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Everything posted by RodrigueGabriel
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2023-24 ECSF #1: Rangers vs. Carolina Hurricanes — Cry
RodrigueGabriel replied to Phil's topic in New York Rangers
Oh yeah, baybee! -
2023-24 ECSF #1: Rangers vs. Carolina Hurricanes — Cry
RodrigueGabriel replied to Phil's topic in New York Rangers
Ok, boys. First order of business: completely snuff out their will to live. NOW LET'S GO!!!! -
Playoffs Rangers-Hurricanes Round Two — General Series Thread
RodrigueGabriel replied to Phil's topic in New York Rangers
It's not because the analytics don't tell me what I want to hear, it's because they don't seem to be able to explain why the Rangers won the most games in the NHL this season. I think there is a variety of methodologies that can produce huge differences in outcomes - i.e. the CSA-NST discrepancy. So I don't feel like the current state of analytics deserves all the oxygen that it's taking up, because in the end, playoff series are going to be resolved by things that analytics don't and can't actually measure. -
Playoffs Rangers-Hurricanes Round Two — General Series Thread
RodrigueGabriel replied to Phil's topic in New York Rangers
I think you and Dom and all the other people who want to reduce human desire and competition to an equation are grasping for control of something that is not predictable or quantifiable. A Playoff series like this is more like a prize fight than coming up with the magic determinative sum of analytic parts. These teams are super close and this series won't be about number of zone entries or shot share or whatever analytic fuck-all. It's going to be about which group of men want it more, about who can take a punch and get back up, who can dig out that last ounce of energy when both teams are exhausted in a 2nd or 3rd overtime. Talent, skill, strategy, technique, and past performance will all be in play, but the outcome will be determined by the ability to seize the moment, endurance, resilience, heart. Look at Boston, who looked up mid-series having completely lost their game. None of the regular season analytics would tell you shit about why that would happen, because it didn't happen until the heat and pressure conditions of a Playoff series. Seems like all of the forecasts revolve on pretty small differences. I'm tired of reading them. Let the fight begin. -
Oh yeah, there was that guy who said, "If I had the Rangers payroll, I'd win the Stanley Cup every year." Thanks for the memories, Slats.
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Playoffs Rangers-Hurricanes Round Two — General Series Thread
RodrigueGabriel replied to Phil's topic in New York Rangers
Their argument would def be suspect as the Rangers took 2 of 3. -
Playoffs Rangers-Hurricanes Round Two — General Series Thread
RodrigueGabriel replied to Phil's topic in New York Rangers
I'm still trying to get my mind around the expected goals stuff. How's this for a paradox? NYR played 3 games against CAR this season. In the 1st and 3rd, they were well underwater for 5v5 xGF% (40.22 and 41.70) and in the 2nd they cleared 50% (50.39) according to NST. Except they won the 1st and 3rd games 2-1 and 1-0 respectively and lost the 2nd 6-1 (which was during the Rangers' January slump). So, when they had the best xGF%, they got completely blown out, while at a significant xGF% deficit they won 2 gutty defensive slogs (as I remember them) where the two teams were roughly even in high danger chances at 5v5 (8-8 and 10-11). In the 1st game (11/2), NYR and CAR each had a PPG and Cuylle scored the only other goal at 5v5. Total SOG were 27-26 CAR. In the 3rd (3/12), Fox scored the only goal of the game at 5v5 and the Rangers were outshot 28-24. So it's not like Igor had to stand on his head and make 45 saves in either game. The Rangers were 5-2 vs COL, CAR and DAL, three of the top five NHL teams in xGF%. That's roughly the same winning% vs that group as the rest of the league. Their 2 best games for 5v5 xGF% - by a fairly wide margin - were the two they lost, by 6-3 and 6-1 margins. Go figure. There is something about what makes the Rangers good at winning hockey games that is not captured by these numbers - whether or not xGF% has correlated to success. We'll see if it plays out differently in the Playoffs. -
Playoffs 2023-24 ECQF: Panthers vs. Lightning
RodrigueGabriel replied to Phil's topic in Hockey Around the Globe
Florida is a freaking battle wagon. -
Interesting that both Florida and Carolina blew their clinch games yesterday, leaving NYR with the opportunity to be the only one of the 8 1st round series to sweep. That said, not a lock by any means. The Caps are going to want to goon it up to reassert themselves, but they're dead if they make too many trips to the box. Pressure is all on them. Sprung for the lower section (was not super pricey), so I'll be up close and personal.
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Playoffs Rangers-Capitals Round One — General Series Thread
RodrigueGabriel replied to Phil's topic in New York Rangers
Looking back at the replay, first contact on TVR was Rempe's hip to the middle of his chest. Think about that for a second.