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  1. #701
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    Quote Originally Posted by Albatross View Post
    I posted statistics which u dismissed them. U have your own thoughts about the pandemic which u get from Yahoo News and u dismiss anyone who disagrees with u. You donít have any hard data, any studies or articles linked. You just argue cause u think youíre right and everyone else is stupid. I really have no interest discussing this with u any further
    You posted the number of people who died to coronavirus and the population of NYC. You don't see why that makes zero sense?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Albatross View Post
    I posted statistics which u dismissed them. U have your own thoughts about the pandemic which u get from Yahoo News and u dismiss anyone who disagrees with u. You donít have any hard data, any studies or articles linked. You just argue cause u think youíre right and everyone else is stupid. I really have no interest discussing this with u any further
    I dismissed your statistics because you literally calculated death rate the wrong way LOL.

    I posted numerous sources and links in this thread. You haven't, and you never do.

    You're just frustrated because you're on the losing side of this argument.

    Also, Yahoo news is a great aggregator. You should try getting your news from the app. We need the users.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Morphinity View Post
    You posted the number of people who died to coronavirus and the population of NYC. You don't see why that makes zero sense?
    I dont. It showed how the deaths from the virus affected the population of NYC. That’s a statistic. You want to show the death rate among people who are infected? That’s a different statistic. 203K confirmed cases in NYC and 16400 confirmed deaths with makes it at about 8% death rate. Which is surprisingly very high.
    But u have only 2% chance to get infected. What would be the infection rate if the lockdown wasnt in place? Closest we can tell is by looking at Brazil who’s hit hard and didnt have the strict lockdown in place. Rio’s infection rate is at 0.3%!
    Now we can be like Pete and dismiss these statistics in order to justify being couped up at home for over 2 months or we can discuss that that maybe the gov’t overreacted like they usually do when a disaster of any kind happens or about to happen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Albatross View Post
    I posted statistics which u dismissed them. U have your own thoughts about the pandemic which u get from Yahoo News and u dismiss anyone who disagrees with u. You don’t have any hard data, any studies or articles linked. You just argue cause u think you’re right and everyone else is stupid. I really have no interest discussing this with u any further
    I have a friend who is a fairly prominent conservative pundit. He has been jumping up and down and stamping his feet on social media, saying "This is all bullshit." I'll say you what I said to him. I think it is somewhat of a rhetorical sucker punch to look at where we are now in terms of transmission, hospitalizations, and deaths and say, "see, it's not that big a problem. Everybody overreacted," without saying specifically what you would have done differently and how you think that would have affected both the health and economic outcomes for better and worse and over what timeline (with the caveat that none of us are actually epidemiologists).

    What would you have changed? Stay-at-home orders? Would you have declared more businesses essential? How much longer would it have then taken to flatten the curve? Would any cities other than NY have exceeded hospital capacity? What else would have happened in NYC at a higher need rate? By allowing a higher transmission and death rate, would more Americans have voluntarily withdrawn from the economy out of fear? What says you could have controlled the pandemic at all after a certain point of letting it roll? What is an acceptable death toll? I could think of a lot more questions.

    To just say, only a tenth of a percent of people died, therefore governors overreacted, seems like an unproven hypothesis rather than a real argument. Couldn't one could just as easily use that statistic to reach a superficial conclusion that the NYS stay-at-home orders were wildly successful because only a tenth of a percent of NY's population died?

    So here's something to look at. For better or worse, Sweden has set itself up to be a control that allows the rest of the world to compare its COVID reponses against. They took some measures to close - banning gatherings of more than 50 plus universities and high schools, but not much else. They were looking for the shortest distance to herd immunity.

    Norway sits right next door (not quite sure why, but the seemingly placid, peace-loving Nordic peoples seem to detest each other) and had aggressive closing measures, not unlike many states here. The per capita death rate in Sweden from COVID is 10X higher than that in Norway. So - if you can extrapolate to the US a 10-fold increase in deaths if we went Sweden's route - you get to a million deaths nationally and 200k in NYC since it began. That gets you over 1 percent in NYC and .33% of the nation. Is that an acceptable level? Is that still overreacting? What is the societal cost of that many more dead?

    To go a step further, Sweden's relatively hands off approach may not have delivered the herd immunity levels they were looking for. Testing in Stockholm at the end of April indicated that only 7.35% of citizens carried antibodies, meaning there is a lot of transmission and death (and economic pain) still down the road. (Would love to see how much immunity has increased in the ensuing month.) Maybe worse, keeping the economy open may not yield a huge dividend. Sweden and Norway are projected to be within a couple of points of each other in terms of GDP drop for the year. (Norway may have had a more aggressive safety net. There are probably some differences not covered in this article, but it's a place to start.) https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...-than-norways/

    So, do you see my point? It seems to me a highly incomplete argument just to look at the numbers now and say everybody overreacted. That perspective completely internalizes both the benefits gained and costs averted by the closing measures without giving any credit for them. If you think that governors overreacted, what would you have done differently and how would that have changed the outcomes both for better and worse?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Albatross View Post
    You’re asking the wrong question.
    No, I'm not. You said we overreacted based on the number of deaths. I'm asking you at what point would it have been an acceptable number of deaths to justify the actions we took.

