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Thread: Democrats are Slight Favorites to Take Back the Senate

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    Democrats are Slight Favorites to Take Back the Senate

    Democrats are slight favorites to regain control of the Senate, according to the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, which launched today. But the map is wide open, with at least a dozen competitive races — none of which are certain pickups for Democrats — including some states where Democrats are playing defense.

    In fact, while it’s possible that Democrats will wind up controlling 54 seats or perhaps even more, the most likely outcome is a much more closely divided chamber, including the possibility of a 50/50 split in which control of the Senate would be determined by whether the vice president is Kamala Harris or Mike Pence. (Joe Biden and Harris currently have a 76 percent chance of winning the presidential race, according to our forecast.1)
    They need to gain a net of three or four seats to win control, depending on if they also win the presidency. More likely, though, they will need to flip four or five Republican-held seats, because chances are good that one seat will flip from blue to red: Democrat Doug Jones is an underdog to keep his seat in Alabama, which he won against a very bad opponent in a special election in 2017.

    Furthermore, while there are a great many Republicans up for re-election this year, only two of them (Colorado’s Sen. Cory Gardner and Maine’s Sen. Susan Collins) are in states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Thus, Democrats will have to pick up seats in states that have traditionally been Republican-leaning, such as Georgia and North Carolina. They also have some more ambitious (but redder) targets in races in Kansas, South Carolina and Alaska.
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ck-the-senate/
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    "Everyone says you should be a good loser. If you’re a good loser, you’re a loser."
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    "Never be a spectator of unfairness or stupidity. Seek out argument and disputation for their own sake; the grave will supply plenty of time for silence."
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    Amy McGrath has a steep hill to climb v Mitch. Their state stats are so bad, why would he be re-elected?

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    Quote Originally Posted by 4EverRangerFrank View Post
    Amy McGrath has a steep hill to climb v Mitch. Their state stats are so bad, why would he be re-elected?
    Charles Rangel comes to mind here. People just vote for the party, not the person. Thats the problem with our country now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NYR2711 View Post
    Charles Rangel comes to mind here. People just vote for the party, not the person. Thats the problem with our country now.
    Sort of like Rangel, though Kentucky is another level of abject.

    It's bottom 20% in literally every meaningful socioeconomic statistic from quality of education to percent of population on food stamps. It's really bad there - they're (not unlike many other hard-red states) a proto-welfare state with no actual welfare-state infrastructure
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    Kelly is a good candidate, McSally is not.

    Collins in liberal New England has been on borrowed time for a while.

    No danger of Tillis splitting the atom, nor completing long division. But suspect of the 3 he has the best shot to retain his seat.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bugg View Post
    Kelly is a good candidate, McSally is not.

    Collins in liberal New England has been on borrowed time for a while.

    No danger of Tillis splitting the atom, nor completing long division. But suspect of the 3 he has the best shot to retain his seat.
    I think that's about right - though Collins is in the renegade independent chunk of NE, not the Massachusetts liberal bastion part.

    I suspect there are a few of these races - NC the most high profile of them, but MT, SC, and possibly even the two GA seats that ride heavily on up-ballot turnout.
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    Warning signs flash for Lindsey Graham in South Carolina

    Democrats are feeling increasingly optimistic about their chances of unseating Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) in South Carolina, bolstered by a recent slate of favorable polling and a massive cash windfall building behind Democrat Jaime Harrison’s Senate campaign.

    A Quinnipiac University poll of the state released this week — the second in a little more than a month — showed Graham and Harrison running neck and neck at 48 percent each.

    In the two days since then, Harrison has pulled in a staggering $2 million, adding to an already massive $10.6 million haul in August alone. And in a sign that national Democrats are eyeing the race with greater enthusiasm, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced a new seven-figure cash injection in the state.

    “There’s a lot of momentum on the ground here and it’s so great and it’s so encouraging,” Harrison said in an interview on Friday. “When I first got into this race and people told me that I couldn’t do this, my whole statement to them is ‘Watch me,’ and that’s exactly what we’re doing.”

