Long live the King Posted January 13, 2020 Posted January 13, 2020 Lot of talk about who to resign and who not to resign in about 4 different threads. In my mid they are all related. Here's my take. We know the Rangers love big UFA's. Sign Taylor Hall. After the last few drafts, they have to gamble on their D picks. Buyout Staal and Smith. Trade Buch for a youngish bottom six guy and a pick to free up some space. Trade Skjei for a cheaper forward. The key to this whole thing. Convince ADA and Strome to take matching $4.5x2 deals. What does that look like? (Hopefully the link works) https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1572877 Now, I didn't put a lot of time into the trades, So imagine a Virtanen type player for Skjei, and Gambrell was JAG with a pick for Buch. Before you say, "You can't have $13.8 million in dead cap Space!!!!", you can. I would take that roster in a heart beat for one year $13.8 in dead space. After one year of carrying that load, it drops by $9.5 million. Add in $8.5 from Hank and you've got $18 million to resign Chytil, Shesty, Howden, Rykov, Lindgren, and Hajek. Plenty of $$$ to play with. Going forward, you keep who you like among Rykov, Lindgren, and Hajek, while replacing with Miller, Lundkvist, and Robertson. Plus you have Keene, Reunanen, and Jones who may push for spots along with any future draft picks. This gives you two season before you have to make big decisions. The summer of 2022, you have Zib, Strome, Kakko, ADA, and Fox all to sign. How much has Kakko progressed? Is Chytil now ready to take over for Strome? Do we still need both Fox and ADA?
BrooksBurner Posted January 13, 2020 Posted January 13, 2020 I'd be fine with all of that except Taylor Hall. The summer of 2022 would be nothing but trouble looking at Zibanejad, Kakko, Fox, DeAngelo, Strome needing new deals. On top of that, there's a bunch of unknown money unaccounted for in the long term outlook with RFAs that would probably get re-signed in 2021 (Chytil, Howden, Lindgren, Rykov, Hajek, Shesterkin). Ideally, the Rangers should be saving the cash from signing Hall to sign a couple of their younger RFAs to long term, cost efficient deals if possible. Think 5-7 year deals for Chytil, Shesterkin, Fox, etc.
Keirik Posted January 13, 2020 Posted January 13, 2020 Approach both Strome and ADA during the all star break and offer them 3 year deals. Strome 3x5 and ADA 3x4.5 and see what happens. At least try and get that out of the way or give you an idea where they stand before any trade deadline.
Ozzy Posted January 13, 2020 Posted January 13, 2020 Lot of talk about who to resign and who not to resign in about 4 different threads. In my mid they are all related. Here's my take. We know the Rangers love big UFA's. Sign Taylor Hall. After the last few drafts, they have to gamble on their D picks. Buyout Staal and Smith. Trade Buch for a youngish bottom six guy and a pick to free up some space. Trade Skjei for a cheaper forward. The key to this whole thing. Convince ADA and Strome to take matching $4.5x2 deals. What does that look like? (Hopefully the link works) https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1572877 Now, I didn't put a lot of time into the trades, So imagine a Virtanen type player for Skjei, and Gambrell was JAG with a pick for Buch. Before you say, "You can't have $13.8 million in dead cap Space!!!!", you can. I would take that roster in a heart beat for one year $13.8 in dead space. After one year of carrying that load, it drops by $9.5 million. Add in $8.5 from Hank and you've got $18 million to resign Chytil, Shesty, Howden, Rykov, Lindgren, and Hajek. Plenty of $$$ to play with. Going forward, you keep who you like among Rykov, Lindgren, and Hajek, while replacing with Miller, Lundkvist, and Robertson. Plus you have Keene, Reunanen, and Jones who may push for spots along with any future draft picks. This gives you two season before you have to make big decisions. The summer of 2022, you have Zib, Strome, Kakko, ADA, and Fox all to sign. How much has Kakko progressed? Is Chytil now ready to take over for Strome? Do we still need both Fox and ADA? You put some time into this one, King! I see where you're coming from but there's a reason I disagree on some of these. 1. We can do better than a Taylor Hall. I'd wait for a better free agent than that. If we unload the right players over the next 2 seasons we'd have enough cap space to get a guy like McDavid! ;) 2. No more buyouts...all it does is make dead cap space, and we need to get out from under that going forward. 3. Keep Buch..he's a kid and he doesn't cost much. He'll develop over time and be a solid player. He just has to grow up, that's all. 4. Skjei is most likely going to end up in Seattle, but He's young and learning as well. He has the tools, we just have get him to use them. 5. ADA is not taking a friendly deal. He's already done that, and this time I think he's breaking the bank. I don't think Strome will either, but the jury is still out on him. Just my opinion, man.