    If the question makes you uncomfortable, good. It damn well should, because that's the point, and it's absolutely the question you need to answer to feel in any way comfortable making a statement to say that the actions we took to come to the number we got weren't justified.
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    Quote Originally Posted by RodrigueGabriel View Post
    I have a friend who is a fairly prominent conservative pundit. He has been jumping up and down and stamping his feet on social media, saying "This is all bullshit." I'll say you what I said to him. I think it is somewhat of a rhetorical sucker punch to look at where we are now in terms of transmission, hospitalizations, and deaths and say, "see, it's not that big a problem. Everybody overreacted," without saying specifically what you would have done differently and how you think that would have affected both the health and economic outcomes for better and worse and over what timeline (with the caveat that none of us are actually epidemiologists).

    What would you have changed? Stay-at-home orders? Would you have declared more businesses essential? How much longer would it have then taken to flatten the curve? Would any cities other than NY have exceeded hospital capacity? What else would have happened in NYC at a higher need rate? By allowing a higher transmission and death rate, would more Americans have voluntarily withdrawn from the economy out of fear? What says you could have controlled the pandemic at all after a certain point of letting it roll? What is an acceptable death toll? I could think of a lot more questions.

    To just say, only a tenth of a percent of people died, therefore governors overreacted, seems like an unproven hypothesis rather than a real argument. Couldn't one could just as easily use that statistic to reach a superficial conclusion that the NYS stay-at-home orders were wildly successful because only a tenth of a percent of NY's population died?

    So here's something to look at. For better or worse, Sweden has set itself up to be a control that allows the rest of the world to compare its COVID reponses against. They took some measures to close - banning gatherings of more than 50 plus universities and high schools, but not much else. They were looking for the shortest distance to herd immunity.

    Norway sits right next door (not quite sure why, but the seemingly placid, peace-loving Nordic peoples seem to detest each other) and had aggressive closing measures, not unlike many states here. The per capita death rate in Sweden from COVID is 10X higher than that in Norway. So - if you can extrapolate to the US a 10-fold increase in deaths if we went Sweden's route - you get to a million deaths nationally and 200k in NYC since it began. That gets you over 1 percent in NYC and .33% of the nation. Is that an acceptable level? Is that still overreacting? What is the societal cost of that many more dead?

    To go a step further, Sweden's relatively hands off approach may not have delivered the herd immunity levels they were looking for. Testing in Stockholm at the end of April indicated that only 7.35% of citizens carried antibodies, meaning there is a lot of transmission and death (and economic pain) still down the road. (Would love to see how much immunity has increased in the ensuing month.) Maybe worse, keeping the economy open may not yield a huge dividend. Sweden and Norway are projected to be within a couple of points of each other in terms of GDP drop for the year. (Norway may have had a more aggressive safety net. There are probably some differences not covered in this article, but it's a place to start.) https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...-than-norways/

    So, do you see my point? It seems to me a highly incomplete argument just to look at the numbers now and say everybody overreacted. That perspective completely internalizes both the benefits gained and costs averted by the closing measures without giving any credit for them. If you think that governors overreacted, what would you have done differently and how would that have changed the outcomes both for better and worse?
    This is way better said than my dumb ass can formulate.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RodrigueGabriel View Post
    I have a friend who is a fairly prominent conservative pundit. He has been jumping up and down and stamping his feet on social media, saying "This is all bullshit." I'll say you what I said to him. I think it is somewhat of a rhetorical sucker punch to look at where we are now in terms of transmission, hospitalizations, and deaths and say, "see, it's not that big a problem. Everybody overreacted," without saying specifically what you would have done differently and how you think that would have affected both the health and economic outcomes for better and worse and over what timeline (with the caveat that none of us are actually epidemiologists).

    What would you have changed? Stay-at-home orders? Would you have declared more businesses essential? How much longer would it have then taken to flatten the curve? Would any cities other than NY have exceeded hospital capacity? What else would have happened in NYC at a higher need rate? By allowing a higher transmission and death rate, would more Americans have voluntarily withdrawn from the economy out of fear? What says you could have controlled the pandemic at all after a certain point of letting it roll? What is an acceptable death toll? I could think of a lot more questions.

    To just say, only a tenth of a percent of people died, therefore governors overreacted, seems like an unproven hypothesis rather than a real argument. Couldn't one could just as easily use that statistic to reach a superficial conclusion that the NYS stay-at-home orders were wildly successful because only a tenth of a percent of NY's population died?

    So here's something to look at. For better or worse, Sweden has set itself up to be a control that allows the rest of the world to compare its COVID reponses against. They took some measures to close - banning gatherings of more than 50 plus universities and high schools, but not much else. They were looking for the shortest distance to herd immunity.

