(1C) Dallas Stars vs. (3C) Colorado Avalanche
REGULAR SEASON STANDINGS:
Stars: 52-21-9, 113 points; defeated Vegas Golden Knights 4-3 in the first round
Avalanche: 50-25-7, 107 points; defeated Winnipeg Jets 4-1 in the first round
SEASON SERIES:
DAL: 1-2-1, COL: 3-1-0
GAME BREAKERS:
Stars: Wyatt Johnston continues to build off an impressive second season in the NHL (65 points; 32 goals, 33 assists in 82 games). The forward plays like a veteran and comes up in big moments, including the overtime goal in a 3-2 win in Game 3 against the Golden Knights and the opening goal in Game 7. Johnston led the Stars through the first round with seven points (four goals, three assists) in seven games.
Avalanche: You have to go with Nathan MacKinnon again. Though other players scored more goals in the first round, MacKinnon is still the one who opponents want and need to shut down the most. He had nine points (two goals, seven assists) against the Jets, tied for the Avalanche lead with linemate Mikko Rantanen and defenseman Cale Makar, each of whom also had two goals and seven assists.
GOALTENDING:
Stars: Jake Oettinger was solid in a tight first-round series, going 4-3 with a 1.95 goals-against average and .925 save percentage. The Stars went 16-4 in their final 20 regular-season games, when Oettinger was 13-3-0 with a 2.26 GAA, .913 save percentage and two shutouts in 16 starts. He returned to form as the regular season ended and he's carried that over to the postseason.
Avalanche: Alexandar Georgiev had a forgettable start to the playoffs, but it's how you finish, right? He rebounded from a 7-6 loss in Game 1 to win his next four, is 4-1 with a 3.03 GAA and .900 save percentage and didn't allow more than three goals in a game after the opener. Backup Justus Annunen is healthy again after missing the first two games with an illness.
X FACTORS:
Stars: Logan Stankoven was held to two assists in the first round but had a crucial game-tying assist in the first period of Game 5, 1:02 after Vegas took a 1-0 lead. The 21-year-old could be a key secondary scorer against the Avalanche whether he plays center or wing. Stankoven ranked second among NHL rookies who played at least 12 regular-season games with 0.58 points per game (14 in 24 games), behind Blackhawks forward Connor Bedard (0.90), and had two points (one goal, one assist) and four shots on goal in two games against Colorado.
Avalanche: Artturi Lehkonen scored in all five games against the Jets and ranks second on Colorado in goals behind Valeri Nichushkin (seven). He's also tied with Mittelstadt for the fourth-most even-strength points (six) in the playoffs and is second on the Avalanche behind Rantanen (seven). Lehkonen is consistently a solid playoff performer; he had six points (three goals, three assists) in seven games last postseason and 14 points (eight goals, six assists) in 20 games when the Avalanche won the Stanley Cup in 2022. He's a big part of the top power-play unit with high-scoring skaters MacKinnon, Rantanen, Nichushkin and Makar.
WILL WIN IF:
Stars: They remain stingy on defense. Outside of Game 1, when the Golden Knights scored four goals, the Stars held them to three or fewer in the next six games, not easy to do against the defending Stanley Cup champions. They're allowing 2.29 goals per game (fifth in the playoffs) and will need that same type of defense against the Avalanche, who lead the postseason with 5.60 goals per game.
Avalanche: They keep the balanced scoring going. Colorado got contributions across the board and not just from their top line of Nichushkin, MacKinnon and Rantanen. Six players have at least six points. You need depth scoring at this time of year, and it paid off for the Avalanche in the first round. It's something they'll need to continue if they're going to keep advancing.
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