Owen Power is Unanimous No. 1 in TSN’s Mid-Season Draft Rankings

The TSN Mid-Season 2021 NHL Draft Rankings have become a Power Ranking.

 

As in, Owen Power.

 

It’s unanimous - 10 out of 10 NHL scouts surveyed by TSN have the 6-foot-5 1/2 University of Michigan freshman defenceman at No. 1. The Mississauga, Ont., native has solidified and enhanced his No. 1 standing from last fall’s preseason rankings, when only four of those same 10 scouts had him ranked first overall.

 

That said, it should be noted that Power’s No. 1 status on draft day is not an absolute lock. His mantle is not unassailable. Most of the scouts who ranked him first do allow for the possibility he could still be challenged for top spot and a name other than Power could be called out on July 23.

 

He is, however, the consensus favourite.

 

“I don’t know what percentage number you would want to put on it,” said one scout, “60, 70 per cent? I’m not sure. It’s certainly more than 50 per cent, but this is not a draft where there’s one dominant prospect who is the unquestioned No. 1 choice. I mean, it’s close enough between Power and the other top guys that you couldn’t rule out someone else. There are some defencemen who could still challenge him and if the team picking first overall this year really wants or needs a forward, well, there are a couple of forwards who could still be [viable options at] No. 1.”

 

It’s a draft year like no other. The pandemic has created a playing field that is anything but level. Most prospects haven’t played in the quantity or quality of games they normally would. Some haven’t played at all and some of those who have found themselves in unfamiliar leagues and surroundings.

 

Scouts have not been able to do much in-arena scouting. And while many NHL scouts are locked and loaded, ready to draft players based on unprecedented levels of video scouting, many of the evaluators are still trying to discern this year’s data and what it all means.

 

There is no doubt that the upcoming IIHF Under-18 World Championship, scheduled for April 26 - May 8 in Frisco and Plano, Texas, will afford the scouts a wonderful opportunity to see many of the blue-chip prospects in a more “normal” best-on-best environment. (Power, by the way, is not in the U-18 because he’s a late 2002 birthdate and this tourney is for 2003-born players). But even the boon that is the U-18 tourney happening is causing some scouts some consternation when weighed against all that has gone on — or not gone on — this season.

https://www.tsn.ca/owen-power-the-unanimous-no-1-in-tsn-s-mid-season-draft-rankings-1.1626057

I know scouts watch these guys for years but with Covid and limited playing time in the last year or so, I don’t envy scouts and GM’s this year. And as forgettable as kakko and laf have been so far, I’m glad the rangers won’t be picking top 10 THIS year.

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Peyton Krebs' brother Dru is draft eligible. I don't give a flying fuck if he's any good, it's time to add the Krebs family to the Rangers family. Y'all know what I'm talking about.

I assume hot mom?

I assume hot mom?

Sisters are gorgeous too.

Sisters are gorgeous too.

:rofl:

I assume hot mom?

Sisters are gorgeous too.

This is the first draft in recent memory where there has been no real clear cut #1 overall(or at least consensus 1-2 picks).

Looking at Elite Prospects, have seen other professional draft sites also list Karlson, Power, Beniers, & Clarke as the projected #1 overall.

https://www.eliteprospects.com/draft-center/2021/draft-prospects-hockey

Barring a major losing streak and/or lottery luck Rangers will probably be picking around 14-17.

As the top center in the draft, if Beniers drops out of the top 3 do the Rangers use one or some combination of their potentially disposable assets like Strome, Buchnevich, Jones, Baron, Reuanen and/or Lundqvist to package to trade up for the 4th pick if that opportunity presents itself?

This is the first draft in recent memory where there has been no real clear cut #1 overall(or at least consensus 1-2 picks).

 

Looking at Elite Prospects, have seen other professional draft sites also list Karlson, Power, Beniers, & Clarke as the projected #1 overall.

 

https://www.eliteprospects.com/draft-center/2021/draft-prospects-hockey

 

Barring a major losing streak and/or lottery luck Rangers will probably be picking around 14-17.

 

As the top center in the draft, if Beniers drops out of the top 3 do the Rangers use one or some combination of their potentially disposable assets like Strome, Buchnevich, Jones, Baron, Reuanen and/or Lundqvist to package to trade up for the 4th pick if that opportunity presents itself?

Should they draft a center? Yes.

Should they move up to grab one who is not going to really help them this or next year? Not unless they are extremely high on someone and the opportunity presents itself.

Should they draft a center? Yes.

 

Should they move up to grab one who is not going to really help them this or next year? Not unless they are extremely high on someone and the opportunity presents itself.

