I think they have a legit shot of knocking off the Pirates, especially if Portland looks past them. They are coming off a HUGE game 7 road win and have had a pretty impressive season. Finished the season strong.
As for CT never going there, they usually play them once a season at home, then once on the road. The AHL bulks up the divisional games and regional rivals from other divisions, which doesn't leave many games for the other AHL teams