2022 World Cup Alternative Standings

[fletch]

Fans and players love goals and celebrate in pure joy.  Every goal is unique and sublime.  A game without a goal is a beautiful tragedy. 

Therefore, I have an alternative tournament point format.  For a 0-0 draw, each team is deducted a point in the standings.  Tiebreakers change as follows (with comments).

Tiebreakers:

1.       Total points – straightforward best analysis of performance over 3 games in group

2.       Most wins – necessary tiebreaker given the point deduction(s)

3.       Most ties – necessary tiebreaker given the point deduction(s)

4.       Goal difference – analysis of performance over 3 games in group

5.       Goals allowed – defensive-minded squads have already been punished by the 0-0 point deduction(s)

6.       Goals for – scoring is celebrated

7.       Head-to-head record (among 2,3,4 teams) – defer to FIFA as rewarding performance over all 3 games in group, rather than a single match day between 2 teams.  Arguments can be made to have this tiebreaker anywhere from 1-7.

8.       Fair play – FIFA has made additional tiebreakers to avoid random lots, which all sports leagues want to avoid.  I have reluctantly included Fair play as a (slightly) better option than random lots.  There is an inherent assumption that all referees are assigning cards at about the same frequency in all matches.   Given there is a lot of official discretion in just assigning a foul or giving a yellow card, there are some admitted biases.  But I agree we need at least one more tiebreaker before drawing lots.

9.       Drawing ball out of dish (like World Cup draw to assign teams).

10.   Reset tiebreakers to determine second team (if necessary).

11.   Draw ball of dish (for second team).

Next few posts will be standings after each round of games

[fletch]

GROUP A	GP	W	D	L	GD	P	* Pt deducted for 0-0
Netherlands	1	1	0	0	2	3
Ecuador	1	1	0	0	2	3
Senegal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
Qatar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
GROUP B	GP	W	D	L	GD	P
England	1	1	0	0	4	3
United States	1	0	1	0	0	1
Wales	1	0	1	0	0	1
Iran	1	0	0	1	-4	0
GROUP C	GP	W	D	L	GD	P
Saudi Arabia	1	1	0	0	1	3
Poland	1	0	1	0	0	0	*
Mexico	1	0	1	0	0	0	*
Argentina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
GROUP D	GP	W	D	L	GD	P
France	1	1	0	0	3	3
Denmark	1	0	1	0	0	0	*
Tunisia	1	0	1	0	0	0	*
Australia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
GROUP E	GP	W	D	L	GD	P
Spain	1	1	0	0	7	3
Japan	1	1	0	0	1	3
Germany	1	0	0	1	-1	0
Costa Rica	1	0	0	1	-7	0
GROUP F	GP	W	D	L	GD	P
Belgium	1	1	0	0	1	3
Croatia	1	0	1	0	0	0	*
Morocco	1	0	1	0	0	0	*
Canada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
GROUP G	GP	W	D	L	GD	P
Brazil	1	1	0	0	2	3
Switzerland	1	1	0	0	1	3
Cameroon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
Serbia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
GROUP H	GP	W	D	L	GD	P
Portugal	1	1	0	0	1	3
South Korea	1	0	1	0	0	0	*
Uruguay	1	0	1	0	0	0	*
Ghana	1	0	0	1	-1	0

[fletch]

Note that each team crafts tournament strategy, and alters strategy based on the results of each game.  Each team would have approached game 2 differently based on standings.  Each team will approach game 3 differently.  The final 16 qualifiers from the real world may be the best 16 teams, and may have found a way (result) to get into a top 2 group spot after the third game.

 

