Confirmed Adam Fox Wins Norris Trophy

Zib is such a fucking character. Everyone else is like, in a chair, in typical look, just chillin, and he's out in like a fjord wearing his Sweden shirt and taking shit.

He's such a goofball! I love it!! LOL

From the players:

Lindgren is totally on the shitter...

Lindgren is totally on the shitter...

....and Strome looks like the 4th Beastie Boy!!! :rofl:

Deserving of more!!!!

Here we go: Our Norris Trophy Winner!!! (I can't believe I just typed that!!! LOL)

Even more Fox: :thumbs:

....and Strome looks like the 4th Beastie Boy!!! :rofl:

LOL he sure does! Thanks for the laugh Ozzy!!!

Lindgren is totally on the shitter...

That was Lindgren? Didn't recognize him without any cuts and scrapes on his face.

$10M per on the next contract?

We’re so fucked

$10M per on the next contract?

 

We’re so fucked

Hopefully not but if you’re gonna give it to anyone, it should be fox.

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$10M per on the next contract?

 

We’re so fucked

Nah, I doubt it, Simon...Hedman makes $7.875 mil and he's a perennial Norris candidate/winner (http://www.capfriendly.com/teams/lightning)

Flat cap....Hometown boy....I figure either the Rangers try to work something out with an extension during this season, or they give him something in the neighborhood of Hedman.

Makar is a RFA this off season as well. I'm sure the Rangers will be watching to see what the Avalanche offer up with him.

$10M per on the next contract?

 

We’re so fucked

Says who?

1. Fox isn't an RFA until next off-season, giving the Rangers time to assess and not have to negotiate on the heels of a Norris Trophy victory.

2. Fox is going to follow in the footsteps of Makar, Hughes, and Heiskanen -- all RFAs this off-season who are due significant raises.

3. All three have used Chabot's 8x8 as a model, citing their belief they are better than him, but that doesn't mean they'll actually eclipse what he got for one very important reason:

4. There was a near 12% salary reduction this season due to the pandemic. The cap is remaining flat for multiple years following this one. That's likely to play a significant factor into exactly how much Makar, Hughes, and Heiskanen sign for.

Nah, I doubt it, Simon...Hedman makes $7.875 mil and he's a perennial Norris candidate/winner (http://www.capfriendly.com/teams/lightning)

 

Flat cap....Hometown boy....I figure either the Rangers try to work something out with an extension during this season, or they give him something in the neighborhood of Hedman.

 

Makar is a RFA this off season as well. I'm sure the Rangers will be watching to see what the Avalanche offer up with him.

Hedman signed his deal in 2016. He's not a comparable. He also signed in a state with no income tax. He'd likely be making $1 million more per year (if not more) if not for the fact he's playing in Florida.

Hedman signed his deal in 2016. He's not a comparable. He also signed in a state with no income tax. He'd likely be making $1 million more per year (if not more) if not for the fact he's playing in Florida.

Thanks for the heads up, chief!! I didn't take that into consideration. But I don't see Fox seeking 10 balloons after next year, for sure.

I think you're right about Makar, and I left out Heiskanen, but both of those deals may very well be the ones that helps set the watermark for Fox.

Says who?

 

1. Fox isn't an RFA until next off-season, giving the Rangers time to assess and not have to negotiate on the heels of a Norris Trophy victory.

 

2. Fox is going to follow in the footsteps of Makar, Hughes, and Heiskanen -- all RFAs this off-season who are due significant raises.

 

3. All three have used Chabot's 8x8 as a model, citing their belief they are better than him, but that doesn't mean they'll actually eclipse what he got for one very important reason:

 

4. There was a near 12% salary reduction this season due to the pandemic. The cap is remaining flat for multiple years following this one. That's likely to play a significant factor into exactly how much Makar, Hughes, and Heiskanen sign for.

