Playoffs Rangers-Capitals — Round One General Series Thread

[RangersIn7]

Just now, RichieNextel305 said:

That’s looking at it from one angle, and that’s at the Caps. Look at it from theirs. Their one strength right now is arguably Lindgren. And he’s, at the very least, going to be matched by Shesterkin. The Rangers score more, defend better, have a better coach, have more depth, have better special teams.

 

Rarely do you see a series that can be a walk in the park. But if this one isn’t for the Rangers, even as good as Lindgren is playing right now, then we don’t deserve to have any expectations.

Even in more 1 sided series there are rarely easy games.

And the Caps do present some challenges.

 

Nevertheless, they should beat this team and not need many games to do it. 

[RichieNextel305]

2 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

Even in more 1 sided series there are rarely easy games.

And the Caps do present some challenges.

 

Nevertheless, they should beat this team and not need many games to do it. 

I’m not saying this *will* be a cakewalk. For sure, the Capitals can play a frustrating brand of hockey and pressure the Rangers and frustrate them through the neutral zone especially.

 

But the problems Washington presents are a pin prick compared to the ones we present to them. That’s all I meant, really.

Edited April 17, 2024 by RichieNextel305

[RangersIn7]

5 minutes ago, RichieNextel305 said:

I’m not saying this *will* be a cakewalk. For sure, the Capitals can play a frustrating brand of hockey and pressure the Rangers and frustrate them through the neutral zone especially.

 

But the problems Washington presents are a pin prick compared to the ones we present to them. That’s all I meant, really.

I 100% agree.

 

I wouldnt be running to play the Rangers or for that matter, any other team that finishes 1st in the league in a playoff series ever. 

[BrooksBurner]

9 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

That’s entirely possible.

I just don’t get too hung up on analytics.

They fill in a picture, they don’t paint one on their own.

 
My point I guess is that winning or losing a lot of games in gimmick OT or a shootout can be misleading.

 

Look At that Panthers team 2 years ago. They won 16 games in OT and SO.

Thats not sustainable in the playoffs when those rules go away.

 

That's all fair. I agree.

 

I generally use expected goals and high danger chances as a pretty reliable method to generally separate good from mediocre from bad. There's going to be buckets of teams and players in those groupings, and from there, you have to dig deeper.

 

 

[Pete]

19 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

I may be wrong about this, but if it’s anything like baseball, and their analytic stats and metrics, I believe that many sites as well as teams have their own proprietary way of calculating them.

Many similarities but some significant differences too.

 

Again… might be wrong.

You're right. Teams have their ways, and agencies do as well. For example, Naturalstatrick uses an algorithm based on certain criteria, and Clear Sight Analytics (which many NHL team use) has humans watching games and recording data based on certain criteria. I'd rather use human-generated data, but I'm not going to pay for it.

[Morphinity 2.0]

Just now, Pete said:

You're right. Teams have their ways, and agencies do as well. For example, Naturalstatrick uses an algorithm based on certain criteria, and Clear Sight Analytics (which many NHL team use) has humans watching games and recording data based on certain criteria. I'd rather use human-generated data, but I'm not going to pay for it.

And Clear Sight focuses mainly on scoring chances and actual quality of shots whereas something like Sportlogiq drills down on a lot of smaller stats like puck retrievals, zone entries, etc.. There's a lot of variety out there depending on philosophy of the company. Pretty much across the board I've heard that public models/data is garbage.

[Br4d]

50 minutes ago, RichieNextel305 said:

That’s looking at it from one angle, and that’s at the Caps. Look at it from theirs. Their one strength right now is arguably Lindgren. And he’s, at the very least, going to be matched by Shesterkin. The Rangers score more, defend better, have a better coach, have more depth, have better special teams.

 

Rarely do you see a series that can be a walk in the park. But if this one isn’t for the Rangers, even as good as Lindgren is playing right now, then we don’t deserve to have any expectations.

 

This series is very unlikely to be a walk in the park.  We split 2-2 with the Caps in the regular season and goals were 9-9 in 4 games.

 

If the Rangers show up and play hard we have a good chance in the series.  If we look past the Caps we're going to get beat.

