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Thread: Marner Watch 2019

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    Sure they should. Just not all by the same team. Otherwise, I completely agree. You lock down your stars, and you make a couple of margin calls. The rest are cap casualties.
    Depends on how you define "be paid". If you mean get their payday... If Lias or Chytil gives you more 20 point seasons...No, they shouldn't "be paid".

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    Quote Originally Posted by Future View Post
    Just because I think this is an interesting topic...let's assume that Howden had 35 points and would be getting his $4m next year. Here's the list of non-expiring ELC forwards who had 30-50 points:

    Nico Hischier - NJD
    Clayton Keller - ARZ
    Brady Tkachuk - OTT
    Jake DeBrusk - BOS
    Anthony Cirelli - TBL
    Dominik Kahun - PIT
    Andrei Svechnikov - CAR
    Jesperi Kotkaniemi - MTL
    Robert Thomas - STL
    Oskar Lindblom - PHI
    Jesper Bratt - NJD
    Nolan Patrick - PHI

    Out of that group, I don't see a 1-1 where the Rangers don't downgrade.
    wait, what?
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  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by josh View Post
    wait, what?
    I was assuming he had a typo.
    Outside of Kakko, Iíd pretty much trade any ranger for some of those players


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  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by josh View Post
    wait, what?
    Quote Originally Posted by Puck Head View Post
    I was assuming he had a typo.
    Outside of Kakko, I’d pretty much trade any ranger for some of those players


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    The other teams won't make those trades....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Future View Post
    More affordable generally means worse, though.

    If you're subbing, idk, Tyler Ennis for Pavel Buchnevich, or Greg McKegg for Jesper Fast, your team gets worse.
    But this isn't what should happen. You trade Hagelin at 27 and due a new contract because you have Fast and Lindberg on ELC's. The return for depth guy doesn't fill his spot. The farm fills the spot and the return helps fill the farm.

    Quote Originally Posted by Future View Post
    We just saw this between 2014 and 15, when they never adequately replaced Richards, Pouliot, Dorsett or Stralman. So I wouldn't assume that they can just clap their hands and replace, say, Lias, Lemieux, Buch and Hajek with vets or ELCs and not see a dip.
    They struggled to fill those spots because of the lack of 1st and 2nd round picks around that time.

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Long live the King View Post
    But this isn't what should happen. You trade Hagelin at 27 and due a new contract because you have Fast and Lindberg on ELC's. The return for depth guy doesn't fill his spot. The farm fills the spot and the return helps fill the farm.



    They struggled to fill those spots because of the lack of 1st and 2nd round picks around that time.
    Ok. That's why it's not my idea...but the assumption that a player in the farm is immediately ready to be as effective as the player he is replacing is a poor one, because that's rarely true, especially for guys in depth roles who do not have the talent to compensate for mental mistakes. I also don't think they struggled to replace Hagelin, which is why I specifically didn't mention him.

    Doesn't matter why. They did, and its illustrative of how you can never just assume that you're going to be able to fill those spots with cheaper options.

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Future View Post
    The other teams won't make those trades....
    Well of course not


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    Quote Originally Posted by Future View Post
    Ok. That's why it's not my idea...but the assumption that a player in the farm is immediately ready to be as effective as the player he is replacing is a poor one, because that's rarely true, especially for guys in depth roles who do not have the talent to compensate for mental mistakes. I also don't think they struggled to replace Hagelin, which is why I specifically didn't mention him.

    Doesn't matter why. They did, and its illustrative of how you can never just assume that you're going to be able to fill those spots with cheaper options.
    Ok, guys you mentioned...

    Pouliot was here one year, scored 36 points, Signed in EDM for $4M. He left and they signed Hayes who scored 45 on ELC. Replaced just fine.

    Dorsett played 51 games in 13/14, signed with VAN for $2.65M. They signed Glass for $1.45M who played 66 games in 14/15. Replaced just fine.

    Stralman they chose not to sign because they signed Boyle instead. Boyle didn't work out but that had nothing to do with the cap, they both signed for $4.5M.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Long live the King View Post
    Ok, guys you mentioned...