None of these players mentioned are/were Norris trophy winners. Fox’s agency would be a dopesickle if he didnt use it to get more money

None of these players mentioned are/were Norris trophy winners. Fox’s agency would be a dopesickle if he didnt use it to get more money

OK, great, but where'd the $10 million come from? You're just guessing?

There is no apples-to-apples comparison for a player winning the Norris and then re-signing a year later in recent years. Most of the more recent winners were the reverse — signing and then winning. Burns signed his deal in '16, for example, and won the Norris in '17. Josi signed in '19 and won in '20. Hedman signed in '16, won in '18.

But even if you look at those deals, the easiest, and most reliable way to view them is through cap hit percentage. Burns' deal was 10.96%. Josi's was 11.12%. Hedman's was 10.79%. If we use an average of 11%, that's approximately $8.965 million, not $10 million, and it doesn't reflect the near 12% average decrease in salary last season due to the pandemic economy.

Factor in a potential 12% reduction and we're possibly looking at a long-term deal worth around $7.172 million.

Even if its not $10M, even if its $8M—we’re still fucked

Why? It was probably going to be around that, regardless. How are they fucked? The books are wide open. It all depends on who you keep and who you don't. The fact that Lafreniere and Kakko haven't exactly lit the world on fire is actually extremely helpful. Neither is in line for a massive pay day. Chances are most of the Rangers youngsters are getting bridge deals.

None of these players mentioned are/were Norris trophy winners. Fox’s agency would be a dopesickle if he didnt use it to get more money

Let's see if it actually works that way though.

Since the lockout, you've had

Lidstrom

Lidstrom

Lidstrom

Chara

Keith

Lidstrom

Karlsson

Subban

Keith

Karlsson

Doughty

Burns

Hedman

Giordano

Josi

Fox

We should probably ignore everything before the first Keith win since the cap was just all sorts of weird (no player in the NHL makes 18% of the cap these days).

So Keith wins in 2009-10; he signed his current 13 year 72M contract (at 9.75% of the cap and a 5.538m cap hit) during his Norris winning season

Lidstrom wins in 2010-11; he signed a 1 year, 6.2m deal on or around the day he won the Norris (10.44% of the cap)

Karlsson in 2011-12; that was at the end of his ELC and he, like Lidstrom, signed a deal on or around the day he won the award (7 years, 45M, 10.11% of the cap)

Subban in 12-13; he was going in the final year of his bridge deal and signed an 8 year, 72m deal at 13% of the cap two seasons later.

Keith again, now in year 4 of that deal.

Karlsson again, now in year 3 of that deal.

Doughty in 15-16; he's interesting in that he was halfway through an 8/56 (10.89% of the cap) and four years later signed his...awful current deal.

Burns in 16-17 was ending the first year of his current deal (8y, 64m, 10.96% of the cap)

Hedman in 17-18 was ending the first year of his current deal (8/63, now 10.8% of the cap)

Giordano in 18-19, was halfway through his current deal (6/40.5, 9.45% of the cap)

Josi in 19-20 had already extended into his current deal (8/72.4, 9.059M hit, 11.1% of the cap)

So we have a few things here:

1 - Nobody really wins this thing on their ELCs besides Karlsson, who I believe had already signed his extension pre-Norris win (it's a difference of mere days), so we're already in a weird space.

2 - Nobody really gets a raise for having won a Norris with any real immediacy.

3 - The ONLY players who got contracts within one year of a Norris win were Lidstrom (who took a pay cut) and Subban (who had his contract spiral out of control pretty fast).

I think if you're looking for the model, it's probably Karlsson and the expectation should be that the Fox contract take around 10% of the cap.

8 years, 65M or so is probably the ceiling.

Let's see if it actually works that way though.

 

Since the lockout, you've had

 

Lidstrom

Lidstrom

Lidstrom

Chara

Keith

Lidstrom

Karlsson

Subban

Keith

Karlsson

Doughty

Burns

Hedman

Giordano

Josi

Fox

 

We should probably ignore everything before the first Keith win since the cap was just all sorts of weird (no player in the NHL makes 18% of the cap these days).