McKeen's say that he could be ready for the NHL next season, but would benefit from another year in college; sounds to me like he fits the parameters you laid out. If the expectation is that they are going to lose one of Lundqvist or Jones, you could do alot worse than trading that asset for the #1 center prospect in the draft who is almost NHL ready, and is drawing comparisons to Jonathan Toews.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/ncaa-matt-beniers/

McKeen's say that he could be ready for the NHL next season, but would benefit from another year in college; sounds to me like he fits the parameters you laid out. If the expectation is that they are going to lose one of Lundqvist or Jones, you could do alot worse than trading that asset for the #1 center prospect in the draft who is almost NHL ready, and is drawing comparisons to Jonathan Toews.

 

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/ncaa-matt-beniers/

Playing in the NHL and being the #2 centerman for a team poised to make the playoffs are two different things.

Besides they said that about both Laf and Kakko.

Playing in the NHL and being the #2 centerman for a team poised to make the playoffs are two different things.

 

Besides they said that about both Laf and Kakko.

You would still have Strome and/or Chytil on the roster in this scenario? If you would put him in that role it would involve Beniers outplaying and pushing one or both of them out of the way. That is great thing about the level of depth in this organization.

Peyton Krebs' brother Dru is draft eligible. I don't give a flying fuck if he's any good, it's time to add the Krebs family to the Rangers family. Y'all know what I'm talking about.

You would still have Strome and/or Chytil on the roster in this scenario? If you would put him in that role it would involve Beniers outplaying and pushing one or both of them out of the way. That is great thing about the level of depth in this organization.

Either way.. I dont think putting another 18 year old on this team is going to improve them much next season.

But what do I know.. :confused:

You would still have Strome and/or Chytil on the roster in this scenario? If you would put him in that role it would involve Beniers outplaying and pushing one or both of them out of the way. That is great thing about the level of depth in this organization.

I think it's much more likely the Rangers trade completely out of round 1 than it is they trade up without something as a counterweight.

I think it's much more likely the Rangers trade completely out of round 1 than it is they trade up without something as a counterweight.

Not sure I follow the thought process.

What would be the logic behind trading out of the first round?

Not sure I follow the thought process.

 

What would be the logic behind trading out of the first round?

If they don't draft a top center, then its would seem feasible to draft out of the first round....Trade 1st round pick + prospect or 2 for an established C (not Eichel). Rangers are deep on wing/and defense so if they are in win now mode and another 1st round pick may never get a chance to play for this team.

Not sure I follow the thought process.

 

What would be the logic behind trading out of the first round?

Yeah, it seems illogical but it makes a lot of sense.

First - they're almost guaranteed the 15th overall pick. They straight up can't win the lottery - barring them making the playoffs, they're picking at 15. If they make the playoffs, that picks drops to 19 or so (if they make the playoffs, they will have finished with a better record than the fourth place teams in the other divisions, and pending how it all shakes out, possibly better than the third place team in the North). I don't see a point in exploring conference final scenarios - they're not getting there barring some kind of miracle. For the sake of argument here, let's just sayin they're picking 15.

Second - the 2021 draft has long been seen quite a bit like 2017 - no clear #1, really hard to read, a mishmash of middle-six or lower talent beyond the top 6 or so, not deep enough to think you're getting much higher end talent further on. It's full of projects. Drafting a guy who can't help you until 2025 or so doesn't help the Rangers right now.

Third - pandemic has fucked scouting some. The Rangers have an advantage in that they're heavily invested in Euro scouting, and they've actually played, but the OHL hasn't played, the WHL and QMJHL both played heavily abridged seasons. The Rangers have a glut of picks in the middle rounds, where the European "gems" tend to go.

Fourth - flat cap is going to increase the value of draft assets quite dramatically as the realities begin to sink in for players and GMs.

Fifth - the Rangers are prospect-bloated right now. The value of a 1st rounder to be used on anything less than an elite center is really not there.

Finally - the Rangers are looking to turn the corner and begin competing. They're in more need of a "now" piece than a "later" piece and they've got a powerful asset to move for a now piece in this pick.

So what you've got is a situation where the Rangers will pick in the middle of the pack in a draft that's largely without higher end talent and partly in the dark because of a lack of games and the pandemic. You've got us already stocked where we truly shine in the draft, and the cupboards are overflowing. On top of that, you've got a bunch of teams that have to make moves.

I think trade is the right call.

Yeah, it seems illogical but it makes a lot of sense.

 

First - they're almost guaranteed the 15th overall pick. They straight up can't win the lottery - barring them making the playoffs, they're picking at 15. If they make the playoffs, that picks drops to 19 or so (if they make the playoffs, they will have finished with a better record than the fourth place teams in the other divisions, and pending how it all shakes out, possibly better than the third place team in the North). I don't see a point in exploring conference final scenarios - they're not getting there barring some kind of miracle. For the sake of argument here, let's just sayin they're picking 15.

 

Second - the 2021 draft has long been seen quite a bit like 2017 - no clear #1, really hard to read, a mishmash of middle-six or lower talent beyond the top 6 or so, not deep enough to think you're getting much higher end talent further on. It's full of projects. Drafting a guy who can't help you until 2025 or so doesn't help the Rangers right now.

