article: If Not Artemi Panarin, Then Who?

[Future]

It's a lot easier to defend a team when the whole team is shooting from the same side of the ice.

Sure. But at 5v5 that has almost nothing to do with whether or not guys are righty or lefty. It's nice to have balance, but it doesn't really matter.

[Future]

Just look at the stats. If you really want to break it down calculate the standard deviation for each.

 

Duchene: 13.01

Panarin: 4.95

 

There is a much greater range in production from year to year with Duchene. You can tell this discrepancy just by looking at year over year production.

 

This doesn't take into account potential progression upwards either. Panarin is still on an upwards trajectory. Duchene is up and down. Hard to tell.

p/gp, not total points, is relevant.

 

I'm not even sure what your point is though. Panarin is a better player.

[BrooksBurner]

p/gp, not total points, is relevant.

 

I'm not even sure what your point is though. Panarin is a better player.

 

Lol you asked what math makes it true. Standard deviation of year over year production is a good indicator of what range from the mean we might see. Duchene has a lot more uncertainty. But yes, you are right in that P/GP std deviation year over year would be much more accurate.

 

Panarin: 0.0728

Duchene: 0.1629

 

Panarin much more likely to finish closer to his P/GP average than Duchene; therefore, much less likely to bust.

[Fatfrancesa]

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but...

 

Shea Weber - matched.

Thomas Vanek - matched.

That was before the compensation rules that made four first round picks the compensation

[Fatfrancesa]

Correction Weber would have been. So yes it has happened once

[Future]

Lol you asked what math makes it true. Standard deviation of year over year production is a good indicator of what range from the mean we might see. Duchene has a lot more uncertainty. But yes, you are right in that P/GP std deviation year over year would be much more accurate.

 

Panarin: 0.0728

Duchene: 0.1629

 

Panarin much more likely to finish closer to his P/GP average than Duchene; therefore, much less likely to bust.

Duchene + Kreider...

 

Both would have to hit pretty ridiculous lows to not surpass Panarin's production. Just averaging the last 3-year pace....

 

Kreider + Duchene - 55 G, 60 A

Panarin - 29 G, 53A

 

So sure, your point is true that there is more variance to Duchene's game, and probably Kreider's too, than Panarin's. But it's a pretty hard sell that both Kreider and Duchene would hit such low numbers as to not surpass what you get from Panarin. That's my point. Plus, you don't need to spend further resources on a 2c.

[LindG1000]

That was before the compensation rules that made four first round picks the compensation

 

Wrong.

 

Vanek: http://www.espn.com/nhl/news/story?id=2927805

 

The Sabres retained Vanek's rights by issuing him a qualifying offer last month, but the player -- as a Group 2 free agent -- was open to negotiating other deals. Had the Sabres not matched Edmonton's offer, the Oilers would have had to give up four first-round draft picks to Buffalo as compensation. Draft pick compensation is based on the offer's average annual salary. Four first-round picks is the maximum compensation, required for any team that makes an offer of more than $5 million ayear.

 

Weber: https://www.nhl.com/news/weber-agrees-to-14-year-offer-with-flyers/c-638240

 

Nashville has a week to decide whether to match the offer. If the Predators opt not to do so, it is believed they will receive a package of four first-round draft picks from the Flyers

[BrooksBurner]

Duchene + Kreider...

 

Both would have to hit pretty ridiculous lows to not surpass Panarin's production. Just averaging the last 3-year pace....

 

Kreider + Duchene - 55 G, 60 A

Panarin - 29 G, 53A

 

So sure, your point is true that there is more variance to Duchene's game, and probably Kreider's too, than Panarin's. But it's a pretty hard sell that both Kreider and Duchene would hit such low numbers as to not surpass what you get from Panarin. That's my point. Plus, you don't need to spend further resources on a 2c.

 

My comment wasn't about Duchene + Kreider. That's a separate discussion. It was in reference to your comment about a distaste for Duchene. It's variance and therefore increased risk.

 

With regards to Duchene + Kreider vs Panarin, does it really work like that? By that logic Kreider + Duchene would outscore just about any single player in the league. So Duchene + Kreider > McDavid?

[Future]

My comment wasn't about Duchene + Kreider. That's a separate discussion. It was in reference to your comment about a distaste for Duchene. It's variance and therefore increased risk.

 

With regards to Duchene + Kreider vs Panarin, does it really work like that? By that logic Kreider + Duchene would outscore just about any single player in the league. So Duchene + Kreider > McDavid?

The "math" I referred to was, explicitly, Kreider+Duchene.

 

McDavid had 116 points last year. That's more than the numbers I posted above and he didn't even lead the league in scoring...People forget that Panarin was 17th in scoring last year. It's not like he's a top-5 player.

 

It's also not just Kreider+Duchene vs. Panarin production in a vacuum. It includes price. Is 30 more goals worth $2m more? Would you trade Kreider, Duchene, 4 first rounders, and an extra $9-10m in cap space for Panarin and Point? If not Point, what's the cost of a 2c? Would you rather have Panarin and, say, Kevin Hayes at $18m instead of Kreider and Duchene at $14m? In these cases, I'm having a hard time seeing where Kreider+Duchene isn't really the best option. Yes, there is some risk in Duchene.