 

So Keith wins in 2009-10; he signed his current 13 year 72M contract (at 9.75% of the cap and a 5.538m cap hit) during his Norris winning season

Lidstrom wins in 2010-11; he signed a 1 year, 6.2m deal on or around the day he won the Norris (10.44% of the cap)

Karlsson in 2011-12; that was at the end of his ELC and he, like Lidstrom, signed a deal on or around the day he won the award (7 years, 45M, 10.11% of the cap)

Subban in 12-13; he was going in the final year of his bridge deal and signed an 8 year, 72m deal at 13% of the cap two seasons later.

Keith again, now in year 4 of that deal.

Karlsson again, now in year 3 of that deal.

Doughty in 15-16; he's interesting in that he was halfway through an 8/56 (10.89% of the cap) and four years later signed his...awful current deal.

Burns in 16-17 was ending the first year of his current deal (8y, 64m, 10.96% of the cap)

Hedman in 17-18 was ending the first year of his current deal (8/63, now 10.8% of the cap)

Giordano in 18-19, was halfway through his current deal (6/40.5, 9.45% of the cap)

Josi in 19-20 had already extended into his current deal (8/72.4, 9.059M hit, 11.1% of the cap)

 

So we have a few things here:

 

1 - Nobody really wins this thing on their ELCs besides Karlsson, who I believe had already signed his extension pre-Norris win (it's a difference of mere days), so we're already in a weird space.

2 - Nobody really gets a raise for having won a Norris with any real immediacy.

3 - The ONLY players who got contracts within one year of a Norris win were Lidstrom (who took a pay cut) and Subban (who had his contract spiral out of control pretty fast).

 

I think if you're looking for the model, it's probably Karlsson and the expectation should be that the Fox contract take around 10% of the cap.

 

8 years, 65M or so is probably the ceiling.

Yeah, I just did quick math on this — somewhere between $8.965 million and $7.172 million at 11% of the cap.

Using 10% of the cap, it's somewhere between $8.125 million and $7.313 million (factoring in for 12% average decrease in pay) -- both as eight-year deals.

To me, I think when his next deal is signed will have a direct correlation to how much it is signed for. I think that everyone agrees that it will be a max term deal of at least 7 years, but in all likelihood 8 years.

A smart GM would use this Summer to give him that and I agree with Phil and G1000 that is will come in between 7-8 million AAV. If they choose to wait until his entry level deal expires next season, and Fox has another season like last and/or wins another Norris, I think that they will be looking at a 10 million + deal.

Hopefully they are looking at this proactively and get something done as that extra 2-3 million they save will have a significant downstream effect on Zibenjad, Lafrenaire, etc......and other upgrades that they may want to bring in from outside like Eichel, etc.....

To me, I think when his next deal is signed will have a direct correlation to how much it is signed for. I think that everyone agrees that it will be a max term deal of at least 7 years, but in all likelihood 8 years.

 

A smart GM would use this Summer to give him that and I agree with Phil and G1000 that is will come in between 7-8 million AAV. If they choose to wait until his entry level deal expires next season, and Fox has another season like last and/or wins another Norris, I think that they will be looking at a 10 million + deal.

 

Hopefully they are looking at this proactively and get something done as that extra 2-3 million they save will have a significant downstream effect on Zibenjad, Lafrenaire, etc......and other upgrades that they may want to bring in from outside like Eichel, etc.....

Fox is a strange case for a number of reasons though.

Any other defender in his shoes would probably want like 5years, 40-ish million for the extremely clear reason of "that's a 27 year old top tier UFA defender" - he'd make sure he's making over 100M in his career that way especially with what should be a rapidly rising cap. Any other defender looks to maximize the value here. But Fox doesn't want to be anywhere else and we know that. I wonder how that plays in.