Parsley Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Tuesday morning update, still looks like a landfall in eastern NC between Wilmington and Cape Hatteras as the most likely scenario. What that would result in is immense coastal flooding, erosion and damage for the outer banks of NC and widespread inland flooding for North Carolina and Virginia. Models are diverging on the details once the storm reaches eastern NC, many try to sit it over that area for days which would be awful in terms of flooding. 72 hour plotted forecast below, different model runs of the same model over the course of the past 2 days. X marks are verifications of storm location along modeled paths so far. This model has done a solid job so far based on those plots. Again, as the storm nears the coast there are some differing paths. http://content.invisioncic.com/r250037/monthly_2018_09/tr8.png.6c72644955552b7cc2a980f3d5ea828c.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LONG LONG LONG TIME FAN Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Whether or not ------- GO RANGERS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Just a horrible scenario setting up over North Carolina, parts of Virginia and South Carolina. Pretty good agreement as we draw closer to the event with regards to location for a landfall which then could be followed by the storm losing almost all its forward speed and dumping feet of rain over that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 If the storm gets buried that far south, it would spare areas further north from many adverse effects other than coastal flooding and beach erosion with a prolong easterly fetch of the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonGecko Posted September 11, 2018 Author Share Posted September 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Slight shifts southwest over the past 24 hours puts Myrtle Beach, SC to Wilmington, NC in the cross hairs. An ugly 3-5 days for the Carolinas. Even if the storm weakens some as it slows and interacts with land near landfall the rainfall will be tremendous. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Dey fucked. [ATTACH]300[/ATTACH] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vodka Drunkenski Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 So what?s the time frame of this thing? I want to figure out if we will be delayed Saturday morning. And what are the chances it shifts south to Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 So what?s the time frame of this thing? I want to figure out if we will be delayed Saturday morning. And what are the chances it shifts south to Florida? Shouldn?t shift that far south. Timing looks like shit weather Friday-Sunday for NC and SC and then into parts of Georgia and Virginia as it moves inland throughout the weekend. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 A flight to Florida from Newark on Saturday will require the plane to head west toward Ohio and Kentucky and then south through Tennessee and Alabama before hooking back east into Florida. Atleast in my eyes. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Not much change in the overall look to things. Major impact for eastern SC and eastern NC both coast and inland. Outer bands of the hurricane starting to come on shore now. Going to be a long 3-4 days for those folks. Even though it is no longer a "major" hurricane the slow speed of the storm will allow it to dump flooding rain while the beaches get battered for days with tidal flooding, major waves and beach erosion. http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kilma_h.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYR2711 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 My wife cousin was doing work at Busch Gardens in Virginia, they set up all the theme parks for the holidays, and she was flown back to Georgia to do something real quick, and was supposed to fly back to Virginia on Friday morning. Now she doesn't know what is going to happen. She told us she might be stuck in a hotel for the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Not much change in the overall look to things. Major impact for eastern SC and eastern NC both coast and inland. Outer bands of the hurricane starting to come on shore now. Going to be a long 3-4 days for those folks. Even though it is no longer a "major" hurricane the slow speed of the storm will allow it to dump flooding rain while the beaches get battered for days with tidal flooding, major waves and beach erosion. http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kilma_h.gifWeather Channel is calling this the storm of a lifetime... #clickbait? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 My wife cousin was doing work at Busch Gardens in Virginia, they set up all the theme parks for the holidays, and she was flown back to Georgia to do something real quick, and was supposed to fly back to Virginia on Friday morning. Now she doesn't know what is going to happen. She told us she might be stuck in a hotel for the next couple of days. Luckily both Georgia and even coastal Virginia should be spared the worst of it as the Carolinas take a direct hit. That sucks she could be stuck though. Places like Wilmington NC and Myrtle Beach SC look to see the worst overall (rain + wind) impact. I think plenty of inland towns (many of which are very low income, unfortunately) are going to see devastating flooding. Sad. http://content.invisioncic.com/r250037/monthly_2018_09/tr8.png.01b35502b576d239b18eab5cdab47da5.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYR2711 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 They were saying on the news that there are tons of smaller streams that run through both North and South Carolina that empty into the ocean, and they are afraid that the water is going to get pushed back up stream and cause massive flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYR2711 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Weather Channel is calling this the storm of a lifetime... #clickbait? They said its gotten bigger, and that it is slowing down, so its going to pound them for a while, Ive heard 3+ feet of rain in area's. The eye is so well formed as well. This thing is going to be devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonGecko Posted September 13, 2018 Author Share Posted September 13, 2018 Seems like the intensity has been rapidly dropping, 4 to 3 to now 2. Seems like maybe a 1 on landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonGecko Posted September 13, 2018 Author Share Posted September 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Seems like the intensity has been rapidly dropping, 4 to 3 to now 2. Seems like maybe a 1 on landfall Yup. Unexpected upper level shear beat her down. Still a major rain and surge producer with its slow movement. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flynn Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 This is going to be a rain/flooding storm.. The winds will die down but the glacial pace of the storm will just bring so much water down.. I'm well inland and they are saying anywhere from 6 to 10 inches of rain. The coast is looking at 30+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 This is going to be a rain/flooding storm.. The winds will die down but the glacial pace of the storm will just bring so much water down.. I'm well inland and they are saying anywhere from 6 to 10 inches of rain. The coast is looking at 30+ Where you at exactly? Yup. Rain totals 50-100 miles inland could even be as high as the coast. Depends how the bands set up. Stay safe. http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kilma_h.gif Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flynn Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Thanks man- I'm in Charlotte.. It looks like it's going to move south before we get the worst part- we are just outside the band looking at 10-15 inches. I hate to wish it on anyone, but hope it stays away from here. My folks on the other hand, they live about half way up the coast between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington- needless to say they have headed inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Thanks man- I'm in Charlotte.. It looks like it's going to move south before we get the worst part- we are just outside the band looking at 10-15 inches. I hate to wish it on anyone, but hope it stays away from here. My folks on the other hand, they live about half way up the coast between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington- needless to say they have headed inland. Glad they got inland. Going to be a mess down there by the time the weekend is over. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Gusts in excess of 100 mph are being reported in buoys just off the NC coast. Obviously winds over water will be higher than over land due to less friction but this storm surely means business. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vodka Drunkenski Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Who has pity for those people that are begging for help now that they are getting flooded after not listening to authorities to evacuate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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