BrooksBurner Posted January 13, 2020 Posted January 13, 2020 You put some time into this one, King! I see where you're coming from but there's a reason I disagree on some of these. 1. We can do better than a Taylor Hall. I'd wait for a better free agent than that. If we unload the right players over the next 2 seasons we'd have enough cap space to get a guy like McDavid! ;) 2. No more buyouts...all it does is make dead cap space, and we need to get out from under that going forward. 3. Keep Buch..he's a kid and he doesn't cost much. He'll develop over time and be a solid player. He just has to grow up, that's all. 4. Skjei is most likely going to end up in Seattle, but He's young and learning as well. He has the tools, we just have get him to use them. 5. ADA is not taking a friendly deal. He's already done that, and this time I think he's breaking the bank. I don't think Strome will either, but the jury is still out on him. Just my opinion, man. Totally agreed, and not only has he earned that right, but he deserves to be paid. I think he has progressed more than any other player on this team. I don't see him taking less than $6M per on a longer term deal, and if it's not a long term deal then I would suspect it'd go to arbitration which is not ideal for either side IMO. 5 years 30-32 million sounds fair. I believe that buys 2 UFA years and makes him a UFA at 29.
Long live the King Posted January 13, 2020 Author Posted January 13, 2020 I'd be fine with all of that except Taylor Hall. The summer of 2022 would be nothing but trouble looking at Zibanejad, Kakko, Fox, DeAngelo, Strome needing new deals. On top of that, there's a bunch of unknown money unaccounted for in the long term outlook with RFAs that would probably get re-signed in 2021 (Chytil, Howden, Lindgren, Rykov, Hajek, Shesterkin). Ideally, the Rangers should be saving the cash from signing Hall to sign a couple of their younger RFAs to long term, cost efficient deals if possible. Think 5-7 year deals for Chytil, Shesterkin, Fox, etc. You wouldn't resign Strome in 2022. Chytil would take over as #2C, and Strome's money is rolled into Zib Extension. Of Chytil, Howden, Lindgren, Rykov, Hajek, and Shesterkin none of them have done anything to warrant high AAV's. Shesty will likely be the most expensive and in the 4's.
Long live the King Posted January 13, 2020 Author Posted January 13, 2020 Totally agreed, and not only has he earned that right, but he deserves to be paid. I think he has progressed more than any other player on this team. I don't see him taking less than $6M per on a longer term deal, and if it's not a long term deal then I would suspect it'd go to arbitration which is not ideal for either side IMO. 5 years 30-32 million sounds fair. I believe that buys 2 UFA years and makes him a UFA at 29. I disagree. He really found his game here after multiple trades and character questions. By all account everyone loves him in the locker room and you can see it on their faces when he and Bread work their magic on the ice. I was on the fence in the OP, but I think if he was offered a 1 year deal for as much as possible next year, after everything else was put in place, he would take it, with the understanding that the proposed $18 million in cap space would result in a long term deal the following year. This is where JD works his magic.
