[brooks] Jacob Trouba Didn’t Live Up to Hype in First Rangers Season

The idea was for Jacob Trouba to be the Rangers’ top-pair, matchup right defenseman and on the point with the first power-play unit.

 

That’s why the Blueshirts were willing not only to send last year’s 20th overall pick and Neal Pionk to Winnipeg last June to get Trouba but, more to the point, also to sign the pending restricted free agent to a seven-year contract worth an average of $8 million per.

It didn’t quite work with Skjei, even as they had been good friends for years, since hooking up at the U.S. National Development Program. That would have been the perfect union. But both players had issues of their own and neither had the confidence in his own game to elevate the other.

 

Fox, DeAngelo and Ryan Lindgren all were heavy on the plus-side in goals for and against. Staal was even. Skjei was on for 45-for and 57-against at five-on-five through his 60 games, a minus-12. Trouba: 41 for and 58 against, minus-17.

 

He could be erratic from shift to shift, never mind game to game. He had trouble with his gap and at times seemed off-balance on his skates and off on his rush reads. Trouba was not alone, but had a propensity for yielding the line at a moment’s notice before backing in on his goaltender to the most extreme degree.

 

There were a number of nights, though (and one of them was at the Coliseum against the Islanders in the game after the deadline and the first in which he paired with Smith), when Trouba dominated with his physicality and his edge. There were nights when he wheeled the puck out quickly and supported the rush effectively. Nights when his fearlessness was contagious.

Again, the Rangers thought they were getting a first pair and first power-play unit guy. Trouba was not that, at least not this season. He has a no-move clause that kicks in July 1 (or the equivalent date if the offseason calendar is adjusted), so the Blueshirts would probably listen if someone comes knocking.

 

But the contract commitment makes that unlikely. Even if the Rangers could deal Trouba, chances are they’d be looking for someone just like him in another year.

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No argument here, obviously. Hopefully he rebounds, but he was not good this year.

Not sure how or if they actually paid the Trouba premium with the PP in mind. Deangelo is about the best in the business at QB'ing a PP, they must have had a really low bar set for him going in to this year.

That doesn't even consider Fox, who obviously also has some acumen in that regard. So where does Trouba fit on the PP?

I hated the contract the instant it was released, it was an obvious overpay in salary, exacerbated by the assets given up to acquire him, however, I like what he brings, a certain swagger and legitimacy they're sorely missing otherwise. He's big, he's mean, and he's in great shape.

He was on the whole about league average or slightly above, and that’s not what you hope for when he’s getting paid what he’s getting paid.

Lots of factors likely contributed to his subpar season, all of which have been previously mentioned here.

While I have no doubt he can absolutely be better, hard to see them getting their money’s worth on $56 million.

I do see reasons for optimism though as we all know he is better and more consistent than what he was this season.

Presence of Fox and ADA (for now at least) take offensive pressure off of him. Hoping that he gets partnered with the right guy and settles into a shutdown role, which is how he’s been deployed, and flourishes. While $8million per is a high price for a D in that role, even a premium one, I’d be happy with that. I do believe he can do that and do so to a very high level, given some changes in his circumstances.

The trade talk is ridiculous though.

They aren’t even thinking about moving him a year into his deal, nor should they. They couldn’t hope to move his contract anyway.

I actually really liked Trouba this year. He brought an element that the Rangers haven't had in some time. Yeah, it would be great if he scored more goals next year but if Fox and DeAngelo are putting up points, I'm happy to have a mean dman back there killing people. I'm happy to have him.

Agree with what 7 said, the trade talk is so dumb. Not sure why anyone even bothers to bring it up.

Probably because:

1. He's overpaid

2. He doesn't have an NTC effective r/n

3. The Rangers are stacked on RD

4. There is a salary cap

5. That cap is likely to drop due to 'Rona

I feel like there's enough there to have a conversation over. It wouldn't be the first time a player is traded one year into his deal.

Amnesty buyout, of course, after the league gives teams one or two when the cap goes down.

