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Thread: Battleground 2020 — Election Polling Discussion

  1. #301
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    I mean, he's clearly not dropping out, but the thread is specific to his polling data. It's not a dumping ground for every inane thing he says. We don't need those, in general. Just ones worth having conversations about.
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    ok I would respectfully disagree that there's no value (if nothing else other than comedic). But on a way more serious note, when part of if not the main argument against sleepy Joe Biden is his cognitive function and or his senility and you have the current president going off the rails every day I think it's relevant. Not the right thread - sure. Not relevant, I'm afraid that if the majority of people in the key states take that attitude that it's just Trump being Trump and ignore it or worse yet accept it we're in for a possible 4 more years of it. Again your rules to play by.

  3. #303
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    No, I get all that. It just doesn't fit a thread about polling.
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    "Everyone says you should be a good loser. If you’re a good loser, you’re a loser."
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    "Never be a spectator of unfairness or stupidity. Seek out argument and disputation for their own sake; the grave will supply plenty of time for silence."
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    ‘It’s a big, big swing’: Trump loses ground with white voters

    Donald Trump is making modest inroads with Latinos. Polls suggest he’s pulling slightly more Black support than in 2016.

    But Trump is tilting at the margins with those groups. His bigger problem is the demographic that sent him to the White House — white voters, whose embrace of Trump appears to be slipping in critical, predominantly white swing states.

    In Minnesota, where the contest between Trump and Joe Biden had seemed to tighten in recent weeks — and where both candidates stumped on Friday — a CBS News/YouGov survey last week had Trump running 2 percentage points behind Biden with white voters, after carrying them by 7 points in 2016. Even among white voters without college degrees — Trump’s base — the president was far short of the margin he put up against Hillary Clinton there.

    It’s the same story in Wisconsin, where Trump won non-college educated white women by 16 percentage points four years ago but is now losing them by 9 percentage points, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll. In Pennsylvania, Biden has now pulled even with Trump among white voters, according to an NBC News/Marist Poll.

    In 2016, white voters cast over 80 percent of the vote in each of the three states, according to exit polls.

    “It’s a big, big swing,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “What [Biden’s] doing among whites is more than offsetting the slippage among non-whites … The recipe is very different this time, right now anyway, in terms of white voters.”
    It’s possible that the focus on Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg’s replacement will help Trump, reminding voters who have drifted away from him what they cared about in 2016. Four years ago, one in five voters — many of them white, social conservatives — said Supreme Court appointments were the most important factor in their vote.

    But Trump is working from a disadvantage this year. There are relatively few undecided voters left to persuade. Democrats are also highly energized about the Supreme Court. And Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the court one month before the midterm elections two year ago did nothing to stop Democrats from steamrolling Trump and the GOP.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...support-418420
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    That's an interesting split. I'd have probably expected to see Gideon way ahead of Collins if it's Biden +12 in the state.
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    Quote Originally Posted by G1000 View Post
    That's an interesting split. I'd have probably expected to see Gideon way ahead of Collins if it's Biden +12 in the state.
    It may very well be that, though. There's thirteen percent to account for here who are, presumably, undecided. Undecides tend to break for the insurgent. Even if only 46% of them do, that's a six-point bum (52).
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    Third parties could play a lesser role in 2020 campaign

    “Green Party candidates in 2000 and 2016 fundamentally changed the course of the 21st century,” said presidential historian Douglas Brinkley of Rice University. “Trump has a terrible electoral map right now. The math is leaning against him. A vital third-party candidate would likely help him tremendously.”

    But third-party candidates are facing hurdles that didn’t exist four years ago, potentially weakening their impact.

    In a court decision last week, the Green Party candidate was barred from appearing on Pennsylvania’s ballot. A flurry of legal challenges will keep significant third-party candidates off the ballot in Wisconsin.

    Three other third parties — the Constitution, Libertarian and American Solidarity parties — have spots on the Wisconsin ballot, but Marquette Law School poll director Charles Franklin said there’s reason to believe the third parties will have less influence than they did in 2016.

    Franklin said recent history shows a falloff in third-party support four years after an election in which the Electoral College result differed from the popular result. Support for the Green Party plummeted in 2004, four years after Ralph Nader’s Green Party bid helped tip the election away from Democrat Al Gore and to Republican George W. Bush.

    “It drove home to both voters and nonvoters alike that we can have very close elections, and they have to consider that in deciding whether to cast a third-party vote or not,” Franklin said.

    Michael Meketa, 26, a registered independent from Johnstown, Pennsylvania, voted in 2016 for Johnson’s “combination of libertarian and smart economic policies” but will opt for Biden this November because of what four years of Trump has wrought.
    https://apnews.com/477f1db3b18163a429ab4b3f418f60d4
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  9. #309
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    In the moment, that's probably a good thing, but the existence of a meaningful third/fourth party is so necessary to break the insanity of bipartisan gridlock.
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    Of course, but this is specific to the moment. Right now, today, we need this to truly be a two-party choice. Third- or fourth-parties only muddy the electorate and make it more likely that Trump is re-elected.
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  13. #313
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  14. #314
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    The fuck? That Ohio poll is a COLOSSAL outlier.
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    Quote Originally Posted by G1000 View Post
    The fuck? That Ohio poll is a COLOSSAL outlier.
    Yeah, but Biden is making creeping progress there. According to FiveThirtyEight, he's improved 44.8 to 45.2 (+0.4) from August 12 to September 16.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    Yeah, but Biden is making creeping progress there. According to FiveThirtyEight, he's improved 44.8 to 45.2 (+0.4) from August 12 to September 16.
    oh no creeping socialism /s

    Ohio actually flipped from toss-up, red to toss-up, blue on the Silver model yesterday. He's been quietly making inroads there for sure.

    What's become of interest to me recently is the insanity in these Senate races. There were a wave of polls yesterday suggesting that there's a real shot that both GA seats, the Graham seat in SC (!), the open seat in KS, and possibly even John Corryn's seat in TX are in play.

    On top of that, favorable polls for IA, ME, NC, and even one showing that McConnell might not be leading by double digits.

    I want some Montana polling, but I know that Schumer's bullish on that seat.
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    "Everyone says you should be a good loser. If you’re a good loser, you’re a loser."
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    "Never be a spectator of unfairness or stupidity. Seek out argument and disputation for their own sake; the grave will supply plenty of time for silence."
    - Christopher Hitchens

  18. #318
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    "Everyone says you should be a good loser. If you’re a good loser, you’re a loser."
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    "Never be a spectator of unfairness or stupidity. Seek out argument and disputation for their own sake; the grave will supply plenty of time for silence."
    - Christopher Hitchens

  19. #319
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  20. #320
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    Eh, I'm not so sure it's that weird. Ohio is the traditional bellwether state, and Iowa is usually right there too.
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