    Pouliot was here one year, scored 36 points, Signed in EDM for $4M. He left and they signed Hayes who scored 45 on ELC. Replaced just fine.

    Dorsett played 51 games in 13/14, signed with VAN for $2.65M. They signed Glass for $1.45M who played 66 games in 14/15. Replaced just fine.

    Stralman they chose not to sign because they signed Boyle instead. Boyle didn't work out but that had nothing to do with the cap, they both signed for $4.5M.
    Ok, so they didn't replace Richards or Stralman, and Glass was a downgrade from Dorsett (who was traded for cap reasons, IIRC). So they downgraded 3 positions (4 if you count Hayes as a C...).

    But I'm only referencing that team just as an illustration of what happens when you downgrade talent in your depth spots. The why, for them specifically, is irrelevant to my point, which is that it's a lot easier to say "just swap out guys when you don't want to pay them" than it is to actually do.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Puck Head View Post
    Well of course not


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    Lol. So my point is that, if you look at that group, there aren't really and of those 1-1 trades to be made, like Phil was mentioning. Yes, I would trade Howden for a bunch of those guys, but that's not practical.

  11. #51
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    We sign star players and people are complaining about maybe not being able to replace the Dorsett's and Stralman's 4 years from now?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc View Post
    We sign star players and people are complaining about maybe not being able to replace the Dorsett's and Stralman's 4 years from now?
    Yea, some forget we found Stralman on the scrap heap. He was about to be out of the league.

    There are always players to be had, somewhere, on the cheap.

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    Yea, some forget we found Stralman on the scrap heap. He was about to be out of the league.

    There are always players to be had, somewhere, on the cheap.
    And those guys are always open to joining a winning team.


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  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc View Post
    We sign star players and people are complaining about maybe not being able to replace the Dorsett's and Stralman's 4 years from now?
    Nobody's complaining about it lol. It's just exploring what might happen in a few years, and whether or not it will be similar to Toronto's issue.

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    You can't do an effective "grid" for three years from now. What you can do is talk about general trajectories, and those would indicate that there's a good chance that three years from now, we will be where Toronto is now, especially with the big contracts teams are giving players coming off entry level deals.

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sod16 View Post
    You can't do an effective "grid" for three years from now. What you can do is talk about general trajectories, and those would indicate that there's a good chance that three years from now, we will be where Toronto is now, especially with the big contracts teams are giving players coming off entry level deals.
    Wrong the same way you can talk about talent trajectories is the same way you could talk about potential salary trajectories. So you can do an effective grid.

    Winding up like Toronto is one of about 27 potential scenarios that could possibly play out over the course of three years.

    I could just as easily say there's not a good chance that we wind up like Toronto. But I posted a lineup that says we won't, right up there for debate... and you won't post a lineup that says we will...and have it challenged.

    This whole thread went by and there's no solid proof at all that there's a cap issue.

    And frankly, if Toronto was a little bit smarter with spending on defense, they might have a cup as they worried about dismantling their team.

    and at the end of the day, every team that's good and drafts while we'll have this problem. Toronto, Tampa, it's the price of being good at developing and good at winning in a cap league.

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    Exactly.

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    Wrong the same way you can talk about talent trajectories is the same way you could talk about potential salary trajectories. So you can do an effective grid.

    Winding up like Toronto is one of about 27 potential scenarios that could possibly play out over the course of three years.

    I could just as easily say there's not a good chance that we wind up like Toronto. But I posted a lineup that says we won't, right up there for debate... and you won't post a lineup that says we will...and have it challenged.

    This whole thread went by and there's no solid proof at all that there's a cap issue.

    And frankly, if Toronto was a little bit smarter with spending on defense, they might have a cup as they worried about dismantling their team.

    and at the end of the day, every team that's good and drafts while we'll have this problem. Toronto, Tampa, it's the price of being good at developing and good at winning in a cap league.
    There are “cap issues” if you expect to keep everyone. But that doesn’t happen. Either underperforming kids move on, or they step up and replace underperforming veterans.
    Lias Andersson for #AJT2019

  19. #59
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    "Everyone says you should be a good loser. If youíre a good loser, youíre a loser."
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  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    So, more of what we already knew?

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