[lebrun] Team Exec Says He Expects Rangers, Islanders to "Take a Run" at Patrik Laine

I said repeatedly it's something I'd have strongly considered, just not straight up. It would have had to have been 1 for Tkachuk, 3, and 5. I'd have had a very difficult time saying no to that.

My initial reaction would have been to do it immediately. I don’t know though, the thought of a real 1st overall that’s just ours and as close to a sure thing.....I’m happy we have exactly who we have.

That doesn't make any sense. Lafreniere hasn't played a single game. Tkachuk has had 2 productive years. You're missing the point.

You swapped out the Kakko/Laine combo for Laffy/Tkachuk plus picks. Tkachuk has 2 pro years on Lafreniere, and is a 40-point player, his second year was a statistical regression. Same amount of points getting three more minutes a game and more power play time... Not impressed.

I expect more from Lafreniere in his rookie year than from Tkachuk in his third. Point being, the trade is basically hope (Laffy) for more hope (hoping Tkachuk lives up to his draft position plus picks being... Hope). It's not trading hope for wins at all.

Laine is much more proven, Kakko won't be what Laffy will be. It's just a completely inequitable scenario, IMO.

That's if I'm understanding the premise of the debate correctly...

Don’t need any RH wings.

Unless it’s something like Stome + Buch for Laine + Roslovic (but he’s pretty much a wing, though )

I don't think that would work from Winnipeg's perspective. He's rapidly approaching UFA. Anyone they are getting back has to be someone they can hold onto for a while. That pretty much instantly rules out the Stromes, DeAngelos, and maybe even Georgiev's of the world. I feel like, from a hockey perspective, this screams Kreider. It's just a matter of whether he'd ever OK it. It's the type of deal that makes the most sense from both clubs' perspectives (salted and peppered to taste, of course).

I get that our RW depth is kind of mystery box-y ("Kravtsov/Kakko could be anything! They could even be Laine!"), but the cap implications of acquiring Laine are almost crippling without sending Kreider over. And, let's face it - Kreider isn't waiving that NMC for Winnipeg. Keep playing the dominoes game and you start to recognize that acquiring Laine costs us Zibanejad or Trouba. Which would be fine...if Trouba were even remotely moveable.

I get that our RW depth is kind of mystery box-y ("Kravtsov/Kakko could be anything! They could even be Laine!"), but the cap implications of acquiring Laine are almost crippling without sending Kreider over. And, let's face it - Kreider isn't waiving that NMC for Winnipeg. Keep playing the dominoes game and you start to recognize that acquiring Laine costs us Zibanejad or Trouba. Which would be fine...if Trouba were even remotely moveable.

The cap implications are almost crippling even with sending Kreider over. Having him on the Rangers' books is already increasing the stress internally and among us fans, what with a potentially flat cap for the next few seasons and what could be massive raises due to young players on second or third contracts (Shesterkin, Kakko, Laf, etc).

The cap implications are almost crippling even with sending Kreider over. Having him on the Rangers' books is already increasing the stress internally and among us fans, what with a potentially flat cap for the next few seasons and what could be massive raises due to young players on second or third contracts (Shesterkin, Kakko, Laf, etc).

The cap implications are almost crippling even with sending Kreider over. Having him on the Rangers' books is already increasing the stress internally and among us fans, what with a potentially flat cap for the next few seasons and what could be massive raises due to young players on second or third contracts (Shesterkin, Kakko, Laf, etc).

I can see a path forward with Kreider and Laine ostensibly flipped on the cap chart. Laine probably can't command much more than another 750k-1m over his current salary barring a completely bonkers COVID season. What's the going rate for 30/30 wings in the flat cap world - 7M-ish? That's almost trivially different than Kreider. Obviously, he's young, so there's some room for him to just...go off, but I seriously doubt he's going to make more than that without the UFA designation.

Shesterkin is going to be negotiating his next contract with, at best, a 60 game body of work. I can't see that being a massive deal, and I have to imagine that the Rangers will push for - and get - multiple years on it. Not to be a dick to him or something, but even with his KHL resume it's kinda hard to open the vault on him.

Laf is worrisome, if only because we're already committed to 1/3 of the expected cap in his contract year - that's before Zib, before Fox, before Kakko, and assuming we've basically flipped Kreider and Laine - and he could command 8+ if he's all he's cracked up to be.

