Draft Day Deals — Let's Hear 'Em

Because teams are just going to line up and help them out with a flat cap to deal with of their own? Who's taking Killorn or Palat or whomever to help them clear cap for nothing.

Well no, But there still are some teams that go into this offseason with a shit ton of cap space. Buffalo, Detroit, Ottawa, and NJ all have anywhere from 25-35m in cap room this offseason.

One of those teams could easily add a good piece for pennies on the dollar

A bit? He makes $8 million for the next five years for a "2nd line center" who scores less than Ryan Strome. Sorry, but hard pass. I'd sooner re-sign Strome short-term if that is the kind of long-term solution they're after. Least of all for Kreider.

That's pretty reductionist. What would he do with an MVP candidate winger?

 

Exactly. This is a "fear" that isn't actually founded in reality. What team has faced backlash for an offer sheet? Preds poach someone from the Flyers for Weber? Nope. Canes fire back at the Habs for Aho? Nope.

I'm going to make kind of a weird argument, because I don't agree that we shouldn't offer sheet someone because it may happen to us. It may happen to us, anyway.

Why I don't think there will be much offer sheeting is the same reason a team like Nashville wouldn't offer sheet someone from Philly...They need their picks because they can't really afford to pay offer sheets. Other teams will be up against that, due to the 'rona.

I'm going to make kind of a weird argument, because I don't agree that we shouldn't offer sheet someone because it may happen to us. It may happen to us, anyway.

 

Why I don't think there will be much offer sheeting is the same reason a team like Nashville wouldn't offer sheet someone from Philly...They need their picks because they can't really afford to pay offer sheets. Other teams will be up against that, due to the 'rona.

Right. The reason there are so few of them is that the CBA makes the process so onerous that it's rarely used. The compensation scale alone is insane, and in order to even utilize it, you need to be taking advantage of a team who are so tight to the cap that they can't match. Otherwise, all you're doing is overinflating the market value of players that should cost X, but now cost Y, because Y is the only way the other team would walk away.

If they want Cirelli, they should offer sheet him. Tampa is fucked cap-wise. Josh posted the cash range that would require a first- and third-rounder, I believe, or a first-, second-, and third-rounder. It's far more likely this route would be infinitely cheaper than a trade.

Oh, I do not agree with that at all.

First, Tampa's a willing trade partner. Don't burn that bridge by trying to poach an asset. You play that game with either GMs on the obvious outs or with teams you straight up won't trade with. Want to offer sheet Barzal, Reinhart, or Domi? Go for it. Not with the Lightning.

Second, offer sheets inherently require you to price the other team out. We're going to overpay for anyone we offer sheet, so it's better to make that person a proven commodity. It'd take 6.5 or so to offer sheet Cirelli - almost assuredly. Wouldn't you rather give, say, the Car 1st and the suddenly rather expendable Pavel Buchnevich or Vitaly Kravtsov and get Cirelli at 5m or so?

Finally, I'd rather use that Carolina 1st than our 2021 1st in a deal if necessary (and an offer sheet is ostensibly a trade with a forced hand). It's the less valuable asset.

Given Tampa's cap crunch, I think Cirelli can be had for a roster player and two semi-premium futures (i.e. a late 1st and a boom-bust prospect).

Oh, I do not agree with that at all.

 

First, Tampa's a willing trade partner. Don't burn that bridge by trying to poach an asset. You play that game with either GMs on the obvious outs or with teams you straight up won't trade with. Want to offer sheet Barzal, Reinhart, or Domi? Go for it. Not with the Lightning.

 

Second, offer sheets inherently require you to price the other team out. We're going to overpay for anyone we offer sheet, so it's better to make that person a proven commodity. It'd take 6.5 or so to offer sheet Cirelli - almost assuredly. Wouldn't you rather give, say, the Car 1st and the suddenly rather expendable Pavel Buchnevich or Vitaly Kravtsov and get Cirelli at 5m or so?

 

Finally, I'd rather use that Carolina 1st than our 2021 1st in a deal if necessary (and an offer sheet is ostensibly a trade with a forced hand). It's the less valuable asset.

 

Given Tampa's cap crunch, I think Cirelli can be had for a roster player and two semi-premium futures (i.e. a late 1st and a boom-bust prospect).

Not with Cirelli. Tampa is probably up against it worse than any other team in the league. Even a market deal for Cirelli absolutely breaks their bank.

But I'm fine trying to strike a trade first if you really want. I just don't think it's required in this particular case.

Other than Pittsburgh who are the 2nd line centers on recent Stanley Cup champs?

Schenn (STL), Backstrom (WSH), Richards (CHI 2015), Carter (LA 2014).

With the exception of Richards who was already pretty worn down, you need a good second-line center to give you any chance.

Well, that depends entirely on your definition of a 2C and, more importantly, what you expect of them points-wise. They all offer something different, but off the top of my head, William Nylander (24), Cirelli (23), RNH (26), and others can likely be had for various prices. There are likely others in that tweener stage between 2?3C that we're not thinking of, too.

I thinking what we could get for ADA and a 1st. Or, Kreider and a 1st.

RNH and Nylander are good players, but I want some beef.

I thinking what we could get for ADA and a 1st. Or, Kreider and a 1st.

 

RNH and Nylander are good players, but I want some beef.

Same. I'm just not sure you'll find it in the same package. Might have to be separate acquisitions like I suggested in the fourth-line thread, or elsewhere in the lineup.

Despite their lack of scoring in short CAR series, the team really doesn't need more goals. It needs another attack element so that when their primary scorers are shut down (as they were), the team isn't completely neutered.