Cap Hit Calculations

SEASON INITIAL BASE SALARY INITIAL CAP HIT SIGNING BONUS BUYOUT COST POST-BUYOUT EARNINGS SAVINGS CAP HIT (New York Rangers NYR)

2020-21 $2,000,000 $8,000,000 $8,000,000 $1,666,667 $9,666,667 $333,333 $7,666,667

2021-22 $2,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $1,666,667 $7,666,667 $333,333 $7,666,667

2022-23 $6,000,000 $8,000,000 $0 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 $4,333,333 $3,666,667

2023-24 $8,000,000 $8,000,000 $0 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 $6,333,333 $1,666,667

2024-25 $6,000,000 $8,000,000 $0 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 $4,333,333 $3,666,667

2025-26 $6,000,000 $8,000,000 $0 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 $4,333,333 $3,666,667

2026-27 $0 $0 $0 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 -$1,666,667 $1,666,667

2027-28 $0 $0 $0 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 -$1,666,667 $1,666,667

2028-29 $0 $0 $0 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 -$1,666,667 $1,666,667

2029-30 $0 $0 $0 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 -$1,666,667 $1,666,667

2030-31 $0 $0 $0 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 -$1,666,667 $1,666,667

2031-32 $0 $0 $0 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 -$1,666,667 $1,666,667

TOTAL $30,000,000 $48,000,000 $14,000,000 $20,000,000 $34,000,000 $10,000,000 $38,000,004

Probably because:

1. He's overpaid

2. He doesn't have an NTC effective r/n

3. The Rangers are stacked on RD

4. There is a salary cap

5. That cap is likely to drop due to 'Rona

 

I feel like there's enough there to have a conversation over. It wouldn't be the first time a player is traded one year into his deal.

All fair points. But it’s still not going to happen.

It’s worth a conversation as a hypothetical talking point. While I’m almost certain that someone in the front office has said “Hey, what about moving Trouba?”, I doubt that:

A) Any discussion about it has any legs

B) They’ve shopped him

C) Anyone has asked about him

D) They could find a partner willing to take on all or the bulk of that contract.

Cap likely going down makes it harder to move him, IMO.

And just logically, I don’t see them throwing in the towel on him after 1 partial season under not the best circumstances on a new team in a new city at 26 when they’ve not completed constructing this team.

Get what you’re saying Pete. I just can’t see it as being anymore than having been brought up for brought ups sake.

Trouba v. Shattenkirk

Who was the bigger fail? I like Trouba?s game. He?s big and has snarl. Money-wise it?s a ripe contract but he has earned it along the way. Our team is just now finding it?s way forward. Trouba will be just fine.

All fair points. But it’s still not going to happen.

 

It’s worth a conversation as a hypothetical talking point. While I’m almost certain that someone in the front office has said “Hey, what about moving Trouba?”, I doubt that:

A) Any discussion about it has any legs

B) They’ve shopped him

C) Anyone has asked about him

D) They could find a partner willing to take on all or the bulk of that contract.

 

Cap likely going down makes it harder to move him, IMO.

 

And just logically, I don’t see them throwing in the towel on him after 1 partial season under not the best circumstances on a new team in a new city at 26 when they’ve not completed constructing this team.

 

Get what you’re saying Pete. I just can’t see it as being anymore than having been brought up for brought ups sake.

I don't disagree, but what else is there to talk about LOL?

As I said from the beginning - a lot of rangers fans have never seen him play.

His season was “fine”. Still young, still getting better, still learning.

He's exactly the kind of player you need in the playoffs, which this team is on the cusp of. I'm willing to look past his shortcomings for the time being.

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Brooks has a very solid point; you will be in the market for a player like him 5 minutes after you trade him.

This is the central point about Trouba that must underlie any discussion of him. Basically, we are stuck with a 5.5m defenseman at 8m for seven years. It could be worse.

I'd argue that point production for defensemen is strongly influenced by the team philosophy. A defensemen playing for a coach that encourages them to take chances in the offensive zone, pinch, create, etc. is going to generate more chances. If a player knows he's going to get reduced time if he pinches and gives up a 2-1 against, or knows his coach prefers shot-blocking and stifling opportunities in the defensive zone is going to play differently.

https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/last-5-nhl-seasons-defensemen-stats.html

You can always compare defensemen with the Rangers and with other teams.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/y/yandlke01.html

Coyotes and Panthers are better fits for Yandle to get goals and assists. I don't understand why the Rangers would bring in creative defensemen, then kill them for giving up two on ones, and not being physical enough in the defensive zone. Don't go after players if they don't fit into your system, or you are not going to give them the freedom to play their game.

As I said from the beginning - a lot of rangers fans have never seen him play.

 

His season was “fine”. Still young, still getting better, still learning.

He's exactly the kind of player you need in the playoffs, which this team is on the cusp of. I'm willing to look past his shortcomings for the time being.

