Ranger Lothbrok

Someone tell me we have a shot of winning tonight. We win a game, I get my hopes up, I'm in a good mood for exactly 24 hours, and then by the next game day the well-earned eternal pessimism sets in. 

Yet again, the Athletic's model is predicting a Carolina win. Yet again, we are underdogs according to the odds. Even after Game 1, everyone at the Athletic said "yeah we expected this, doesn't change anything. Canes in 6 or 7."

I think we haven't seen Carolina's best, but they also haven't seen our best. Igor was good, but not great. We didn't exactly win in spite of him, but we didn't win BECAUSE of him. If he steals one game this series, and he almost certainly will, we're already halfway to the 4 wins we need. Also, if it wasn't for the late Carolina penalty, they would've had literally 3 times the powerplays we did, and we still won. Both teams have more to give. 

When the Canes get going, they're scary and frustrating. Possession and forecheck monsters that have near-miraculous keep-ins on our clear attempts. That sustained pressure game in and game out WILL break our D at some point. 

I will say, however, that the center depth is refreshing and is something to behold. Not sure where this Goodrow has been for the past few years, but my God has he been great. The Alex Wennberg add was pretty inspired. The Kakko-Wennberg-Cuylle line has yet to give up an even strength goal (the one they surrendered last night was 6 on 5). Wennberg didn't make the headlines the way Guentzel did, but this team is much better with him at 3C instead of Brodzinski. 

I thought Trocheck was gonna be a "meh" pseudo-upgrade over Strome. Adding more grit and faceoff wins but sacrificing Panarin's chemistry with Strome's offense. Boy was I wrong. And if Mika keeps playing like this the entire postseason, well, good luck. That's not even our best line.

Our best, most dynamic, game-breaking forward isn't even top 5 in our playoff scoring so far. That's both concerning and beautiful. It tells me we can win when Panarin gets shut down, and that there's depth scoring up and down the lineup. He hasn't been bad, per se, but if he gets going like he did regular season, watch out. Hopefully another GWG does something for his confidence, but the effort is still clearly there. 

Love how much confidence Laf is playing with, and I love the physicality from him too. First one in on any post-whistle shenanigans. 

Really though, again, this comes down to the center depth. I'm not used to having that luxury. How many years have we been screaming about faceoffs? How many rosters have we seen where it's one guy up top and a who's who of randos the rest of the lineup? This team is scary deep right now, and one of our most skilled forwards who's arguably the 2C isn't even playing. 

I actually thought he played a pretty good game. There was one play in particular that wasn't anything super impressive, but while we were protecting the lead he skated out of our zone, gained the red line, and got it deep while absolutely being hounded by a Canes player. What I said to my family was "if that player wasn't Rempe's size, they'd have gotten stripped of the puck and it would've been back in our end." 

He's nothing flashy or impressive, but the team vibes are good and he's also not screwing up left and right. Not sure how you justify taking him out. Fourth line also had some real good shifts. 

5 minutes ago, siddious said:

Boys… 5 wins in a row. I’m not kidding.

 

Was waiting for the Shoresy GIF. 

Just now, Dem said:

Need to get the forecheck going n stop playing the rest of the game in our zone

Not gonna happen unfortunately. Turtling is this team's MO. 

If we get another one quick, it's a real tall order to get 3 against Igor and this D. What I would very much like to avoid, however, is a 20 minute PK, which is what I feel is probably gonna happen. Canes were doing what they do best at the end there. Constant possession, pressure and forechecking with near-miraculous keep-ins on clearing attempts. 20 minutes of that is asking for trouble. 

If I'm Laviolette, I'm benching the next guy that passes on a point blank shot. Keenan had the balls to bench Leetch in 94. 

Zibanejad....I know you gave us two but....shoot....the effing....puck. Could've been 4-1.

I synced up the radio broadcast to the TV broadcast and it's the greatest thing ever. Sam Rosen and Dave Maloney. Dave is such an unapologetic homer it's fantastic. The timing is so in sync that the ref's lips were moving in time with the penalty announcement. I will not watch another playoff game any other way. 

Athletic's model has it as 66% Canes, 34% us. I know they're the analytics darlings of the league, I know they added Guentzel, I know they got a chip on their shoulder and something to prove, but like....really? We won the President's Trophy. We won the regular season series against them. The goaltending matchup, on paper at least, is heavily lopsided. 

Many people are picking this to go to 7 games. That would scream 51% to 49% to me, if anything.

Edit: also, not for nothing, but weren't they heavy favorites in 2022 as well before they got #Igor'd?

My head says Canes, but that's largely because that's what I've been hearing basically since October when every pundit on Earth was picking them to win the Cup. Those same pundits had Vancouver as a lottery team and us as a bubble team behind the Devils in the Metro, so who knows. 

They're analytics darlings. Corsi Canes and all that. They have a chip on their shoulders from two years ago. The top end talent they were lacking in 2022 has been fixed. 

