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Thread: Trump May Drop out of 2020 Race if Poll Numbers Don't Improve, Say GOP Insiders

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    Trump May Drop out of 2020 Race if Poll Numbers Don't Improve, Say GOP Insiders

    Donald Trump may drop out of the 2020 presidential race if he believes he has no chance of winning, a Republican Party operative reportedly told Fox News.

    The claim comes in a report in the president’s favourite news outlet that cites a number of GOP insiders who are concerned about Mr Trump’s re-election prospects amid abysmal polling numbers.

    Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, currently holds an average lead of nine points over the incumbent, according to a tracker of 2020 polls by RealClearPolitics.

    Crucially, Mr Trump has lost support from older white voters — typically a bedrock of support for the Republican Party and a group that was crucial to his narrow 2016 victory. Mr Trump is also trailing the former vice president in almost all the swing states.

    “It’s too early, but if the polls continue to worsen, you can see a scenario where he drops out,” one anonymous GOP operative told Fox News.

    Charles Gasparino, the author of the Fox News report, said in a series of tweets that he had spoken to “major players” in the Republican party for the story. One of them described Mr Trump’s mood as “fragile” as his chances of a second-term looked increasingly dim.

    Another of the GOP sources cited in the report said of the likelihood that Mr Trump will drop out: “I’ve heard the talk but I doubt it’s true. My bet is, he drops if he believes there’s no way to win.”
    The Trump campaign called reports that the president would consider dropping out “the granddaddy of fake news”.

    “Everyone knows that media polling has always been wrong about President Trump –* they undersample Republicans and don’t screen for likely voters –* in order to set false narratives,” Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh told Fox News.
    https://news.yahoo.com/trump-fragile...wer&soc_trk=fb
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    Narcissists don't quit. Narcissists facing certain prison time once presidential immunity no longer apply DEFINITELY don't quit.

    I'll believe it when I see it.
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    I'll admit, I'm surprised GOP insiders are saying this. Dem strategists — James Carville most recently — have been suggesting it, but I just don't see it either. To Trump, there are only two outcomes possible in November: win, or it was rigged. In what world do we live that the most aggrieved man on the planet is suddenly going to take his ball and go home and not make everyone see what a victim he is?
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    Quote Originally Posted by G1000 View Post
    Narcissists don't quit. Narcissists facing certain prison time once presidential immunity no longer apply DEFINITELY don't quit.

    I'll believe it when I see it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    I'll admit, I'm surprised GOP insiders are saying this. Dem strategists — James Carville most recently — have been suggesting it, but I just don't see it either. To Trump, there are only two outcomes possible in November: win, or it was rigged. In what world do we live that the most aggrieved man on the planet is suddenly going to take his ball and go home and not make everyone see what a victim he is?
    Simple, if he doesn't run he can't lose. There's something possible there... If he knows he's going to lose he might just drop out so that he doesn't have to accept the fact that someone else beat him.

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    I think he would rather lose and then scream that it was rigged etc, his ego will never allow him to bow out prior to (or lose gracefully) especially IF he faces legal issues once he leaves office. We ain't seen nothing yet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    Simple, if he doesn't run he can't lose. There's something possible there... If he knows he's going to lose he might just drop out so that he doesn't have to accept the fact that someone else beat him.
    Right, but not losing still has to be winning. Simply not running isn't enough. In the same ways he never just up and abandoned all his other career failures but to jump start a new grift.

    Carville suggested he might do so if he were to start his own network. Trump TV, in effect. The same thing a ton of Washington insiders and pundits thought he was running in '16 to do before he inadvertently secured the nominaton.

    Why would he willingly walk away without something else to focus on? He needs the attention.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    Right, but not losing still has to be winning. Simply not running isn't enough. In the same ways he never just up and abandoned all his other career failures but to jump start a new grift.

    Carville suggested he might do so if he were to start his own network. Trump TV, in effect. The same thing a ton of Washington insiders and pundits thought he was running in '16 to do before he inadvertently secured the nominaton.

    Why would he willingly walk away without something else to focus on? He needs the attention.
    You have to figure that getting totally hammered in a landslide general election would not improve his prospects for an influential media empire.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RodrigueGabriel View Post
    You have to figure that getting totally hammered in a landslide general election would not improve his prospects for an influential media empire.
    I have to imagine it's hard to run a media empire from prison, too.
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    Trump May Drop out of 2020 Race if Poll Numbers Don't Improve, Say GOP Insiders

    If you don’t run, you can’t lose. Wow!!

