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Playoff Push — Magic Number Thread


Blue Heaven

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The Rangers would be sitting in a playoff position in 2 other divisions, and 1 point out with 2 games in hand of the other.

 

Slow start is on them, but it is true that they got absolutely butt fucked with division alignment.

I've thought that way all along. But the more I look at it, it may be a wash. Boston basically replaced Carolina, which has been playing its ass off and would likely be ahead of the Rangers anyway. Then Buffalo replaced Columbus who would be below. The Flyers have underperformed while Pittsburgh and the Isles have both exceeded expectations. That leaves NYR in about the same spot that they would have been in the Metro. They may actually be better off in that Boston has wobbled in the 4th spot and left more of an opening.

 

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I've thought that way all along. But the more I look at it, it may be a wash. Boston basically replaced Carolina, which has been playing its ass off and would likely be ahead of the Rangers anyway. Then Buffalo replaced Columbus who would be below. The Flyers have underperformed while Pittsburgh and the Isles have both exceeded expectations. That leaves NYR in about the same spot that they would have been in the Metro. They may actually be better off in that Boston has wobbled in the 4th spot and left more of an opening.

 

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That's true. Maybe it's more fitting to say the east coast just has more good teams, rather than any specific division alignment decision. Geography butt fucked the Rangers.

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I've thought that way all along. But the more I look at it, it may be a wash. Boston basically replaced Carolina, which has been playing its ass off and would likely be ahead of the Rangers anyway. Then Buffalo replaced Columbus who would be below. The Flyers have underperformed while Pittsburgh and the Isles have both exceeded expectations. That leaves NYR in about the same spot that they would have been in the Metro. They may actually be better off in that Boston has wobbled in the 4th spot and left more of an opening.

 

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To be honest, I always thought the Flyers overachieved last year. I didn’t really look at that roster thinking it was really anything special. Then again, I also think the Penguins this year are also overachieving but to a lesser degree because of well, Crosby just being himself so they are never far out with him.

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How's this for an indictment of the NHL's ridiculous system:

 

Rangers 18-16-9 in regulation

Flyers 13-17-13 in regulation

Rangers 58 better than Flyers in goal differential. That's right, 58!

 

Rangers two points ahead of the Flyers, both with 43 games played.

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There's also a pretty goddamn reasonable argument that they've just been stupidly unlucky.

 

 

 

Basically - even without those Flyers games, the Rangers should have at least one more win - including them, more like four. Assuming they don't get blown out for any games for the rest of the season, they could finish top 5 in goal differential and miss the playoffs, which would be an utterly absurd situation.

 

They’ve only won 4 one-goal games...

 

I don’t care how bad they blow out the flyers and pens. If you win that few games you’re done. That’s the difference on the season and it’s not bad luck. It’s inexperience.

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I see all three teams immediately ahead of the Rangers as very vulnerable to a collapse. Two of them are way past their best before date. The other is relevant only due to some coaching black magic.

 

It's highly unlikely, but now there's three targets. Just keep winning.

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playing our best all around hockey of the year and we've lost ground, up the kids ice times. them finishing strong is our "win"
For all I've argued how they shouldn't be judged on whether or not they actually make the playoffs - which I stand by - the drive to pass Boston has focused the Rangers on what it takes to win in a way that is extremely valuable for the kids. So, no matter what their chances actually are, they need to keep their attention on the need to bank those points. Fortunately, the kids have been getting more TOI in the process. Having this rubber-meets-the-road period in what could have just been a cockeyed COVID shitshow of a season has potentially made the year a stunning success for team development. Doesn't mean that they play like grizzled vets yet, but at least they're quickly losing the peach fuzz.

 

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For all I've argued how they shouldn't be judged on whether or not they actually make the playoffs - which I stand by - the drive to pass Boston has focused the Rangers on what it takes to win in a way that is extremely valuable for the kids. So, no matter what their chances actually are, they need to keep their attention on the need to bank those points. Fortunately, the kids have been getting more TOI in the process. Having this rubber-meets-the-road period in what could have just been a cockeyed COVID shitshow of a season has potentially made the year a stunning success for team development. Doesn't mean that they play like grizzled vets yet, but at least they're quickly losing the peach fuzz.

 

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This is why it’s more upsetting the kids weren’t getting more ice time and PP time throughout the season.