My feeling is this: Igor is going to have to outright steal 2 if we're gonna win, which he's capable of doing. This is probably going 7. 

The good news is that we'll have had a week to shake off bruises without getting rusty. That's huge (that whole stat of "no team has ever gone to 7 games in Rounds 1 and 2 and won in the conference finals" that doomed us preemptively in 2012). We're over that hump, should be full pedal to the metal rest of the way. And you have to like the locker room rhetoric. Total tunnel vision, they have their eyes on the prize. 

No shot this resolves in our favor in less than 7 though. Canes could sweep or do it in 5. I doubt we can. The shifts off and seemingly lazy mistakes could have easily stretched the Caps series to 6 or 7, despite people making it sound like we dominated. Bear in mind we were only up by 1 in Game 4 when Igor had to stop a point-blank chance where the Caps player had an egregious amount of time and space to keep it tied. Everyone was caught looking. Do that against Carolina and it WILL be in the net. 

It's winnable, but nowhere near easily winnable. The eternal pessimist in me says Canes in 6. 

I'm sure somebody said this already, but in case they didn't, here's the #StatoftheSeries courtesy of our friends at Elias Sports Bureau: Matt Rempe outscored Alex Ovechkin. 

Kinda thought we were gonna give up at least at least one. But hey, all the people saying "first round exit" (myself included) have been silenced. 

I can't with this officiating. 

Rempe has been following orders not to engage. You have to imagine Laviolette greenlights him to take on Wilson as long as he avoids the instigator. 

Very concerned that the GDT title doesn't have teeth anywhere in it. Kind of seems like futzing with the mojo. 

9 hours ago, Sharpshooter said:

Indeed. I want this Panarin for the rest of his contract, not just this year. I am hopeful, as he looks like he's completely bought in and the most focused I've seen him, even in his past great seasons here.

I agree with this. As if the 120 points and 49 goals wasn't statement enough, he took last playoffs really hard and placed a lot of the blame on himself. 

Honestly, assuming we make it past them, I'm almost happy this was the first round matchup. If Panarin's blood is boiling, then he's not in his own head. The chippiness seems to only have engaged him more. 

Happy with how that ended, but not happy with the 5 consecutive minutes of panic. 

He's had his ups and downs, but Gustafsson really has been overall a pleasant surprise. Can see why Laviolette wanted him. 

When was the last time MSG had a cult hero that reached Rempe levels of phenomenon? Jeremy Lin?

Were all 4 goals 5 on 5?

Also, there's no on-ice award ceremony for the Trophy right? 

Igor locking it down tonight. Love to see it. 

1 hour ago, LindG1000 said:

Statistically speaking,  and for emotional protection, it's the safe bet. You're not at all likely to win the cup. Not in a 32-team league. Not in a 26-team league. And not when there are six teams and all the talent is in Canada, Massachusetts, and the Upper Midwest, and you have no access to that talent because of territorial rights. I don't think it serves any of us to expect a Cup win simply because it is highly likely to end in disappointment.

 

At the same time, though - push to shove, isn't this the single best team we've put together in nearly a decade? Heck, scoreboard! We've won more games this season than in any other. A win tonight sets the franchise points record and solidifies that this is the best regular season team we've ever iced. We have the goalie. We have the defenders. We have the forwards. We have the depth. We have the size, the speed, and the skill. The conference is weaker than it's been in years, and we're king of the heap. 

 

What fun is there in being a fan if you can't let yourself get attached to hope when there's good reason to? 

Not to get all armchair psychologist about it, but I divorced myself from hope last year when we made a backup goalie look like Patrick Roy and were gutless pukes despite having made a run to the ECFs a year prior, and even in that run, once Tampa shook off the rust we weren't even competitive. 

That team is largely unchanged, except older. That's a positive for the young players, but obviously Kreider and Mika are slowing down. 

The only way I could cope with last year's catastrophic debacle was to convince myself that in the grand scheme of things, none of this matters. Like "if I lost my job tomorrow I wouldn't be thinking about NHL standings" kind of rhetoric. I think it was easier to be hopeful when the two biggest fans I knew, my dad and my uncle, were still alive. Now it's just me carrying the torch, perennially surrounded by Devils fans here in Central Jersey. 

1 hour ago, Flynn said:

I mean.. its hard to argue with 84 years of results and common sense... But after I read that I immediately pictured @Ranger Lothbrok standing in the mall on December 20th, telling every kid that just got off Santa's lap "you know kid, he's fake and there is no such thing as Santa" . 

That is eerily accurate. That is 100% what I would do. Definitely a "glass half empty" guy. 

I appreciate the good points made by Pete and fletch, and I get that there's two different lenses you can view each pro/con through. That's where the tiebreaker for me is simple history. Assume the worst, maybe you get pleasantly surprised.