GROUP A	GP	W	D	L	GD	P	* Pt deducted for 0-0
Netherlands	2	1	1	0	2	4
Ecuador	2	1	1	0	2	4
Senegal	2	1	0	1	0	3
Qatar	2	0	0	2	-4	0
GROUP B	GP	W	D	L	GD	P
England	2	1	1	0	4	3	*
Iran	2	1	0	1	-2	3
United States	2	0	2	0	0	1	*
Wales	2	0	1	1	-2	1
GROUP C	GP	W	D	L	GD	P
Poland	2	1	1	0	2	3	*
Argentina	2	1	0	1	1	3
Saudi Arabia	2	1	0	1	-1	3
Mexico	2	0	1	1	-2	0	*
GROUP D	GP	W	D	L	GD	P
France	2	2	0	0	4	6
Australia	2	1	0	1	-2	3
Denmark	2	0	1	1	-1	0	*
Tunisia	2	0	1	1	-1	0	*
GROUP E	GP	W	D	L	GD	P
Spain	2	1	1	0	7	4
Japan	2	1	0	1	0	3
Costa Rica	2	1	0	1	-6	3
Germany	2	0	1	1	-1	1
GROUP F	GP	W	D	L	GD	P
Croatia	2	1	1	0	3	3	*
Morocco	2	1	1	0	2	3	*
Belgium	2	1	0	1	-1	3
Canada	2	0	0	2	-4	0
GROUP G	GP	W	D	L	GD	P
Brazil	2	2	0	0	3	6
Switzerland	2	1	0	1	0	3
Cameroon	2	0	1	1	-1	1
Serbia	2	0	1	1	-2	1
GROUP H	GP	W	D	L	GD	P
Portugal	2	2	0	0	3	6
Ghana	2	1	0	1	0	3
South Korea	2	0	1	1	-1	0	*
Uruguay	2	0	1	1	-2	0	*

[fletch]

Final Group Standings

GROUP A	GP	W	D	L	GD	GF	GA	P	* Pt deducted for 0-0
Netherlands	3	2	1	0	4	5	1	7
Senegal	3	2	0	1	1	5	4	6
Ecuador	3	1	1	1	1	4	3	4
Qatar	3	0	0	3	-6	1	7	0
GROUP B	GP	W	D	L	GD	GF	GA	P
England	3	2	1	0	7	9	2	6	*
United States	3	1	2	0	1	2	1	4	*
Iran	3	1	0	2	-3	4	7	3
Wales	3	0	1	2	-5	1	6	1
GROUP C	GP	W	D	L	GD	GF	GA	P
Argentina	3	2	0	1	3	5	2	6
Poland	3	1	1	1	0	2	2	3	* TB Goal Difference
Mexico	3	1	1	1	-1	2	3	3	*
Saudi Arabia	3	1	0	2	-2	3	5	3	Fourth Place from Draws
GROUP D	GP	W	D	L	GD	GF	GA	P
France	3	2	0	1	3	6	3	6	TB Goal Difference
Australia	3	2	0	1	-1	3	4	6
Tunisia	3	1	1	1	0	1	1	3	*
Denmark	3	0	1	2	-2	1	3	0	*
GROUP E	GP	W	D	L	GD	GF	GA	P
Japan	3	2	0	1	1	4	3	6
Spain	3	1	1	1	6	9	3	4	TB Goal Difference
Germany	3	1	1	1	1	6	5	4
Costa Rica	3	1	0	2	-8	3	11	3
GROUP F	GP	W	D	L	GD	GF	GA	P
Morocco	3	2	1	0	3	4	1	6	*
Croatia	3	1	2	0	3	4	1	3	** TB Draws
Belgium	3	1	1	1	-1	1	2	3	*
Canada	3	0	0	3	-5	2	7	0
GROUP G	GP	W	D	L	GD	GF	GA	P
Brazil	3	2	0	1	2	3	1	6
Switzerland	3	2	0	1	1	4	3	6	TB Goal Difference
Cameroon	3	1	1	1	0	4	4	4
Serbia	3	0	1	2	-3	5	8	1
GROUP H	GP	W	D	L	GD	GF	GA	P
Portugal	3	2	0	1	2	6	4	6
South Korea	3	1	1	1	0	4	4	3	* TB Draws
Uruguay	3	1	1	1	0	2	2	3	*
Ghana	3	1	0	2	-2	5	7	3	Fourth Place from Draws

[fletch]

This alternative format would be best introduced at a smaller tournament, not the biggest stage (the World Cup).  Especially considering the potential uproar, and drama from media.   I would hate for players to tighten up and not play to their full potential.  Because although the points were altered slightly, and which tiebreaker was used... Every place in every group ended up the same in the fictional tournament as in the real tournament. 

 

Much ado about nothing?  Should I rip my shirt off and walk off?

 

Sample size of 1.  Would like to test for Euros, Copa America, or another tournament to get more data.