[Gravesy]

I don't really get the distatste for Duchene, he would be a great get for the Rangers precisely because he could be a "wagon" as the 2c behind Zib. Especially considering our hole at C, he could be an excellent add. Panarin at $12m might not be a better signing than Duchene at, say, $8m, without giving up RFA compensation. The problem is that someone is likely to pay Duch as a high-end 1c.

 

I think the conversation around NYR hasn't shifted enough to address the massive hole at C, or the fact that Kakko solves a lot of the issues on the wing. The Panarin talk started long before the lottery, and getting so lucky changed a lot of that, or should have.

 

Are we sure that a top-9 of:

 

Kreider - Zib - Buch

Kakko - Duchene - Chytil

Lias - Howden - Kravtsov

 

would be worse than:

 

Panarin - Zib - Buch

Lias- Chytil - Kakko

Lemieux - Howden - Kravtsov

 

I mean, is Panarin at $12m better than Kreider AND Duchene at $14m? I'd have a hard time buying that argument, especially when you haven't solved 2c with Panarin.

 

There's no "distaste" for Duchene. Like I said, he's a good player. He isn't elite, however. And like you said, someone is going to pay him as a high end C. And that's the entire problem with him. He strikes me as this years textbook example of the UFA someone paid too much for.

And let's be honest here; there is absolutely no chance you're getting Duchene and Kreider for a combined 14m. Kreider will go north of 6 and Duchene will go north of 8, virtually guaranteed. So to answer your question I'll take Panarin every day of the week. Having 15m+ tied up in Kreider and Duchene 4 years down the line looks potentially awful for what is hopefully a contending team by then. It'll probably make you want to kick a puppy every time you think about it if they go that route tbh. No thanks.

[LindG1000]

The "math" I referred to was, explicitly, Kreider+Duchene.

 

McDavid had 116 points last year. That's more than the numbers I posted above and he didn't even lead the league in scoring...People forget that Panarin was 17th in scoring last year. It's not like he's a top-5 player.

 

To be fair - when was the last time a top 20 scorer became a UFA, let alone one yet to turn 28? Closest is PROBABLY Marian Gaborik - and even then, his pre-FA season, he was hurt.

[Pete]

To be fair - when was the last time a top 20 scorer became a UFA, let alone one yet to turn 28?

Tavares?

[LindG1000]

Tavares?

 

I forgot about him because I just don't associate the Islanders with having had good players in most of my lifetime. Also, I kinda forget he's not even 30 yet. Feels like he's been playing since the dawn of time.

 

Still - probably proves the point. Rare circumstances.

[Future]

To be fair - when was the last time a top 20 scorer became a UFA, let alone one yet to turn 28? Closest is PROBABLY Marian Gaborik - and even then, his pre-FA season, he was hurt.

Sure, it's rare. But that's kind of my point...it has skewed the conversation around who Panarin is as a player.

[Future]

There's no "distaste" for Duchene. Like I said, he's a good player. He isn't elite, however. And like you said, someone is going to pay him as a high end C. And that's the entire problem with him. He strikes me as this years textbook example of the UFA someone paid too much for.

This is what I mean by distaste. You're making assumptions that he's going to not be worth the value. Most UFAs aren't but this idea that he's going to be a 55-point $8m player for the next 7 years or whatever is really underselling his talent.

[josh]

Sure, it's rare. But that's kind of my point...it has skewed the conversation around who Panarin is as a player.

 

My conversation has always been about his skill, and having the exact skills to complement the current roster of top 6 forwards. He's fast, he works hard, he's defensively capable, and most importantly he drives play. He controls play. He can control a game. He can take over a game. Things I havent seen from Duchene in 5 years, and not nearly as consistent at Panarin. Panarin makes players around him better.

 

Duchene is borderline complementary player, Kreider most certainly is.

[LindG1000]

Sure, it's rare. But that's kind of my point...it has skewed the conversation around who Panarin is as a player.

 

Potentially - but it's been rare if ever that the hivemind has been wrong about the quality of player you get in these situations.

 

I think we'd all happily sign Panarin to the same deal (% wise) as Gaborik. Heck, he probably earned close to Tavares money (center bias probably bumps Tavares up some).

 

Panarin probably comes in at something like 7/73 - and at that price, I think he's both worth it and a valuable add. He might end up being a bear toward the end of that deal, sure, but he'll almost assuredly make it worth your while for the first 4 or 5 years.

[LindG1000]

This is what I mean by distaste. You're making assumptions that he's going to not be worth the value. Most UFAs aren't but this idea that he's going to be a 55-point $8m player for the next 7 years or whatever is really underselling his talent.

 

I think it's fair to say that Duchene has not consistently scored commensurately with his talent. When he has - and that's been a bit more recent - he's been a great player. He has had some ups-and-downs - that's also a fair statement.

