Danger Zone: Is Buchnevich a First Line Player?

Asking after some discussion in the Offseason thread.

Do you consider Buchnevich to be a bonafide first line player?

This is not to be confused with playing on the top line. We are talking first line player-calibre in the NHL. Panarin - first line player because of his play, and not a 2nd line player because that's where he lines up.

If you are not familiar with the "Danger Zone", this is what I call players getting 1st line/overpaid contracts when they are 2nd line players. If a guy is a first liner - you pay him. You can always trade a first line player. Also, I believe it was Brian Burke that once said you don't pay a guy first line money just because he's your best player at that position. You need to pay what he is worth.

Current Danger Zone threshold is $4.5m per season.

As I am cheap, Dave established the Josh's underpaying-sliding scale. So 1.25x 4.5 = 5.625m per for those of you rich snobs.

So what it comes down to is, if you think he's a top line player, there should be no hesitation giving him 6m per for 5/6 seasons.

From offseason thread.

It's mostly that you need to pay Buchnevich now, and there's only so much cap.

 

We're not having this conversation if Chytil took steps, tbqh.

All comes down to how you feel about him as a player.

 

http://www.blueshirtsbrotherhood.com/showthread.php?24114-Danger-Zone-Is-Buchnevich-a-First-Line-Player

 

If he's a first liner, you sign him. Simple.

I say yes. I don't like to pay anyone, but he's earned it. Not only offensively, but with his all-around play. He finished 6th in points among RWs. (Marner, Rantanen, Kane, Stone, Pasta). .89 P/GP good for 10th among RWs. Not to mention he played with Zibanawho the first have and during the second half of the season, and still produced. (And remember how snake bitten he was to start the season?) AND he didn't play on the top PP unit.

We can't look at this like "oh, they have Kakko and Kravtsov". Would you say that about moving Zibanejad when you have Morgan Barron and Chytil? No.

jeez, I didnt even realize he had 3 SH goals.

Yes. He's a 1st line player now. There's only one situation I've seen thus far where I would trade him (M. Tkachuk), and you'd still have the same depth at wing afterwards. Other than that, I'm keeping him. Let Kakko/Kravtsov fight for the other top 6 spot. You know the saying...a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I'm not dealing Buchnevich so that we can put two maybes on RW into the top 6, especially if the new mandate is playoffs or bust. I also would prefer not to deal Kakko or Kravtsov this summer. I'd like to see them compete next season. If they both light it up, then we can consider dealing Buchnevich. If only one does, we know who the odd man out is. If neither do, well, be glad we kept Buchnevich.

Zibanejad or Strome is the guy out IMO. Probably Strome. Zibanejad is too dynamic, even if he's soft.

2019-2020: 82-game pace of 55 points

2020-2021: 82-game pace of 73 points

5th of all RWs in 2020-21 in points, behind only Marner, Rantanen, Kane, and Stone. Tied with Pasternak (with 6 more GP)

So yes, I think at the base level that Buchnevich is a 1st line player in terms of output and skill.

On the flip side, Buch had a career high PDO of 103.6, significantly higher than every prior season aside from his rookie year. His Corsi and Fenwick were also in the red. He meshes very well with Zibanejad. I think that in and of itself is a positive. I wonder how he'd do with Strome and Panarin, or with Zibanejad and Panarin for an entire season.

Lmao.

So, based on the parameters set, I voted no, despite how I say they should resign him in the other thread.

That price range suggests he's NOT a 1st line player. Not a star. But at say max 5.5, he's worth that money.

The price tag suggests 2nd/3rd liner. That's his worth, despite WHERE he plays on this roster (which has consistently been on line 1), Ala how Panarin is on line 2. It's just where he fits in line make up. Ideally you have him with Panarin, and have someone better with Zibanejad, but what he contributes to that combination works, where as Panarin doesn't exactly NEED much help from his opposite wing. Christ, he's played with shit like Fast and Blackwell the last 2 years.

Meanwhile the Kreider- Zibanejad- Buchnevich line really just clicked and complemented each other perfectly and effectively.

Buch could play almost anywhere in this lineup and contribute. That makes him worth what I feel should be no more than 5.5. for 4 years.

Worth the suggested price tag, which isn't 1st line player money.

He’s not a line driver but he is a complimentary first line player. Put him

With zib or panarin and he compliments them well. Can’t pay him like you would either of those guys though.