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This is why it’s more upsetting the kids weren’t getting more ice time and PP time throughout the season.
IDK. Quinn had the dilemma from the get-go. He couldn't just say I'll play the kids and lose until I win. The fans, blogs, Brooks, etc., would have demanded his head on a pike orders of magnitude more intensely than they did. The kids certainly didn't look ready to win on their own and the team would not have gotten to this place in the standings without getting Zib out of post-COVID funk, giving Bread and Strome their minutes, and playing Fox-Lindgren (apparently already veterans at about 100 games) about 80 minutes a game.

 

All those things gave LaF, Kakko, and Miller some space to build some confidence and Chytil to get healthy again. I just think that the fact that they can play these games for something real now - the only better experience-builder being to play in actual playoff series, which is still remotely possible - may be more important than how they got here.

 

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IDK. Quinn had the dilemma from the get-go. He couldn't just say I'll play the kids and lose until I win. The fans, blogs, Brooks, etc., would have demanded his head on a pike orders of magnitude more intensely than they did. The kids certainly didn't look ready to win on their own and the team would not have gotten to this place in the standings without getting Zib out of post-COVID funk, giving Bread and Strome their minutes, and playing Fox-Lindgren (apparently already veterans at about 100 games) about 80 minutes a game.

 

All those things gave LaF, Kakko, and Miller some space to build some confidence and Chytil to get healthy again. I just think that the fact that they can play these games for something real now - the only better experience-builder being to play in actual playoff series, which is still remotely possible - may be more important than how they got here.

 

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Sorry, young forwards*

 

Zibanejad was out half the season. Kreider missed half the season, Panarin missed significant time... and the kids still get no PP. and the PP is still one of the worst in the league. Plenty of chances to get young skilled forwards in a place to build confidence and playing time.

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Add the Isles to this, Rangers might have a better chance of catching them.

 

Once the islanders lost 2 to the bruins and looked bad doing it it changed the whole game

It looks like the islanders are back to not being able to buy a goal not to mention they don't have the hop they used to have

Rangers actually look like they were about to get hot ( crossed fingers ) so I put 50 at 45 to 1 to win it all

It's all about getting hot at the right time

It's a tall order but if we sweep the islanders we are only 2 points behind with equal games left to play

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Isles winning doesn’t really kill us either way since the premise of catching them really involves us winning our three meetings left with them. Do that and it still puts you within reach of them regardless. Just would need extra help, which is what we need regardless from other teams anyway. Making the playoffs is not an easy task. Even after these recent 4 games the Rangers realistically need to win 8 or 9 or their next 11 games since you assume the teams they are trying to catch aren’t just rolling over and dying.

 

That basically means the Rangers would be around 12-3/13-2 over their last 15 games of the season. Now, that sounds impossible. It’s definitely improbable but if you look back at our good stretch last year we are capable of this exact thing.

01/31/20 - 02/27/20 over that 15 game stretch the Rangers were.......12-3 with one win being in ot and another in the shootout and two different 4 game and 5 game win streaks. So the team is capable of this kind of stretch. So let’s not just bow our heads and say impossible. They have it in them. Honestly, these 4 games were a lot bigger than people really realize. Yes the Devils suck. However, this is the NHL. Beating the same team 4 straight games is a huge confidence boost. You could see this push back the last two games and they still came out on top. We are an up and down team but one capable of a long up stretch. Pleassseeee make it right now.

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Updated:

Islanders 45 GP 60 Points 82 Pts Max

Boston 43 GP 56 Points 82 Pts Max

-----------------------------------------------

NYR. 45 GP 52 Points 74 Pts Max

 

Isles getting 2 points tonight is killer for Rangers. Zero help for the Rangers this week.

 

 

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Updated:

Islanders 46 GP 62 Points 82 Pts Max

Boston 44 GP 58 Points 82 Pts Max

-----------------------------------------------

NYR. 46 GP 52 Points 72 Pts Max

 

 

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Rangers 52p

Nashville 51p (4th in Central)

Montreal 47p (4th in North)

Arizona 45p (4th in West)

 

Basically out of the playoff race in our division but would be in a playoff spot in any other division.

 

I know they've blown way too many games, but man are they getting fucked by this new format. Would have a WC spot if it was top 3 in each division and 2 WC spots in each conference too.

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Rangers 52p

Nashville 51p (4th in Central)

Montreal 47p (4th in North)

Arizona 45p (4th in West)

 

Basically out of the playoff race in our division but would be in a playoff spot in any other division.

 

I know they've blown way too many games, but man are they getting fucked by this new format. Would have a WC spot if it was top 3 in each division and 2 WC spots in each conference too.

The thing is, everyone and their mother said a good team in the East was goi g to miss the playoffs because of this format. No surprises here. Just sucks we might be that team.

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