    The combined weight of the recent polling and Harrison’s staggering fundraising totals has fueled optimism among Democrats, who see in South Carolina a chance to widen their path to a Senate majority in November.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...south-carolina
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    Not sure if there is any polling data on RBG's death and Trump filling her seat . Collins appears to grasp she has to oppose Trump on this or she's done. Along the same lines, D Doug Jones in Alabama might have little choice but to go along to have any shot at beating Tuberville.

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    "Never be a spectator of unfairness or stupidity. Seek out argument and disputation for their own sake; the grave will supply plenty of time for silence."
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    "Never be a spectator of unfairness or stupidity. Seek out argument and disputation for their own sake; the grave will supply plenty of time for silence."
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    A purple kind of place. The RBG thing here also may be working against Gardner. Also, wonder since Gardner took office how much the growth of the cannabis industry and it's customers impacts things. Example of sometimes all politics is really local.

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    Arizona Is The Democrats’ Purple Splotch In The Sunbelt

    Is Barry Goldwater spinning in his grave? Is Arizona turning blue in 2020?

    By every polling indication, the answer is yes. The latest ream of surveys coming out of the state show President Trump trailing Democratic nominee Joe Biden. The FiveThirtyEight polling average of Arizona has shown Biden with a lead of anywhere from 4.5 to 5 percentage points during the month of September, and our forecast gives Biden a 65 percent chance1 of winning the state.

    Arizona’s blue-ish tint has not been the norm. The last time the state voted for a Democrat for president was in 1996. Before that, Arizona had a streak of voting for Republicans that dated back to 1952. But while Trump won the state with 48.1 percent of the vote in 2016, his was the narrowest margin of Republican victory in recent memory. Mitt Romney won Arizona with 54.2 percent of the vote in 2012 and John McCain won it (his home state) by around the same in 2008. George W. Bush got 55 percent of the vote in 2004.

    But now Arizona is probably a bona fide swing state. That might be difficult to conceive at first — Goldwater, “maverick” McCain, and the latter-day celebrity of Sheriff Joe Arpaio have solidified the state as the conservative cowboy of American pop culture. But a combination of long-term demographic changes and the, uh, unusual nature of the 2020 election, have revealed the state for what it is: a purple splotch in the desert.
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...n-the-sunbelt/
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    Cunningham widens lead over Tillis after news of affair: poll

    Cal Cunningham has widened his lead over Sen. Thom Tillis (R) in North Carolina's marquee Senate race after revelations over an extramarital affair threatened to derail the Democrat's candidacy.

    Cunningham led Tillis, who is running for a second term, by a 48 to 44 percent margin among registered voters in a new Monmouth University poll released Tuesday. The former state senator’s lead grows to 5 points among likely voters in a high-turnout scenario, 49 to 44 percent, while his lead shrinks to 1 point, 48 to 47 percent, in a low-turnout scenario.

    Despite the news of Cunningham’s affair, the Democrat’s lead grew from the same poll from September, which was released before the scandal hit and showed Cunningham with a slimmer 1-point lead over Tillis among registered voters.

    The survey suggests the Senate race will closely match the results of the presidential race, with Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading President Trump by anywhere from 1 to 4 points, depending on the turnout model.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...mpression=true
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    "Never be a spectator of unfairness or stupidity. Seek out argument and disputation for their own sake; the grave will supply plenty of time for silence."
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    Graham cites the "good 'ole days of segregation..." THIS will be the nail in his coffin for re-election. Holy smoke such a dumb-ass.

    https://twitter.com/harrisonjaime/st...081632769?s=20

    Lindsey Graham to ACB: "You're not aware of any effort to go back to the good old days of segregation by a legislative body, is that correct?"

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    Dems need to take back the senate when Biden wins. If Mitch is able to remain and keeps standing in the way, not much Dems can do. Dems need the Texas seat Coryn is playing dodgeball with Trump over, Graham has to go and Collins has not done herself any favors. Senate is in play.

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