[Pete]

56 minutes ago, Morphinity 2.0 said:

And Clear Sight focuses mainly on scoring chances and actual quality of shots whereas something like Sportlogiq drills down on a lot of smaller stats like puck retrievals, zone entries, etc.. There's a lot of variety out there depending on philosophy of the company. Pretty much across the board I've heard that public models/data is garbage.

 

Yea, have heard the same. I have a hard time trusting the public models, especially with such a subjective stat like xGF%. 

[Pete]

28 minutes ago, Br4d said:

 

This series is very unlikely to be a walk in the park.  We split 2-2 with the Caps in the regular season and goals were 9-9 in 4 games.

 

If the Rangers show up and play hard we have a good chance in the series.  If we look past the Caps we're going to get beat.

The first two times the teams met, Kakko was hurt and Bonino, Pitlick, and Wheeler were still on the team. The Rangers split 0-4 and 5-1.

The next 2 games were hard-fought defensive battles that the team also split, with Bonino and Loosechicken in the lineup.

Rangers added speed and Caps sold at the deadline. I'd call those games irrelevant at this point.

[Karan]

5 minutes ago, Pete said:

The first two times the teams met, Kakko was hurt and Bonino, Pitlick, and Wheeler were still on the team. The Rangers split 0-4 and 5-1.

The next 2 games were hard-fought defensive battles that the team also split, with Bonino and Loosechicken in the lineup.

Rangers added speed and Caps sold at the deadline. I'd call those games irrelevant at this point.

 

Also the second loss to the Capitals came at a time when the Rangers were in a mini slump and mired in mistakes/sloppy hockey. I'd like to believe that stretch is a thing of the past and the team has largely corrected the issues. And so the season series with the Caps, IMO is completely inconsequential going into this series. Even if the Rangers had gone 4-0 against them, I wouldn't put much stock into it as it's been more than 3 months since they last played each other. 

[RichieNextel305]

6 minutes ago, Pete said:

The first two times the teams met, Kakko was hurt and Bonino, Pitlick, and Wheeler were still on the team. The Rangers split 0-4 and 5-1.

The next 2 games were hard-fought defensive battles that the team also split, with Bonino and Loosechicken in the lineup.

Rangers added speed and Caps sold at the deadline. I'd call those games irrelevant at this point.

I’d have to agree.

 

I said it earlier and I’ll say it again: the biggest enemies we can have in this series are ourselves and Lindgren. We need to jump this team early and often. Lindgren can be a pain. But I like our odds against him much better than I like theirs against Igor.

[Karan]

9 minutes ago, Pete said:

The first two times the teams met, Kakko was hurt and Bonino, Pitlick, and Wheeler were still on the team. The Rangers split 0-4 and 5-1.

The next 2 games were hard-fought defensive battles that the team also split, with Bonino and Loosechicken in the lineup.

Rangers added speed and Caps sold at the deadline. I'd call those games irrelevant at this point.

 

And to add further to my last post, the Caps have done nothing to address the primary issue which they've been ailing from all season.

 

 

Can I get my lost points back now please?   

[Albatrosss]

1 hour ago, RichieNextel305 said:

That’s looking at it from one angle, and that’s at the Caps. Look at it from theirs. Their one strength right now is arguably Lindgren. And he’s, at the very least, going to be matched by Shesterkin. The Rangers score more, defend better, have a better coach, have more depth, have better special teams.

 

Rarely do you see a series that can be a walk in the park. But if this one isn’t for the Rangers, even as good as Lindgren is playing right now, then we don’t deserve to have any expectations.

this is all great but the game is played on the ice, not on paper.  I'm excited as hell about this team but keeping my expectations low.  

 

my biggest concern is physical play.  Hopefully the rangers dont buckle.  They're pretty soft

[Phil]

Per Friedman, Caps want Ryan Leonard to play in the series. He hasn't made a decision whether or not to go back to school, but the team wants him going pro.

[jamsim1967]

5 hours ago, BrooksBurner said:

If anyone who pumped the Rangers' tires all year and then voted 6 or 7 games against this shitty Caps team, I have a bone to pick with you for a lack of follow through in the art of conviction

Capitals are going to come out hitting, and the Rangers will need to hit back. If the Caps get a lead, expect them to sit back in their zone, counter and just try to frustrate the Rangers. Hitting, forcing their way to the net and getting some dirty goals will go a long way in frustrating the Caps, forcing them to open it up ... game over!