 

 

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This is the central point about Trouba that must underlie any discussion of him. Basically, we are stuck with a 5.5m defenseman at 8m for seven years. It could be worse.

Agree with most of this, with a few nuances.

All the analytics based player ratings I’ve seen on him put him at around above average. Taking everything into consideration, him having a season like that is not only acceptable when put in context, it’s expected.

People should be patient. It’s not all on him. Some things need to be fixed or improved upon. And while I won’t add more to the pile of malign that is the “system”, Trouba isn’t the type of D who is going to be at his best giving up the blue line so often. He’s dying to stand guys up. Let him be him. They absolutely need a guy who plays the way he likes to, it’s a waste not to let him.

I think he’s better than a $5.5 per D. More like 6.5

Agree with most of this, with a few nuances.

 

All the analytics based player ratings I?ve seen on him put him at around above average. Taking everything into consideration, him having a season like that is not only acceptable when put in context, it?s expected.

 

People should be patient. It?s not all on him. Some things need to be fixed or improved upon. And while I won?t add more to the pile of malign that is the ?system?, Trouba isn?t the type of D who is going to be at his best giving up the blue line so often. He?s dying to stand guys up. Let him be him. They absolutely need a guy who plays the way he likes to, it?s a waste not to let him.

 

 

I think he?s better than a $5.5 per D. More like 6.5

Add in the first... Just a completely bad deal in hindsight.

Spent most of the season playing with Skjei, who was f___ing terrible. Not saying that completely exonerates him (for lack of a better word). But think he was a physical force and played solidly most nights and ate up lots of minutes. Fair to say had they a clue about how the RD would shake out it's a trade and contract they don't make. Still think he's a solid blueliner, ad not the kind of player you give up. Brooks has a very solid point; you will be in the market for a player like him 5 minutes after you trade him.

The only way they'd be in the market for another player like him after trading him would be if Lundkvist busts, which seems unlikely. Otherwise the right side is full with Fox, Lundkvist, and DeAngelo. I personally think he should be traded, even if it means a stop gap RD next season while Lundkvist develops. It's better than 7 more years of paying $8 mil to a position that isn't a need. We have all the RD we need right now at cheaper prices and that money can be spent to address some other more glaring hole. I'd rather give 7 or 8 mil to another scoring winger.

Same.

my take in short is he was just ok which at his price tag is a bad deal. I think if they could move him now before the no trade kicks in for assets they need to plug holes they would. However I don't see it being possible so they'll have to live with it and hope he steps way up .

That's really splitting hairs to to umpteenth degree.

 

Add in the first... Just a completely bad deal in hindsight.

It’s an overpayment. And no way they’ll get full value on it.

We all knew that from the outset.

But this isn’t the Redden deal. He’s a good to very good NHL defenseman. Still a good chance that even if they don’t get full value, they get good value on him.

I mentioned the money simply because he was making 5.5 and had a nice season in his walk year so he has to get a raise cause that’s how it works. That was my point in that.

Just hoping that he finds himself

The only way they'd be in the market for another player like him after trading him would be if Lundkvist busts, which seems unlikely. Otherwise the right side is full with Fox, Lundkvist, and DeAngelo. I personally think he should be traded, even if it means a stop gap RD next season while Lundkvist develops. It's better than 7 more years of paying $8 mil to a position that isn't a need. We have all the RD we need right now at cheaper prices and that money can be spent to address some other more glaring hole. I'd rather give 7 or 8 mil to another scoring winger.

So all 3 RD are below 6’ and 190lbs?

As I said from the beginning - a lot of rangers fans have never seen him play.

 

His season was ?fine?. Still young, still getting better, still learning.

So all 3 RD are below 6’ and 190lbs?

Yeah who cares? Is Fox hindered by his size? Some of the best Dmen in the league are that size, it's 2020. All of our LD are huge anyway so we won't have a small D corps.

Yeah who cares? Is Fox hindered by his size? Some of the best Dmen in the league are that size, it's 2020. All of our LD are huge anyway so we won't have a small D corps.

Sure, it's 2020 and size isn't as important. But looking at the playoffs over the last few years I'd worry whether a right side of Fox, AdA and Lundkvist would be able to hold up against the heavy teams like St Louis, Washington etc. I'd also be concerned that you don't have a single RHD who you'd be comfortable handling tough defensive assignments. Maybe Fox or Lundkvist can be come that guy. But like I said before, we can argue whether Trouba was the right guy and the contract is certainly highly debatable, but you need someone like him the way the D is currently constructed.