I think you and Dom and all the other people who want to reduce human desire and competition to an equation are grasping for control of something that is not predictable or quantifiable. A Playoff series like this is more like a prize fight than coming up with the magic determinative sum of analytic parts.
These teams are super close and this series won't be about number of zone entries or shot share or whatever analytic fuck-all. It's going to be about which group of men want it more, about who can take a punch and get back up, who can dig out that last ounce of energy when both teams are exhausted in a 2nd or 3rd overtime. Talent, skill, strategy, technique, and past performance will all be in play, but the outcome will be determined by the ability to seize the moment, endurance, resilience, heart.
Look at Boston, who looked up mid-series having completely lost their game. None of the regular season analytics would tell you shit about why that would happen, because it didn't happen until the heat and pressure conditions of a Playoff series.
Seems like all of the forecasts revolve on pretty small differences. I'm tired of reading them. Let the fight begin.