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Never pay for a spike in production in a contract year.

What’s that have to do with being a first line player?

What’s that have to do with being a first line player?

I did t even suggest doing that with Strome.

On a team that doesn’t make the playoffs? Yes.

so ignoring what HE did because his teammates didn't?

Top wingers of the playoff teams:

Marchand & Pastrnak

Ovechkin & Wilson

Guentzel & Zucker

Eberle & Bailey

Svechnikov & Niederreiter

Huberdeau & Hornqvist/Duclair

Kucherov & Palat

Forsberg & Arvidsson

Marner & Nylander

Puljujarvi & Yamamoto

Connor/Ehlers & Wheeler

Toffoli & Tatar

Rantanen & Landeskog

Stone & Pacioretty

Kaprizov & Zuccarello

Perron & Hoffman

I think Buchnevich could take a shift/role with Washington, Pittsburgh, the Islanders, Florida, Edmonton, Minnesota and St. Louis. Granted there's so much more complexity to it, but I think when you look at this list, Buchnevich doesn't exactly not belong.

Buch gains entry just above the cusp of first-line player based upon his progression and style of play. He’s no longer tentative or dramatically soft. Is he Marshit? No and may never be but that doesn’t prevent him from being in the first line club of players.

Buch stepped up several aspects of his game and continues to develop. He’s a very good complimentary player as has already been mentioned. I’d say he’s worthy of the 5.5-5.95 range. Over $6M? I’m not sure we are there yet. If next season continues along the same trajectory then he will see his pay elevate accordingly. Let’s hope it becomes a ‘problem’ we’ll have to deal with because he is just that good.

Top wingers of the playoff teams:

Marchand & Pastrnak

Ovechkin & Wilson

Guentzel & Zucker

Eberle & Bailey

Svechnikov & Niederreiter

Huberdeau & Hornqvist/Duclair

Kucherov & Palat

Forsberg & Arvidsson

Marner & Nylander

Puljujarvi & Yamamoto

Connor/Ehlers & Wheeler

Toffoli & Tatar

Rantanen & Landeskog

Stone & Pacioretty

Kaprizov & Zuccarello

Perron & Hoffman

 

I think Buchnevich could take a shift/role with Washington, Pittsburgh, the Islanders, Florida, Edmonton, Minnesota and St. Louis. Granted there's so much more complexity to it, but I think when you look at this list, Buchnevich doesn't exactly not belong.

Not many of those names were more productive than Buchnevich. Who, again, didn’t play on the top PP unit.

Thanks for putting the list together.

No. But he is a “2nd line” player on teams that compete for cups.

The concept is weird to me.. the best player on the teams isn’t oven on the “1st line”. I think Buch should be paid like a 4-6 guy.

I think he's a first line player, just not for our team. Zib and LaF may be Ratelle and Gilbert, but Buch is not in the Hadfield mold. They need someone who can clear out some space for Zib and LaF but not indulge them in tic-tac-toeism.

So Kakko?

Yes. He's a 1st line player now. There's only one situation I've seen thus far where I would trade him (M. Tkachuk), and you'd still have the same depth at wing afterwards. Other than that, I'm keeping him. Let Kakko/Kravtsov fight for the other top 6 spot. You know the saying...a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I'm not dealing Buchnevich so that we can put two maybes on RW into the top 6, especially if the new mandate is playoffs or bust. I also would prefer not to deal Kakko or Kravtsov this summer. I'd like to see them compete next season. If they both light it up, then we can consider dealing Buchnevich. If only one does, we know who the odd man out is. If neither do, well, be glad we kept Buchnevich.

 

Zibanejad or Strome is the guy out IMO. Probably Strome. Zibanejad is too dynamic, even if he's soft.

On the same token, I'm not letting Buchnevich hold up a trade for a bonafide player.

He's a strange case in that he's done beautifully to grow his game, but it's a real risk to pay him here almost strictly from a cap management perspective - with one major caveat. Term.

If he wants the Kreider deal, he has to be dealt. You can't realistically have 24 million+ tied up in three wings.

If he wants the Taylor Hall special, give it to him. The term is not an issue, it's a bit of a "prove it" deal, and if the ship goes completely sideways, he's top tier trade bait.