I'm not worrying about Kakko until he gives cause to worry. He's 19, so again, runway for years, but I'm completely in the dark on what he gets in two years. If he performs to his draft pedigree, he might be getting around 5.5-6.

A lot of this is uncertain territory - very "two birds in the bush" stuff. Also, I'm guessing there's going to be some pressure on the NHL and the NHLPA to alter the cap system over the next few years, either through compliance buyouts, maintaining the taxi squad concept, or the introduction of a luxury tax, because there are far too many contracts that were signed with the assumption of at least some cap growth that will absolutely hamstring key teams. Either that, or as Pete said - this generation is just going to have to eat it for a while on under-market contracts and bridge deals.

I think that generation of players needs to start understanding that they'll all be bridged. That's just the financial reality of it. Only very special players are going to get rich in their second contract.

I was saying that in another thread. If we are in a flat cap world for a few seasons, it’s not going to really matter what players really want especially with no leverage. The money just won’t really be there league wide.

I think that generation of players needs to start understanding that they'll all be bridged. That's just the financial reality of it. Only very special players are going to get rich in their second contract.

Agreed.

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The author does not claim any inside information or anything based on a source. He just says "I got to believe" the Islanders and Rangers would be in. In other words, it's not more probative than any poster on a forum saying "I got to believe" something.

I got to believe the Rangers are in on Bobby Orr coming out of retirement and bolstering the left side of the defense. If not, I think Barry Beck's shoulder is finally feeling better.

There's something about Laine that doesn't sit right with me. I mean, he's obviously a great shooter and he'd be a huge addition to our PP. But are you getting good Laine or lazy Laine? What's he like as a team mate? How would he react to being in the big city with a shiny new deal? For some reason he just feels like a guy who could bust pretty hard here. Tremendous upside if it works out, obviously.

Honestly, at least part of me would be more interested in Dubois, who is in similar situation (albeit with 2 years on his deal).

There's something about Laine that doesn't sit right with me. I mean, he's obviously a great shooter and he'd be a huge addition to our PP. But are you getting good Laine or lazy Laine? What's he like as a team mate? How would he react to being in the big city with a shiny new deal? For some reason he just feels like a guy who could bust pretty hard here. Tremendous upside if it works out, obviously.

Honestly, at least part of me would be more interested in Dubois, who is in similar situation (albeit with 2 years on his deal).

All of me is more interested in Dubois than Laine. Center - which we need. Clearly breaking out - again, a need. Physical with a bit of a nasty streak to him - again, a need. He and Lafreniere both have strong links to Rimouski (he grew up there, Laf played there, though I freely admit this sort of thing is overrated). He's on a two year deal with a QO of just around 7.3M - probably reasonable for a high end 24 year old fringe 1c.

Columbus lacks defensive depth. We have it. We lack center depth. They have it. PLD to NYR makes a fuckton of sense if they're willing to take some amount of middling cap back (a Buchnevich or a Strome or someone in that price range)

All of me is more interested in Dubois than Laine. Center - which we need. Clearly breaking out - again, a need. Physical with a bit of a nasty streak to him - again, a need. He and Lafreniere both have strong links to Rimouski (he grew up there, Laf played there, though I freely admit this sort of thing is overrated). He's on a two year deal with a QO of just around 7.3M - probably reasonable for a high end 24 year old fringe 1c.

 

Columbus lacks defensive depth. We have it. We lack center depth. They have it. PLD to NYR makes a fuckton of sense if they're willing to take some amount of middling cap back (a Buchnevich or a Strome or someone in that price range)

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All of me is more interested in Dubois than Laine. Center - which we need. Clearly breaking out - again, a need. Physical with a bit of a nasty streak to him - again, a need. He and Lafreniere both have strong links to Rimouski (he grew up there, Laf played there, though I freely admit this sort of thing is overrated). He's on a two year deal with a QO of just around 7.3M - probably reasonable for a high end 24 year old fringe 1c.

 

Columbus lacks defensive depth. We have it. We lack center depth. They have it. PLD to NYR makes a fuckton of sense if they're willing to take some amount of middling cap back (a Buchnevich or a Strome or someone in that price range)

I mean, yes, but that's the functional component. The cost — the "sweetener," — will be significant. I have no idea how you don't give up Kakko in this deal.

I mean, yes, but that's the functional component. The cost — the "sweetener," — will be significant. I have no idea how you don't give up Kakko in this deal.

