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Thread: Parsley's Weather Forecast Thread

  1. #4321
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    Quote Originally Posted by Greenday4537 View Post
    About 30 minutes outside AC. It's going to be a close one. I'm guessing a couple inches with mostly rain. Just the slightest push South though could give us at least half a foot.
    Yeah tough call on this one. Could break either way down there.


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    Quote Originally Posted by The Dude View Post
    Easy. Leave 2 hours early.. Lol. Sadly, that's how we have to do it. 2 hours to go 40 miles in the snow, with minimal people on the road.... East of queens.
    The problem is that they don't really plow the Northern and Southern States during storms so people won't be out in the storm. The LIE is the best road to take during snow storms, and that's too far north for me to get to from my house, I live on the south shore. The Southern State is the worst of the 3, and even getting to and from the Northern State from the Southern State using the Wantaugh Parkway or 135 is terrible. Last year, it took me 2 hours to go from exit 37 on the Southern State to exit 28. I called my job and told them where I was and they told me to not even bother and just take the day.

  3. #4323
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    Quote Originally Posted by Morphinity View Post
    A flight scheduled to take off more than 12 hours before the storm even begins is on schedule... who woulda thunk it.
    Point missed is it was originally scheduled for Tuesday AM. Which would have been in the middle of a blizzard.....who wudda thunked it

  4. #4324
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    Quote Originally Posted by sg3 View Post
    Update

    My flight from JFK to Aruba is scheduled to depart on time in 13 hours 30 minutes
    Hopefully their won't be any internet service to let us know when your flight is arriving back to NY

  5. #4325
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Heaven View Post
    Hopefully their won't be any internet service to let us know when your flight is arriving back to NY
    You wouldn't be able to find me anyhow from your seats in the oxygen bottle deck

  6. #4326
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    Seeing "only" 8-12 inches for tomorrow. Fuck yes

  7. #4327
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    I'm seeing 18-20


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  8. #4328
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    Not much change on the overnight models. I'd wouldn't get fixated on specific totals you see forecasted specifically for you as there still could be a solid variance over a small area. In general all areas from PA/NJ on north has the potential for 12-24 inches of snow depending exactly on the speed of the storm and the rain/snow line which will flirt with coastal areas Tuesday morning mixing would keep areas at a much lower snow range like 5-10 inches but still a mess of a storm.

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    Give me 2'. I want 2 days off


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  10. #4330
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vodka Drunkenski View Post
    Give me 2'. I want 2 days off


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    I do not. That's a lot of money lost.

  11. #4331
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    Quote Originally Posted by JOHN View Post
    I do not. That's a lot of money lost.
    2' for me
    2" for you?

    Deal?


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  12. #4332
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    new model runs rolling in.....

    Looks like the start time is still tonight. By daybreak Tuesday, heavy precipitation regionwide. Interior locations appear to be all snow....with alot on tap. Easily 1-2 feet it appears. Closer to the coast many models want to mix sleet and rain into the equation Tuesday morning for a few to several hours. That would have big impacts on snow totals for central/southern NJ, NYC and LI and Philly metro too. If the mix doesn't happen snow totals at the coast will be similar to inland locations.

    The storm move out of the area late Tuesday afternoon and evening.

    I'll add by day daybreak Tuesday, 5-10 inches of snow may already be on the ground for those having to try and get into work.
    Going to be very difficult, at best.

  13. #4333
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    Parsley's Weather Forecast Thread

    Tuesday 8am map...



    Tuesday 2pm map....



    That's one hell of a storm track for a major winter storm.

    Had it been January, it could have been even more immense.


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    Last edited by Parsley; 03-13-2017 at 11:26 AM.

  14. #4334
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    So what's the updated story for Monmouth County and Paramus?

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    Parsley's Weather Forecast Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Ranger Lothbrok View Post
    So what's the updated story for Monmouth County and Paramus?
    Snow overnight tonight. After about 5-6am snow may mix with or change to sleet or rain depending on the exact storm track. It could be the difference between 6 inches and 18
    inches. A much tougher forecast for coastal counties due to precipitation type questions.

    With rates between 1-3 inches of snow per hour a changeover would impact snow totals dramatically.

    This map shows coastal counties walking a tightrope between heavy snow (blue) and heavy rain or sleet (yellow and green)

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    Last edited by Parsley; 03-13-2017 at 12:32 PM.

  16. #4336
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    Shift that storm track 50 miles in either direction and you have a totally different end result.


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    Well, this is going to blow. What time do you think it's all over, Parsley? Trying to figure out if/when I'll get in to work Wednesday.

  18. #4338
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    This sucks.

  19. #4339
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    Wunderground says 8-12 for NYC. Do you dispute that?

  20. #4340
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    Quote Originally Posted by Morphinity View Post
    Wunderground says 8-12 for NYC. Do you dispute that?
    Dispute? Perhaps, but I can understand where that forecast is coming from.
    If the snow changes to sleet and/or rain, those totals can verify. If it doesn't change from snow to sleet/rain it could easily be double that.

    The time frame in question on every model is 7am-1pm. What it does during those 6 hours will define this storm.

    Sleet or rain 2 hours lose 4-5 inches of snow
    Sleet or rain 4 hours lose 8-10 inches of snow
    Sleet or rain 6 hours lose 10+" of snow

    Like I said, NYC is on a tightrope. I'd be going middle of the road with a huge range there, and adjust as the storm is ongoing. 9-18" probably. If it ends up all snow 18"-25" would likely fall. Hell, some models are showing 30"+ over higher elevations of northwest NJ, northeast PA and the Catskills where it definitely will be all snow. I probably wouldn't go that high there either but 24+" could fall.
    Last edited by Parsley; 03-13-2017 at 04:13 PM.

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