Playoffs Rangers-Capitals — Round One General Series Thread

[RodrigueGabriel]

If you want an argument for why Ranger fans should feel pretty good about the upcoming series, put yourself in the therapeutic hands of Dan Rosen:  https://www.nhl.com/news/who-will-win-in-round-1-ny-rangers-or-washington

[BrooksBurner]

32 minutes ago, RodrigueGabriel said:

Did we (or anyone else) ever figure out the significant difference between the NYR ranking  in NST's and CSA's xGF%? Sorry if I missed this in earlier threads.

 

No. It's a subjective calculation though and there's going to be different models. What is odd is CSA is the outlier when it comes to the Rangers, when compared to many other sources, including other professional analytics companies. Not just NST.

[Dem]

2 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

No. It's a subjective calculation though and there's going to be different models. What is odd is CSA is the outlier when it comes to the Rangers, when compared to many other sources, including other professional analytics companies. Not just NST.

Fuck the models Brooks, we are going to fuck these guys up!

[RangersIn7]

1 hour ago, The Dude said:

You'd think it would result in penalties.  It doesn't seem to matter  when it's the Rangers and  the playoffs.  Retaliation penalties seem to be what refs like to call. So, maybe the plan should be to hit them first.  Set the pace.  Let them react. 

I’m saying in relation to the Caps “crossing the line” as you said.

If they do, they’re calling penalties. 

[BrooksBurner]

2 minutes ago, Dem said:

Fuck the models Brooks, we are going to fuck these guys up!

 

No, and yes. The Rangers landed the one team in the playoffs who suck more at 5v5 than they do. Combined with a major special teams edge, I'll be disappointed if they lose even 1 game.

[RangersLEETCH]

https://www.foreverblueshirts.com/rangers-coach-hears-matt-rempe-chants/amp/

[Dem]

1 hour ago, RodrigueGabriel said:

If you want an argument for why Ranger fans should feel pretty good about the upcoming series, put yourself in the therapeutic hands of Dan Rosen:  https://www.nhl.com/news/who-will-win-in-round-1-ny-rangers-or-washington

Is Dan Sam's retarded step brother? Not that I disagree w Dan but just asking for Ozzy

[RodrigueGabriel]

45 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

No. It's a subjective calculation though and there's going to be different models. What is odd is CSA is the outlier when it comes to the Rangers, when compared to many other sources, including other professional analytics companies. Not just NST.

Doesn't that give you any pause about crediting so much predictive value to expected goals? I would be very surprised if the Rangers were the only team with a different outcome. It's just the only one Vally talked about. It just seems like the hockey quant industry needs further evolution in the agreed methodology before they can declare it the definitive stat for team strength (as the guy in the ESPN article did). If that's the range we're talking about, it doesn't seem to even clear the bar for a rough approximation. But I understand that it could be super useful if it was precise and one could have faith in it.

[Sod16]

4 hours ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

No. It's a subjective calculation though and there's going to be different models. What is odd is CSA is the outlier when it comes to the Rangers, when compared to many other sources, including other professional analytics companies. Not just NST.

Rosen points out that the Rangers are ranked even higher on the PK than the PP.  With all the gumbling that some do about 93 and 20, the fact that they are perphaps the best PK combo in the league is just as important as their prowess on the PP.

[RangerDanger]

Was listening to Vince's podcast this morning where he also had a beat reporter for the Caps on. One thing she pointed out was that the Caps either win close games where they're grinding people down, or they get blown out. They have to rely on that style because they don't have team speed anymore. One of the biggest issues Rangers have this year is chances against off the rush, so hopefully they don't have that to worry about as much this round.

We know they're going to have to play physical against us, but if we keep our heads up and avoid playing their style, we should be able to draw some PP chances against them. Echoing what everyone else is saying, there's really no way we should struggle against them if we just play our game.

[RodrigueGabriel]

16 hours ago, Phil said:

Per Friedman, Caps want Ryan Leonard to play in the series. He hasn't made a decision whether or not to go back to school, but the team wants him going pro.

And ... Leonard is going back to BC to star in a revival of Los Tres Amigos and chase the national championship that got away. Hopefully Perreault had some dirt on him he was willing to use to keep him from jumping up. I think it says a lot about the relative depth of the two teams that there was enough room on the Caps roster for MacClellan to beg a college freshman (albeit a talented one) to come bolster their Playoff chances. 

Edited April 18, 2024 by RodrigueGabriel

[Sharpshooter]

Washington has been playing shutdown playoff hockey for about two months or so. One thing the Rangers really need to stop doing is giving up the first goal. Despite their success, that's been a major problem for what feels like one or two months of hockey. You give Washington the lead off the bat, and they're just going to start grinding and frustrating you, and the Rangers may have some serious issues countering that.

[Bieser]

I'd like to see Panarin get one early.  If he gets blanked in game one I'd rather those old thoughts not creep into everyone's head.  Not that the board blow up wouldn't be interesting. 

 

[RichieNextel305]

19 minutes ago, Bieser said:

I'd like to see Panarin get one early.  If he gets blanked in game one I'd rather those old thoughts not creep into everyone's head.  Not that the board blow up wouldn't be interesting. 

 

Sometimes that doesn’t even matter. I remember similar thoughts back in 2015 with Nash. He was worse in the playoffs than Bread but in 2014 he was brutal in the playoffs. He came in 2015 and had a monster year. And we wanted it to carry into the playoffs. He got a goal early against the Pens and we all were happy he got the monkey off his back.

 

Ended up not being much of a help regardless. Bread just needs to play his game, regardless of whether or not he pots one early.