Because it never happens that way. Top prospects or NHL ready players do not get moved unless they're forcing a hand. Taylor Hall didn't get a top prospect. Erik Karlsson didn't get a top prospect (though the Sens got super lucky that the Sharks collapsed like a neutron star). Trouba didn't get a top prospect. Fox didn't. Faulk didn't. Kessel didn't. It's not quite apples to apples, but these are probably the sorts of trades you have as a model.

These trades never send a truly "elite" prospect back - it's always like....1st rounder, second or third best defensive prospect, roster player who is like your 7th top 6 forward, maybe one more pick. CBJ obviously has the luxury of telling PLD to go fuck himself for two years+ here, but history shows over and over that they're not going to get the moon for him.

The best case scenario is a like-for-like hockey trade - a PLD for like...Darnell Nurse or something.

Because it never happens that way. Top prospects or NHL ready players do not get moved unless they're forcing a hand. Taylor Hall didn't get a top prospect. Erik Karlsson didn't get a top prospect (though the Sens got super lucky that the Sharks collapsed like a neutron star). Trouba didn't get a top prospect. Fox didn't. Faulk didn't. Kessel didn't. It's not quite apples to apples, but these are probably the sorts of trades you have as a model.

 

These trades never send a truly "elite" prospect back - it's always like....1st rounder, second or third best defensive prospect, roster player who is like your 7th top 6 forward, maybe one more pick. CBJ obviously has the luxury of telling PLD to go fuck himself for two years+ here, but history shows over and over that they're not going to get the moon for him.

 

The best case scenario is a like-for-like hockey trade - a PLD for like...Darnell Nurse or something.

1. Taylor Hall (24), Erik Karlsson (28), and Jacob Trouba (25), were older than PLD is (22) when they were dealt.

2. Taylor Hall was flipped for Adam Larsson (23) — a former fourth-overall pick.

3. All three deals were East-West or West-East, not East-East, and not inter-divisional. Remember, the Jackets will be right back in the Rangers division again as soon as 2021-22.

They may not get the moon, but I'd argue that (a) Kakko is not the moon, and (b) you still have to give to get. If you think you're going to bully them into giving up PLD for a year of Ryan Strome, a hope, and a prayer, you're probably going to be sadly mistaken. Still, if it's not Kakko, it's something close to Kakko. Kravtsov, maybe. Chytil, perhaps. Especially if he doesn't break out this season.

PLD is a burgeoning, 22-year-old, potential 1C. They're not taking spare parts and warm bodies back for him, and especially not players on the cusp of walking in free agency like Strome.

1. Taylor Hall (24), Erik Karlsson (28), and Jacob Trouba (25), were older than PLD is (22) when they were dealt.

2. Taylor Hall was flipped for Adam Larsson (23) — a former fourth-overall pick.

3. All three deals were East-West or West-East, not East-East, and not inter-divisional. Remember, the Jackets will be right back in the Rangers division again as soon as 2021-22.

 

They may not get the moon, but I'd argue that (a) Kakko is not the moon, and (b) you still have to give to get. If you think you're going to bully them into giving up PLD for a year of Ryan Strome, a hope, and a prayer, you're probably going to be sadly mistaken. Still, if it's not Kakko, it's something close to Kakko. Kravtsov, maybe. Chytil, perhaps. Especially if he doesn't break out this season.

 

PLD is a burgeoning, 22-year-old, potential 1C. They're not taking spare parts and warm bodies back for him, and especially not players on the cusp of walking in free agency like Strome.

Sure - I'm just pulling players that generate this level of excitement. The overwhelming likelihood is that PLD won't be dealt this season anyway, so you're looking at a 23 year old top 6 C with 1C potential. That's probably right in the sense that it's not going to be just Strome - and as I said, the Jackets have zero incentive to have their hand forced - but it's not going to be a Kakko-level prospect either. Chytil or Kravtsov would fit the mold for more of what the Jackets would realistically get.

I wouldn't hang up the phone if Kakko's name came up if I felt PLD's game would continue to grow on the bigger stage and if they felt he could fit into the longer term cap calculations. Fill the gapping hole at center would be huge for this team especially of they believe this kid is that good.

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back to the OP.. how the hell can the Isles manage this when they can't yet pay Barzal?

Same way the Rangers would —*giving up salary in the deal to make it work. They'd probably pay through the nose to get CBJ to take Ladd, for example.