 

Third - pandemic has fucked scouting some. The Rangers have an advantage in that they're heavily invested in Euro scouting, and they've actually played, but the OHL hasn't played, the WHL and QMJHL both played heavily abridged seasons. The Rangers have a glut of picks in the middle rounds, where the European "gems" tend to go.

 

Fourth - flat cap is going to increase the value of draft assets quite dramatically as the realities begin to sink in for players and GMs.

 

Fifth - the Rangers are prospect-bloated right now. The value of a 1st rounder to be used on anything less than an elite center is really not there.

 

Finally - the Rangers are looking to turn the corner and begin competing. They're in more need of a "now" piece than a "later" piece and they've got a powerful asset to move for a now piece in this pick.

 

So what you've got is a situation where the Rangers will pick in the middle of the pack in a draft that's largely without higher end talent and partly in the dark because of a lack of games and the pandemic. You've got us already stocked where we truly shine in the draft, and the cupboards are overflowing. On top of that, you've got a bunch of teams that have to make moves.

 

I think trade is the right call.

I see the value in the points that you are making, especially with this year's draft being weak to begin with, and the lack of scouting contributing to it even more of a scratch ticket than it usually is.

Having said that, even in a weak draft like 2017 there was plenty of real cornerstone prospects to be found(Peterson, Makar, Suzuki) and really good middle forwards and defensemen(Chytil, Thomas, Vilardi, Branstromm, Yammamoto, & Jokiharju). My concern with your logic on trading out of the first round, is if everyone is looking at the value of these draft picks being worth less because of the uncertainty you are going to get less value in return.

Also don't buy the idea there being such a thing as being prospect bloated. If you take the current Zac Jones/Nils Lundqvist conundrum of likely not having a place for both of them to play; that is a really good problem to have. With the way flukey injuries can happen(Sauer, Cheparonov, etc...) you almost have insurance against that at that position. Assuming that doesn't happen, you can just use them to trade for a need or kick the can down the road by trading for future picks and/or prospects or move out a declining asset like they did with Rozival when Tyutin, Staal, & Girardi showed they were ready. They are going to need that prospect saturation when Fox, Laf, Kaako, Chytil, Miller, and Kravtsov come due and may have trouble moving Kreider and/or Trouba.

My take would be to swing for the fences if Beniers falls out of the top 3 or stand pat at 14-17 to take a flyer on one of those project types you mentioned.

Here's a question, does the fact they can't scout anything this year really change the % of successful picks? Considering how wrong they get this every year, I don't think it does.

Depends what you think of scouts lol

All the talking heads think this year is just a shot in the dark.

Here's a question, does the fact they can't scout anything this year really change the % of successful picks? Considering how wrong they get this every year, I don't think it does.

As far as the ability to pick accurately, I would think not since most teams are dealing with the same handicap.

Would disagree with the idea that they get this wrong every year though. The conventional wisdom is that an NHL team needs to draft 1.5 active NHL players per year since teams are assigned 7 draft picks every year(before trades), that every draft pick is not going to make it(otherwise teams would completely turnover every 3-4 years). When I say 1.5 active NHL players I mean that as an average; if a team turns out 6 active NHL players over 4 years, that is 1.5 per year. I define an active NHL player someone who can play 60-70 NHL games before injuries.

Now important details like the quality of those picks play an important role in how successful a team is at drafting. About half way down the article below is a chart that outlines a first round pick has a 74% chance of playing in the NHL while a 7th round pick faces an 11% chance. If you split the first round up by picks 1-10, 11-20, & 21-31 you even get a wider variance.

https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/

The Rangers have absolutely been looking to meet that standard from the 2017 draft onward, then again they have had 8 first round picks over that 4 year window so the odds are certainly in their favor. It is worth noting that they also have 5-6 2nd round and higher picks that are on target to hit that >99 game standard as well. That seems like pretty effective drafting to me, but time will really tell who is able to devlop for the long haul.

If you look at the Rangers draft record from 2013-2016, it's absolutely atrocious by comparison in terms of players that have been able to play over 99 NHL games. Completely worth noting that in that 4 year window they had 0 first round picks and only 2 second round picks. Despite that handicap they still managed to deliver 4 NHL players that have(or will- Shesterkin) meet the 99+ game threshold.

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00007089.html

In my opinion it is unfair to say that they screw up the drafting every year, when the truth lies so much more heavily in where they are drafting vs. whom they are drafting. For every Lias Anderson that they truly whiffed on, there is ALOT in the pipeline to be excited about.

Peyton Krebs' brother Dru is draft eligible. I don't give a flying fuck if he's any good, it's time to add the Krebs family to the Rangers family. Y'all know what I'm talking about.

Dru Krebs? Now that's a name and a half.