Albatrosss Posted January 13, 2020 Posted January 13, 2020 Totally agreed, and not only has he earned that right, but he deserves to be paid. I think he has progressed more than any other player on this team. I don't see him taking less than $6M per on a longer term deal, and if it's not a long term deal then I would suspect it'd go to arbitration which is not ideal for either side IMO. 5 years 30-32 million sounds fair. I believe that buys 2 UFA years and makes him a UFA at 29. i'd never agree to that if im ADA. if you are going to buy his UFA years, you better pay up. he's the kind of an offensive d-man that could command 9-10M. if i'm ADA, i'd take $6X3 and then cash in as a UFA
josh Posted January 13, 2020 Posted January 13, 2020 Holes: ____1____ - Zibanejad - Buchnevich Panarin - _____2_____ - Kakko ___3____ - Chytil - Kravtsov Lemieux - Howden - ___4____ Smith Skjei - Trouba Hajek - DeAngelo Lindgren - Fox Staal Lundvist Shesterkin Cap Hit: ~$74 with DeAngelo + Lemieux = 7 - 8m Potentially out: Strome, Kreider, Fast, Georgiev McKegg, Haley Obviously, some of these guys can move around a bit in the lineup (Howden, Lemieux, Chytil), but you are looking at 1 top 6 Forward, Minimum ($5m) 2 middle 6 forwards ($5m total) 1 4th liner ($1m) and that's probably 1-2m over the cap ceiling. With this, I'd anticipate 1 re-signing between Strome, Kreider and Fast 1 "change of scenery" versatile player in his mid-20s (Jost RFA, S Bennett 1x2.55, Kerfoot 3x3.5) 1 young change of scenery prospect (Tolvanen 3y remaining, Puljujarvi RFA, Vesalainen 3y) 1 Affordable Depth/Role Player (Forsbacka Karlsson RFA, Melker Karlsson UFA, ...someone physical) If they only target 1 change of scenery player, I'd expect them to add another young prospect for the AHL (Heponiemi, Kaut) as well as a roster player at the 2020 deadline, or offseason (Kapanen, Johnsson, Tyler Johnson, Haula, Sheary)
josh Posted January 13, 2020 Posted January 13, 2020 Totally agreed, and not only has he earned that right, but he deserves to be paid. I think he has progressed more than any other player on this team. I don't see him taking less than $6M per on a longer term deal, and if it's not a long term deal then I would suspect it'd go to arbitration which is not ideal for either side IMO. 5 years 30-32 million sounds fair. I believe that buys 2 UFA years and makes him a UFA at 29. He'd get less at arbitration, which could be big for the Rangers to be able to retain another guy for next season.
BrooksBurner Posted January 13, 2020 Posted January 13, 2020 i'd never agree to that if im ADA. if you are going to buy his UFA years, you better pay up. he's the kind of an offensive d-man that could command 9-10M. if i'm ADA, i'd take $6X3 and then cash in as a UFA Why would the Rangers do 6Mx3? That doesn't buy any UFA years. I think they would just settle for arbitration at that point, and then ADA is back in a spot where he needs to stay healthy and produce knowing he still has 2 more RFA years after next year. The middle is 4 years x 6M. One UFA year.
BrooksBurner Posted January 13, 2020 Posted January 13, 2020 He'd get less at arbitration, which could be big for the Rangers to be able to retain another guy for next season. Right. He might get 4-5 in arbitration. Another season like this year and then I think you're probably looking at that 8-9M range for a consistent 65-70 point defenseman. That's a big price to pay for pushing long term out another year.
Albatrosss Posted January 13, 2020 Posted January 13, 2020 Why would the Rangers do 6Mx3? That doesn't buy any UFA years. I think they would just settle for arbitration at that point, and then ADA is back in a spot where he needs to stay healthy and produce knowing he still has 2 more RFA years after next year. The middle is 4 years x 6M. One UFA year. because if he hits 60-70 pnts this season, he's going to command at least that. Arbitration will only give him 1 year, right? if so, isn't he getting to UFA sooner?
Ozzy Posted January 13, 2020 Posted January 13, 2020 Here's the scoop on Arbitration: http://www.thehockeyblawg.com/single-post/2017/07/18/A-Guide-to-NHL-Salary-Arbitration
BrooksBurner Posted January 13, 2020 Posted January 13, 2020 because if he hits 60-70 pnts this season, he's going to command at least that. Arbitration will only give him 1 year, right? if so, isn't he getting to UFA sooner? AFAIK no. A player can't be a UFA before 27. Arbitration helps them get paid more fairly, but doesn't speed up the UFA clock.
Phil Posted January 13, 2020 Posted January 13, 2020 Players can reach UFA before 27. It's just not common.
Sod16 Posted January 13, 2020 Posted January 13, 2020 There is no room for a big UFA signing with the Zib contract due. As things stand now, we will have to expose more in the way of quality defensemen than forwards in the draft, so we should be looking at a trade of Skjei or ADA for a decent quality forward. Buy out of Staal and/or Smith will be necessary to get over the one year Hank Hump.
Long live the King Posted January 13, 2020 Author Posted January 13, 2020 There is no room for a big UFA signing with the Zib contract due. As things stand now, we will have to expose more in the way of quality defensemen than forwards in the draft, so we should be looking at a trade of Skjei or ADA for a decent quality forward. Buy out of Staal and/or Smith will be necessary to get over the one year Hank Hump. In my fantasy lineup above you'd protect: (Just realized I forgot to resign Lemieux above) Hall Panarin Zib Strome Chytil Lemieux And the Guy you get back in the Skjei Trade Trouba ADA One of Lindgren/Hajek The only exposed players are one of Lindgren/Hajek and Howden Rykov, Fox, Shesty, Kakko, Kravtsov are all exempt.
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