    I found it shocking that Mitch Tweeted ‘everyone should wear a mask’ today...and the I saw the news clip on TV of him saying it. My first thought? Trump is toast. GOP have already moved on. Even Pence openly wore a mask to day.

    This #Bountygate scandal is gaining traction bigly. Lose the confidence of your military as C-in-Chief? Part of me thinks he doesn’t last the week.

    Sing it with me, “And now, the end is near...”
    Last edited by 4EverRangerFrank; 06-30-2020 at 12:16 AM.

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    GOP have to be talking behind closed doors about who they can run if Trump resigns/drops out/is impeached again. Any suggestions?

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    Quote Originally Posted by RodrigueGabriel View Post
    You have to figure that getting totally hammered in a landslide general election would not improve his prospects for an influential media empire.
    Sure, if your mental acuity falls anywhere near normal on the spectrum. His doesn't. He's a compulsive liar, a narcissist, and a walking case study in psychological projection. He could literally not garner a single electoral vote and sidestep the entire thing by purchasing OAN and using it to run the biggest grievance in history: it was all a coup designed to oust him because he was doing too good a job and the swamp felt their power slippinig and knew they had too get Trump out of the picture because the people love him too much.

    That's it. That's all it takes. OAN becomes Trump TV (or ConspiracyUSA, really), and his whole image isn't shattered at all, despite the blowout loss.

    Contrast that with walking away from the table with nothing and it's pretty clear why he won't.
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    A number of recent polls have indicated Biden has a healthy, double-digit national lead over Trump, and several of the surveys have also pointed to close races in states such as Texas and Georgia, where Republican presidential candidates in recent years have been confident of victory.

    A Fox News poll released last week found Biden up by 1 point, 45 percent to 44 percent, over Trump in Texas. Another survey by the network found Trump trailing Biden 47 percent to 45 percent in Georgia.

    Ohio and Iowa are two other more traditional swing states that at the beginning of the year seemed like solid territory for Trump. Now, Biden looks like he can compete in both.

    In Arizona, which no Democratic presidential candidate has won since 1996, Biden won 46 percent in a Fox News poll compared to 42 percent for Trump.

    Arizona is one of six swing states both campaigns are closely eyeing. The other five are Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

    “When reliable polling has you tied or winning in Texas, you expand the map well beyond the six ‘battleground’ states,” said Democratic strategist Christy Setzer. “And the Biden camp shouldn’t psych itself out by playing it safe.”
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...-against-trump
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    I’ll believe it when I see it. Every trump supporter I know still believes the sun shines out of his you know what. Plus like someone else said he’s a narcissist I can’t see him willingly dropping out.


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    Quote Originally Posted by So Nashty View Post
    I’ll believe it when I see it. Every trump supporter I know still believes the sun shines out of his you know what. Plus like someone else said he’s a narcissist I can’t see him willingly dropping out.


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    I'd certainly agree that while someone else would drop out to lessen what is clearly an anchor on pending Senate races and other down-ballot contests, Trump doesn't give a shit about anyone else's careers or prospects. Same with: another might resign to save the country the distraction and misery of whatever slew of hearings and recriminations will come from Bounty-gate. "The good of the country" doesn't make his radar screen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RodrigueGabriel View Post
    538 has Missouri as Trump +2.4 right now, which is a far cry from the +8.5 he had at the end of February.
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    Quote Originally Posted by G1000 View Post
    538 has Missouri as Trump +2.4 right now, which is a far cry from the +8.5 he had at the end of February.
    This is Garin-Hart, so def a D pollster. But yes, seems to be moving quickly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RodrigueGabriel View Post
    This is Garin-Hart, so def a D pollster. But yes, seems to be moving quickly.
    538 are the gold standard, because their model runs averages. I also hold RCP in really high regard, but they don't have a recent Missouri poll. Latest was 6/10-11 at Trump +8.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-7210.html
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    Quote Originally Posted by So Nashty View Post
    I’ll believe it when I see it. Every trump supporter I know still believes the sun shines out of his you know what. Plus like someone else said he’s a narcissist I can’t see him willingly dropping out.


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    Well, that and he won an election while being behind in nearly every poll in November.
    In 1994 I thought I could die in peace...now I'm hungry again.

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