Vodka Drunkenski Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 I?m going to Disney on Saturday, this shit better not fuck that up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 So what are we looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 North Carolina and South Carolina are in the cross-hairs at this point. One other potential scenario is Florence making landfall and stalling shortly thereafter or it stalling just off the coast and absolutely dumping rain wherever it stalls which would be devastating. A further north track (into North Carolina or a brush of it over the Outer Banks) could set the stage for major flooding further north...toward our area if it then decided to slowly chug north or northeast thereafter. Lots of BAD scenarios and we appear to be losing the good scenario of this storm missing everyone. In other words, it's becoming more likely someone is going to take it on the chin. The map below shows the last few runs of the Euro models projections. Darkest bold cone is the most recent run, thinnest cone is from a few days ago. You see as the event draws nearer the cone is slowly shrinking in size (and taking aim on the Southeast Coast) at this point.... http://content.invisioncic.com/r250037/monthly_2018_09/cones120_ecmf_storm_atl_2018090900.png.449946b88f158b9ed3c0c95602f47abb.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 In comparison, the American long range models are focusing on a landfall a bit further north... http://content.invisioncic.com/r250037/monthly_2018_09/cones120_gefs_storm_atl_2018090900.png.ecfa2661c00dbeeb593ae93a44bcb914.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Long story short for our area, if a further north landfall takes place and/or it stalls near or off the coast of North Carolina or perhaps Virginia it would set up a long period of easterly winds that would result in extreme beach erosion, potential tidal flooding and a threat for days of rain even as far north as us. A further south track into a place like South Carolina could result in it getting trapped over the Southeast U.S. as high pressure builds down over our area. That would be a better result for us and horrible for them down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vodka Drunkenski Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Can I still go to Disney?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 The weather this summer has been absolutely trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Can I still go to Disney?? Next Saturday? Depends on the track. Florida not as big a threat as the Carolinas as of now. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 The weather this summer has been absolutely trash. Worst summer since I?ve moved down to PA in 2005. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 As of Monday morning, still looks like North Carolina is the primary target with South Carolina a close second. Lots of uncertainty still with regards to forward speed at landfall and whether it potentially slows or stalls near or after landfall. http://content.invisioncic.com/r250037/monthly_2018_09/cones120_ecmf_storm_atl_2018091000.png.13294e87d2c0047d726a8002bbe1e031.png Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flynn Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 This storm is going to be bad- not at all looking forward to the projected stall out with potential "feet" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vodka Drunkenski Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 What?s the timeframe of this storm? Beginning/ending guesstimate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 What?s the timeframe of this storm? Beginning/ending guesstimate? For where? Impact for NC could start Thursday and continue all weekend. Depends on whether it stalls near or after landfall. For us further north any residual rain would be a concern late weekend or early next week based on current projections. The big story is as it nears the coast of NC it may try to stall offshore or just inland in NC as strong upper level high pressure to its north and northeast tries to trap it over NC. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYR2711 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 I can’t believe that it went from a 1 this morning to a 4 in only a couple of hours, this thing has the potential to be very bad. They are saying it could hit land as a Cat 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 I can?t believe that it went from a 1 this morning to a 4 in only a couple of hours, this thing has the potential to be very bad. They are saying it could hit land as a Cat 5 The ocean waters are ridiculously warm and all it takes is 6-12 hours with proper conditions overhead for it to bomb. Intensity forecasting is way more fickle than landfall forecasting, although both aren?t easy. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 After a summer with historical rain totals in the mid-Atlantic, this poses a serious flood threat if it landfalls in eastern NC and then spreads it?s rain north through Virginia, Maryland, West Virginia and Pennsylvania. Coastal flooding and erosion would be awful too all the way to southern New England. ?We? those of us in the tristate area (and me in Pennsylvania) want a further south landfall. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonGecko Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 Worst summer since I’ve moved down to PA in 2005. Get use to it, only going to get worse - the planet is broken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vodka Drunkenski Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 For where? Impact for NC could start Thursday and continue all weekend. Depends on whether it stalls near or after landfall. For us further north any residual rain would be a concern late weekend or early next week based on current projections. The big story is as it nears the coast of NC it may try to stall offshore or just inland in NC as strong upper level high pressure to its north and northeast tries to trap it over NC. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Idk I just want to go on vacation lol. Flying out Saturday morning to Disney Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Idk I just want to go on vacation lol. Flying out Saturday morning to Disney Is it a direct flight? If Florence is spinning over the Carolinas and Virginia after landfall I'm expecting flights to be a mess. I guess they'd be rerouting alot of flights around the storm with many airports potentially closed in North Carolina and Virginia Friday into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vodka Drunkenski Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Is it a direct flight? If Florence is spinning over the Carolinas and Virginia after landfall I'm expecting flights to be a mess. I guess they'd be rerouting alot of flights around the storm with many airports potentially closed in North Carolina and Virginia Friday into Saturday. Newark to Orlando direct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Newark to Orlando direct That?s promising. Any transfers and you?d likely be fucked. Hopefully they?ll plan to just fly around the storm. What airline? Have they notified you about potential impending issues? Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vodka Drunkenski Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 That?s promising. Any transfers and you?d likely be fucked. Hopefully they?ll plan to just fly around the storm. What airline? Have they notified you about potential impending issues? Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk JetBlue, nothing yet from them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYR2711 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 After a summer with historical rain totals in the mid-Atlantic, this poses a serious flood threat if it landfalls in eastern NC and then spreads it’s rain north through Virginia, Maryland, West Virginia and Pennsylvania. Coastal flooding and erosion would be awful too all the way to southern New England. “We” those of us in the tristate area (and me in Pennsylvania) want a further south landfall. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk My uncle lives directly across the street from the beach in Long Beach, and we went there one day twords the end of the summer and the beach was closed because they are trying to replenish the sand on the beaches. They are pumping sand up from the ocean because of all of the erosion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 My uncle lives directly across the street from the beach in Long Beach, and we went there one day twords the end of the summer and the beach was closed because they are trying to replenish the sand on the beaches. They are pumping sand up from the ocean because of all of the erosion. Losing battle. Mother Nature wins in the end. Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonGecko Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 Mother Nature wins in the end. always, until there's nothing left even mother nature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now