 

If they allow themselves to get pushed around, it will be a long series

[Br4d]

2 hours ago, Pete said:

The first two times the teams met, Kakko was hurt and Bonino, Pitlick, and Wheeler were still on the team. The Rangers split 0-4 and 5-1.

The next 2 games were hard-fought defensive battles that the team also split, with Bonino and Loosechicken in the lineup.

Rangers added speed and Caps sold at the deadline. I'd call those games irrelevant at this point.

 

Do you think the Caps are scared of facing the Rangers right now?

 

Just curious, because I'm betting the Rangers were who they wanted.

[Pete]

24 minutes ago, Br4d said:

 

Do you think the Caps are scared of facing the Rangers right now?

 

Just curious, because I'm betting the Rangers were who they wanted.

I don't think any team, or athlete, is "scared" to play another team. I think they all have their personal preferences based on who they do well against (Boyle said this on his podcast, he liked playing in Pitt, so he signed there), but generally I think all 16 teams are telling themselves if they play their game, they can win a 7 games series. And it's mostly true.

[The Dude]

Washington knows how to push the Rangers buttons. Wilson, Dowdy, Ovechkin and Oshie will be walking the line and hitting everyone in sight. Heck, they dressed Mcllrath in their last game (he owned Rempe in the A).. They can and will play ragged and go over the line. If the Rangers can play through that, it's a piece of cake. I think they can .

 

With that said, Zibanejad and Panarin really need to play with their heads up and eyes on the back of their heads, but also take it to them and act like they like it. Don't back down. Don't let old men Oshie and Ovie knock you down a peg. 

[RangersIn7]

11 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Washington knows how to push the Rangers buttons. Wilson, Dowdy, Ovechkin and Oshie will be walking the line and hitting everyone in sight. Heck, they dressed Mcllrath in their last game (he owned Rempe in the A).. They can and will play ragged and go over the line. If the Rangers can play through that, it's a piece of cake. I think they can .

 

With that said, Zibanejad and Panarin really need to play with their heads up and eyes on the back of their heads, but also take it to them and act like they like it. Don't back down. Don't let old men Oshie and Ovie knock you down a peg. 

Agree with this

 

Though that likely results in Washington taking penalties and if they do that, the Rangers will kill them.

Even matching minors hurts them. 

[Richter35]

Feeling a sweep coming . This is our time.

[The Dude]

1 hour ago, RangersIn7 said:

Agree with this

 

Though that likely results in Washington taking penalties and if they do that, the Rangers will kill them.

Even matching minors hurts them. 

You'd think it would result in penalties.  It doesn't seem to matter  when it's the Rangers and  the playoffs.  Retaliation penalties seem to be what refs like to call. So, maybe the plan should be to hit them first.  Set the pace.  Let them react. 

[Art20c]

First game Sunday at 3pm. Hate those noon games. 

[RodrigueGabriel]

8 hours ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

That's all fair. I agree.

 

I generally use expected goals and high danger chances as a pretty reliable method to generally separate good from mediocre from bad. There's going to be buckets of teams and players in those groupings, and from there, you have to dig deeper.

 

 

Did we (or anyone else) ever figure out the significant difference between the NYR ranking  in NST's and CSA's xGF%? Sorry if I missed this in earlier threads.

[Br4d]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

Per Friedman, Caps want Ryan Leonard to play in the series. He hasn't made a decision whether or not to go back to school, but the team wants him going pro.

 

Going back to BC for another shot at a championship.  That whole line is going to be together for season.  Looking forward to watching Perreault work with Smith and Leonard again.

[jamsim1967]

3 hours ago, The Dude said:

Washington knows how to push the Rangers buttons. Wilson, Dowdy, Ovechkin and Oshie will be walking the line and hitting everyone in sight. Heck, they dressed Mcllrath in their last game (he owned Rempe in the A).. They can and will play ragged and go over the line. If the Rangers can play through that, it's a piece of cake. I think they can .

 

With that said, Zibanejad and Panarin really need to play with their heads up and eyes on the back of their heads, but also take it to them and act like they like it. Don't back down. Don't let old men Oshie and Ovie knock you down a peg. 

Realistically, this is the only way the Capitals can win. The Rangers will be expecting it (or should be), need to play through it and move on. Nothing dirty, just hit back.