[BrooksBurner]

10 hours ago, RodrigueGabriel said:

Doesn't that give you any pause about crediting so much predictive value to expected goals? I would be very surprised if the Rangers were the only team with a different outcome. It's just the only one Vally talked about. It just seems like the hockey quant industry needs further evolution in the agreed methodology before they can declare it the definitive stat for team strength (as the guy in the ESPN article did). If that's the range we're talking about, it doesn't seem to even clear the bar for a rough approximation. But I understand that it could be super useful if it was precise and one could have faith in it.

Despite the subjectivity, the track record of correlation between expected goals and playoff participants and Cup winners is very strong (as far as expected goals from transparent data sources). There’s other factors, but nothing as strongly as that of which I am aware.  Special teams dominance on both ends of the ice for example might show favoritism towards winning teams, but it hasn’t correlated with being a necessity. 5v5 play pretty much has until it shows out otherwise.

 

If there’s one source that deviates heavily from the others, I’d be leery of that source and how they are getting what they are getting. Might be bias or questionable methodology. It could also be they are innovative and ahead of the curve, but there’s nothing that suggests the other sources have been errant.

Edited April 18, 2024 by BrooksBurner

[Kick save and a beauty]

2 hours ago, RangerDanger said:

Was listening to Vince's podcast this morning where he also had a beat reporter for the Caps on. One thing she pointed out was that the Caps either win close games where they're grinding people down, or they get blown out. They have to rely on that style because they don't have team speed anymore. One of the biggest issues Rangers have this year is chances against off the rush, so hopefully they don't have that to worry about as much this round.

We know they're going to have to play physical against us, but if we keep our heads up and avoid playing their style, we should be able to draw some PP chances against them. Echoing what everyone else is saying, there's really no way we should struggle against them if we just play our game.

 

Bingo.  I know it is trite to say but the best defense against a team willing to dirty thing up is to make them afraid of taking penalties.

 

They will likely try and start the series off by playing the style we saw in their last two games.  Very very disciplined at the back and only allowing a small number of chances against.  That is the way they will start things off but if they get down in the series they will have no other choice but to risk the Rangers power play by sending Wilson out there to cause mayhem.

 

[Kick save and a beauty]

Tom Wilson is an effective player on the ice and so in any penalty scenario and if fighting is involved we need to have players of lesser on-ice skills going into the box from our side.

 

If Tom Wilson is allowed to smash Panarin's head into the ice again then we have already lost no matter how many minutes he is assessed for such an assault.  That means Trouba, Cuylle,  Rempe, Goodrow, and Schneider (amongst others) need to be ready to dive in no matter what.  I did not mention Lindgren because he always stands ready to do what is necessary for a team mate no matter who the opponent is or what the situation might be.

 

If anything Panarin is even more critical to the Rangers prospects this time around.

[Kick save and a beauty]

fuckin' matinee games

[LindG1000]

1 hour ago, Kick save and a beauty said:

Tom Wilson is an effective player on the ice and so in any penalty scenario and if fighting is involved we need to have players of lesser on-ice skills going into the box from our side.

 

If Tom Wilson is allowed to smash Panarin's head into the ice again then we have already lost no matter how many minutes he is assessed for such an assault.  That means Trouba, Cuylle,  Rempe, Goodrow, and Schneider (amongst others) need to be ready to dive in no matter what.  I did not mention Lindgren because he always stands ready to do what is necessary for a team mate no matter who the opponent is or what the situation might be.

 

If anything Panarin is even more critical to the Rangers prospects this time around.

 

I think the difference this time around is that four or five guys on the team would spear him and start wailing on his face like Donkey Kong if he tried.

 

You think Rempe won't immediately go for him? Cuylle would do it. Trouba would do it - he wasn't in the game where it happened. Ditto Lindgren. Goodrow would too - he wasn't there last time. 

 

We're a different team.

[Pete]

5 hours ago, RodrigueGabriel said:

And ... Leonard is going back to BC to star in a revival of Los Tres Amigos and chase the national championship that got away. Hopefully Perreault had some dirt on him he was willing to use to keep him from jumping up. I think it says a lot about the relative depth of the two teams that there was enough room on the Caps roster for MacClellan to beg a college freshman (albeit a talented one) to come bolster their Playoff chances. 

I don't think that was the motive...I don't think they have any illusions of a college freshman helped them beat the Rangers.

[LindG1000]

I'm a little confused by the Ryan Leonard talk. Wouldn't bringing him in burn a year of his ELC? Surely, this isn't the spot to do that.

[Pete]

1 minute ago, LindG1000 said:

I'm a little confused by the Ryan Leonard talk. Wouldn't bringing him in burn a year of his ELC? Surely, this isn't the spot to do that.

Lots of indications teams don't really care about that anymore. Lots of talk about that subject on 32 Thoughts recently. Yea you burn a year, but it makes the body of work to judge the next deal on much smaller, which benefits the team.

[BrooksBurner]

If Rempe is in the opening lineup and can do enough to get Wilson suckered into fighting, that would be a great exchange. For one, Wilson is one of the guys who can establish the tone of a game and be disruptive for the Caps. For two, any 4 on 4 situation is extremely favorable for the Rangers.

[Drew a Penalty]

8 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

If Rempe is in the opening lineup and can do enough to get Wilson suckered into fighting, that would be a great exchange. For one, Wilson is one of the guys who can establish the tone of a game and be disruptive for the Caps. For two, any 4 on 4 situation is extremely favorable for the Rangers.

I’d be just as content if he took McIlrath out of the play with a fight. As long as Sandin and Jensen are out, the Capitals are icing two AHL defensemen. Shorten their bench and force their defensemen to take more shifts.

[Karan]

I personally don't think Wilson is going to be as big of a physical factor as many seem concerned about. Since the infamous Panarin incident, Wilson has missed time for a slew of upper and lower body injuries and I don't think he's going to risk getting fucked up and missing games.