If he wants...like...the Oliver Bjorkstrand? That's where the number is right but the term is really rough if you're expecting him to be passed on the depth chart by Kakko and/or Kravtsov - and I am.

On the same token, I'm not letting Buchnevich hold up a trade for a bonafide player.

 

He's a strange case in that he's done beautifully to grow his game, but it's a real risk to pay him here almost strictly from a cap management perspective - with one major caveat. Term.

 

If he wants the Kreider deal, he has to be dealt. You can't realistically have 24 million+ tied up in three wings.

 

If he wants the Taylor Hall special, give it to him. The term is not an issue, it's a bit of a "prove it" deal, and if the ship goes completely sideways, he's top tier trade bait.

 

If he wants...like...the Oliver Bjorkstrand? That's where the number is right but the term is really rough if you're expecting him to be passed on the depth chart by Kakko and/or Kravtsov - and I am.

I don't see how you are avoiding that even if you deal Buchnevich. If you think one of Kakko or Kravtsov will be any good, they'll get paid what you'd pay Buchnevich now. So long term you have the same problem. Short term they can spend 24 million on 3 wings no problem. There is plenty of cap space for that. The key to a Buchnevich deal is for it to be as tradeable as possible so they can pivot. They absolutely cannot show Buchnevich the door and then watch Kakko/Kravtsov bust in their face, and right now, to be honest, it could go either way on those two guys. There's no guarantee there and I think we can agree that's the worst case scenario. Holding Buch on as tradeable of a deal as possible hedges the bet. They don't get stuck asking Kakko/Kravtsov to carry the load as the two top 6 RW next year, and they keep their best RW by a country mile as insurance.

I'm with you that he wouldn't and shouldn't hold up a trade for a bonafide player, but it needs to actually be a bonafide player. I think there's been maybe 3 or 4 names I've seen that qualifies as bonafide at this stage.

I don't see how you are avoiding that even if you deal Buchnevich. If you think one of Kakko or Kravtsov will be any good, they'll get paid what you'd pay Buchnevich now. So long term you have the same problem. Short term they can spend 24 million on 3 wings no problem. There is plenty of cap space for that. The key to a Buchnevich deal is for it to be as tradeable as possible so they can pivot. They absolutely cannot show Buchnevich the door and then watch Kakko/Kravtsov bust in their face, and right now, to be honest, it could go either way on those two guys. There's no guarantee there and I think we can agree that's the worst case scenario. Holding Buch on as tradeable of a deal as possible hedges the bet. They don't get stuck asking Kakko/Kravtsov to carry the load as the two top 6 RW next year, and they keep their best RW by a country mile as insurance.

 

I'm with you that he wouldn't and shouldn't hold up a trade for a bonafide player, but it needs to actually be a bonafide player. I think there's been maybe 3 or 4 names I've seen that qualifies as bonafide at this stage.

That's a fair assessment - I'm not necessarily in disagreement here. I just don't think Kakko and Kravtsov make a ton on their next deals barring incredible breakout seasons - and even then it's in the air. Reasonably, what are they getting if they put up, say, a mid 50s and a high 40s point season (let's assume they both end up on the top line) - 3-ish apiece? Maybe 4 for Kakko?

By the time they're due the big bucks, Kreider's traded. Panarin's got 2 years. Trouba's probably gone. Fox is in year 3 of an 8 year megadeal. Lafreniere is in year 2 of an 8 year deal. Zib is in year 3 or 4 of his deal. You've made it tenable, or you've at least kicked the can hard enough for the cap to go up again.

edit - I'd add that Buch on a tradeable deal is an ideal situation assuming that's something he wants. If I'm Buch, I want the long term deal. I'm not sure the team does, and I'm guessing that's going to be a point of friction. I'd sooner take him at 2y/16m than I would at 5y/32m given our cap circumstances.

Can Buch himself be capable of carrying a team for stretches, winning you games, stop a losing streak by himself, or lead a team? A bonafide first line player is capable of those things.

I think Buch is a good 2nd line player, yes...but I'm not sure of what kind of "Playoff player" he'd be. He developed a nice mean streak this season, but I agree with Keirik in the fact that I don't see him as a player that can throw his team on his back and carry them through a rough stretch.

Fact is, I think Kreider's contract makes Buch a trade candidate. I'd rather keep Buch, and get rid of Kreider, but that ain't a happenin' now.