[Future]

Potentially - but it's been rare if ever that the hivemind has been wrong about the quality of player you get in these situations.

 

I think we'd all happily sign Panarin to the same deal (% wise) as Gaborik. Heck, he probably earned close to Tavares money (center bias probably bumps Tavares up some).

 

Panarin probably comes in at something like 7/73 - and at that price, I think he's both worth it and a valuable add. He might end up being a bear toward the end of that deal, sure, but he'll almost assuredly make it worth your while for the first 4 or 5 years.

Hivemind is wrong all the time lol.

 

Panarin at 7x73 is a pipedream unless he takes a serious discount. It's more like 7x84.

 

I'm not saying that I'm against signing Panarin, regardless (though I wouldn't). My point is just that the way he is viewed is skewed based on the fact that he's a UFA. If not, we aren't talking about him any different than we're talking about, say, Mikko Rantanen or Mark Scheifele...those second-tier types of stars.

[Future]

I think it's fair to say that Duchene has not consistently scored commensurately with his talent. When he has - and that's been a bit more recent - he's been a great player. He has had some ups-and-downs - that's also a fair statement.

Yes, I'd say that's fair.

[LindG1000]

Hivemind is wrong all the time lol.

 

Panarin at 7x73 is a pipedream unless he takes a serious discount. It's more like 7x84.

 

I'm not saying that I'm against signing Panarin, regardless (though I wouldn't). My point is just that the way he is viewed is skewed based on the fact that he's a UFA. If not, we aren't talking about him any different than we're talking about, say, Mikko Rantanen or Mark Scheifele...those second-tier types of stars.

 

Why do you think that?

 

Panarin's stats are similar to Tavares, who just got 7/77 under a 79m cap. It's generally accepted that know centers get paid more than wings. Cap is expected to go up around 5%.

 

I'd expect he falls in somewhere between 10 and 11m/y. Anything more is a hard sell, even for a topline wing.

[Future]

Why do you think that?

 

Panarin's stats are similar to Tavares, who just got 7/77 under a 79m cap. It's generally accepted that know centers get paid more than wings. Cap is expected to go up around 5%.

 

I'd expect he falls in somewhere between 10 and 11m/y. Anything more is a hard sell, even for a topline wing.

B/c Tavares took a discount. The Isles offered him 8x11.25. He's also saving a bunch of cash by getting almost all of it as bonuses, if I'm not mistaken.

 

Panarin could fall between 10 and 11, I'm not saying it's impossible. But if his goal is to start a bidding war, and Florida is involved, it's going to cost $12m all dya.

[BrooksBurner]

The "math" I referred to was, explicitly, Kreider+Duchene.

 

McDavid had 116 points last year. That's more than the numbers I posted above and he didn't even lead the league in scoring...People forget that Panarin was 17th in scoring last year. It's not like he's a top-5 player.

 

It's also not just Kreider+Duchene vs. Panarin production in a vacuum. It includes price. Is 30 more goals worth $2m more? Would you trade Kreider, Duchene, 4 first rounders, and an extra $9-10m in cap space for Panarin and Point? If not Point, what's the cost of a 2c? Would you rather have Panarin and, say, Kevin Hayes at $18m instead of Kreider and Duchene at $14m? In these cases, I'm having a hard time seeing where Kreider+Duchene isn't really the best option. Yes, there is some risk in Duchene.

 

Give me McDavid's 3 year average just like you did with the other 2, and not just the career high he set last year. Let's not cherrypick.

 

McDavid 3 year average: 37 G 71 A 108 points

 

Still less output. Now what?

 

Also I never mentioned Kreider. I pointed out Duchene's variance as a reason for "distaste", which you tried to invalidate with some off the cuff and inaccurate Panarin variance comparison.

[Gravesy]

This is what I mean by distaste. You're making assumptions that he's going to not be worth the value. Most UFAs aren't but this idea that he's going to be a 55-point $8m player for the next 7 years or whatever is really underselling his talent.

 

It’s not distaste at all imo, but whatever. Over paying good, but not great, players happens every year in free agency.

There’s isn’t a whole lot in his career that suggests he’s likely to represent value at 8m + for the next 7 years. In fact I’d argue you’re the one making assumptions, because it’s debatable whether the numbers support your claim.

 

Again, good player. I just think you nailed it with your initial remark. In a hot UFA market someone’s going to pay him above his worth. I’m really not sure that’s in the Rangers interest for a guy who’s closer to a 2c than a 1c for me.

[josh]

Hivemind is wrong all the time lol.

 

Panarin at 7x73 is a pipedream unless he takes a serious discount. It's more like 7x84.

 

I'm not saying that I'm against signing Panarin, regardless (though I wouldn't). My point is just that the way he is viewed is skewed based on the fact that he's a UFA. If not, we aren't talking about him any different than we're talking about, say, Mikko Rantanen or Mark Scheifele...those second-tier types of stars.

We talked about him last off season.

He wasn't discussed because it wasnt a possibility to acquire him (that we knew of) until last year when rumors started. So yea... then we discussed him.