Schenn (STL), Backstrom (WSH), Richards (CHI 2015), Carter (LA 2014).

 

With the exception of Richards who was already pretty worn down, you need a good second-line center to give you any chance.

Thanks.

So a good center but not a superstar.

Not with Cirelli. Tampa is probably up against it worse than any other team in the league. Even a market deal for Cirelli absolutely breaks their bank.

 

But I'm fine trying to strike a trade first if you really want. I just don't think it's required in this particular case.

They might be up against it cap-wise, but they can still use the summer cap to re-sign him and Sergachev and look to move on from Palat, Gourde, Johnson, or Killorn before next season starts. I don't think an offer sheet that isn't vast over payment works here. If Cirelli's in their plans, they're offer him a fair deal so you have to over pay him to make him want to jump ship from the team that developed him. If he's not, they likely trade him before you can offer sheet him. There won't be a shortage of team interested.

So why over pay him on his contract to get him to jump ship and have to pay out the draft picks as compensation? Why not just offer them a fair deal and then sign him to a fair contract?

Thanks.

So a good center but not a superstar.

Right. Ideally a 50-60 point player. Doesn't even have to be an all-situations type if your bottom-six is strong enough. Washington, Chicago, and St. Louis relied on mostly bottom-six contributions for their PK outside of Toews and O'Reilly.

Not sure this gets us Point, but this is absolutely the core of a deal for either Point or Cirelli.

I have a feeling though offer sheeting Cirelli would only cause them to trade away someone else and leave us with no one. I almost feel like if you approached them prior and put up the offer of Kravtsov and the 1st for Point you can see where they stand for either guy technically. Point is worth more than that for sure, but cap wise they are just a mess and so many of their contracts are untouchable. I have a feeling they would prefer Miller though since they have only 3 d under contract.

If they want a prospect/1st combo for Point I think they would push for Lundkvist. Also, probably a roster player added. Buch/Lundkvist/1st kind of package.

If they want a prospect/1st combo for Point I think they would push for Lundkvist. Also, probably a roster player added. Buch/Lundkvist/1st kind of package.

This is probably right on the money. I'd be hesitant as all hell to trade Lundkvist though. I feel like that would come back to bite them. I'd honestly rather offer sheet.

Not with Cirelli. Tampa is probably up against it worse than any other team in the league. Even a market deal for Cirelli absolutely breaks their bank.

 

But I'm fine trying to strike a trade first if you really want. I just don't think it's required in this particular case.

As insufferable as it can be with the constant Mets crap, Banter has this one right.

If you want to get Cirelli, you trade for him. If you want to get Sergachev, you offer sheet and make them choose. Either way, you work out a deal with the Bolts here, because that's where you've got a serious cap issue that we're primed to throw assets at, and either outcome is a win for both sides.

If they want a prospect/1st combo for Point I think they would push for Lundkvist. Also, probably a roster player added. Buch/Lundkvist/1st kind of package.

Probably right, but the counter-move is that we say "cool, we're offer sheeting him. Take a 1st and a 3rd, or take a bigger cap issue than you had before - and oh, by the way, we're also coming for Sergachev since you cant afford him now."

Eichel and #8 Draft Pick for Trouba, #1 Draft Pick

 

I say yes.

I?d do this in a nanosecond

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I’d do this in a nanosecond

 

 

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Yeah, but you'd also sell your soul for Eichel.

I just don’t know how they afford Buch even at 3m. They have under 6m cap space before even signing Cirelli, Sergachev, or Cernack leaving them decimated at D with very little room to get anyone outside of keeping both Cernak and Sergachev. They can afford to lose a Point because of all the offense they have. I figured Miller because he might be closer to making the NHL and would be on an entry level deal.

I’m not sure their prospect pool but still

Yeah, but you'd also sell your soul for Eichel.

Yes

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I just don?t know how they afford Buch even at 3m. They have under 6m cap space before even signing Cirelli, Sergachev, or Cernack leaving them decimated at D with very little room to get anyone outside of keeping both Cernak and Sergachev. They can afford to lose a Point because of all the offense they have. I figured Miller because he might be closer to making the NHL and would be on an entry level deal.

 

I?m not sure their prospect pool but still

All those guys are RFA and a year away from arbitration. They will probably get DeAngelo'd more or less. 1 yr/925k kind of deals...unless offer sheeted or traded.

All those guys are RFA and a year away from arbitration. They will probably get DeAngelo'd more or less. 1 yr/925k kind of deals...unless offer sheeted or traded.

Yeah and even if they do that, it leaves them with around 1-2m for a 6th Nhl level D. They are going to have to shed a salary. The following players all have NTC or NMC

Hedman (nmc), McD, Stamkos (nmc), Palat, Gourde, Johnson, Killorn. It’s like 45m in contracts very hard to move and player controlled.

There are three big contracts they can move. Vasy, Point, and Kucherov who’s ntc kicks in next year which makes them even more screwed.

All those guys are RFA and a year away from arbitration. They will probably get DeAngelo'd more or less. 1 yr/925k kind of deals...unless offer sheeted or traded.

The circumstances don't compare at all to DeAngelo. DeAngelo played his first full season and put up a .5 ppg. There wasn't much to work off of to determine what kind of pay he should get. He had only played 32 and 39 games the prior two seasons. Compare that to Sergachev who has three full 30+ point seasons. Cirelli has two seasons played at a 40 point clip but was considered by many in the hockey community to be deserving of a Selke trophy nomination this season. I don't think there's even remotely a chance either would sign for one year less than a $1M. Cernak maybe.