, he will hit the wall hard. And they’ll be stuck with a shell of a player on a massive contract that will be impossible to move. Right around the time they’ll need to start paying younger guys and hopefully needing to add payroll to beef up for Cup runs.

It’s just too risky. They’ve been down that road too many times before. And the results have never been good. They seem to finally have realized that.

I’m not all about Panarin either. And he’s 1 1/2 years younger with about half as many games played in NHL. He’s less a risk to me. And might actually be slightly cheaper.

They can pass on both and I’d be ok with it. But if they have to choose between the two, I say Panarin.

I sound a broken record I’m sure, but I don’t think they’re a contender next year even if they got both those guys. Too many holes. Too many young guys would have to make huge leaps forward immensely fast.

Rushing a rebuild is a sure fire way to fuck up a rebuild.

Let the young guys who are up continue to grow. They’ll have some key rookies next year who will definitely hit speed bumps. There are key future pieces still not at the NHL level who will likely still not be there next year.

After next season, they’re down to 1 season remaining on Hank, Staal, Smith, and Shatty. They may be able to move 1 at next years deadline. They can look at a buyout on one more. And at worst they carry expiring contracts on whom ever is left into 20-21, which is perfectly fine.

But I think in 20-21, if they stay the course, they can be vastly improved, be staring more payroll flexibility in the face at close range, and really start taking steps toward making a serious run at a Cup.

Tampa better wake up

Want that extra 1st

Panarin and Karlsson are both getting in the vicinity of 11M per year probably. If the cap goes up to 83M, they would have 21M in space. They need to sign Buchnevich, Lemieux, Pionk, and Deangelo to new contracts. If Panarin signs at 11M, they have 10M left to do so. That's tight, but assume that's possible. Creating another 11M for Karlsson is not an easy task. Possibilities:

 

- Trade Strome, Namestnikov, Vesey for whatever low round picks you can get. Replace on the roster with players on ELC (Kakko/Hughes, Kravtsov, ?). Saves you 6.7M. An additional 4.5M of space is still needed.

- Find a taker for Shattenkirk. This has to happen. No way around it. That might cost Winnipeg's 1st round pick to shed his salary, if any team is even interested. That would save you another 6.65M if taking no money back.

 

This creates 13.35M in cap space to go get Karlsson and have some wiggle room. It would all be worth it, but it's so many moving pieces that I doubt it happens.

Please, God, no no no to Erik Karlsson.

That will be a catastrophic mistake that they will regret in very short order.

I cannot see a reasonable scenario in which they are contenders next year. At best they’re a bubble team or a low seed that loses in 1st round.

What I’m actually hoping for is another year of futility and a lottery pick that opens the door to 15 years of contention.

Like Pittsburgh

If Arizona thought there was anything at #7 you wouldn't have got that pick for Stepan.

Yup. It was a shit draft. Everyone knew it.

They felt better with Step and his large, immovable contract than drafting a kid. By no means did they have a burning desire to acquire Derek Stepan.

But I don’t think Lias was a waste. He has a future in the NHL.