    Norway sits right next door (not quite sure why, but the seemingly placid, peace-loving Nordic peoples seem to detest each other) and had aggressive closing measures, not unlike many states here. The per capita death rate in Sweden from COVID is 10X higher than that in Norway. So - if you can extrapolate to the US a 10-fold increase in deaths if we went Sweden's route - you get to a million deaths nationally and 200k in NYC since it began. That gets you over 1 percent in NYC and .33% of the nation. Is that an acceptable level? Is that still overreacting? What is the societal cost of that many more dead?

    To go a step further, Sweden's relatively hands off approach may not have delivered the herd immunity levels they were looking for. Testing in Stockholm at the end of April indicated that only 7.35% of citizens carried antibodies, meaning there is a lot of transmission and death (and economic pain) still down the road. (Would love to see how much immunity has increased in the ensuing month.) Maybe worse, keeping the economy open may not yield a huge dividend. Sweden and Norway are projected to be within a couple of points of each other in terms of GDP drop for the year. (Norway may have had a more aggressive safety net. There are probably some differences not covered in this article, but it's a place to start.) https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...-than-norways/

    So, do you see my point? It seems to me a highly incomplete argument just to look at the numbers now and say everybody overreacted. That perspective completely internalizes both the benefits gained and costs averted by the closing measures without giving any credit for them. If you think that governors overreacted, what would you have done differently and how would that have changed the outcomes both for better and worse?
    Im not a conservative pundit so i dont have any skin in the game, so I don’t care about the politics of it. I saw the numbers and they made me think. It is true that the numbers are where they are because of the shutdown but mu question was what would the numbers be if there wasnt such quarantine?
    I think all retail businesses should’ve been kept open. I really dont see how keeping food stores and liquor stores open is ok but all others are not. Why did i have to stand 45 mins outside to get into the bank because they were letting only one person in at a time when a grocery store across thr street was packed with shoppers? This is the end point i was getting to.
    Good example of Sweden snd Norway. I’d look more into it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by G1000 View Post
    No, I'm not. You said we overreacted based on the number of deaths. I'm asking you at what point would it have been an acceptable number of deaths to justify the actions we took.

    If the question makes you uncomfortable, good. It damn well should, because that's the point, and it's absolutely the question you need to answer to feel in any way comfortable making a statement to say that the actions we took to come to the number we got weren't justified.
    The question is was the response appropriate with such low percentage of deaths per capita in NYC? I think, as usual, the government overreacted and we yet to see the consequences of this overreaction.

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    There's actually quite a bit of good news today on the COVID front.

    First - Italian doctors believe that the coronavirus has become significantly less severe in terms of symptoms.

    COVID-19 is losing its potency and no longer clinically exists in Italy, a senior Italian doctor has claimed.

    Dr Alberto Zangrillo, the head of Milan's San Raffaele Hospital in the hard-hit Lombardy region, said the new coronavirus has become much less lethal, with newly infected patients having weaker symptoms than a couple of months ago.

    The comments caused a storm in Italy, a country that is slowly emerging from one of the strictest lockdowns in the world, with the president of the scientific body that advises the government saying he was "baffled" at the claim.

    A study conducted at the San Raffaele hospital found that the number of viruses present in people who tested positive decreased significantly between March and May.
    Second, the data thus far shows no spike in cases from school reopenings.

    In the last six weeks more than 20 countries have started to reopen schools as they slowly gain control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Several more countries—including England and South Africa—will open their school gates next week. Reopenings are usually for a few age groups only—often younger children—and not always in every part of the country. They are generally accompanied by mandated hygiene and social distancing measures and in many places test and trace systems were implemented ahead of school reopening.

    Countries that have reopened schools after passing the peak of the epidemic show no immediate spike in new cases so far
    On average, countries reopened schools 25 to 30 days after the peak in new cases. Of the twenty countries that have reopened, only three—Madagascar, Czechia, and Vietnam—look as if there may have been any change in the trend of new daily cases when schools reopened.
    It's probably too early to put our eggs in that Italy basket (as we know that the Asian and European strains are different enough, and we know that good science needs to be repeatable), but that's a heck of a good sign if it holds up to peer review.
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    We’re all longing for good news. This is good news.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Albatross View Post
    We’re all longing for good news. This is good news.
    I think we all just need a win here.
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    That is indeed good news, but probably too late. It's done its damage in both lives and dollars. We live in a different world, now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dunny View Post
    That is indeed good news, but probably too late. It's done its damage in both lives and dollars. We live in a different world, now.
    I'm pretty sure everyone doing this work would absolutely love to wave a magic want and make the virus become less aggressive three months earlier than it did. Unfortunately, viruses don't care about the havoc they wreak on systems they don't understand.
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    It really amazes me that someone can irk you so much and you just want to get one over on that person so bad that you re-post a deleted post hours later. Extremely mature.

    Here's a pro tip: if you notice one of your posts mysteriously disappears, it was probably deleted. Don't re-post it.

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    I'm going to remind everyone to revisit the Politics forum-specific rules. We've been rather lenient recently. We won't continue to be. Keep up the childish back and forth, and thread bans and/or infractions will follow. Thank you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by G1000 View Post
    There's actually quite a bit of good news today on the COVID front.

    First - Italian doctors believe that the coronavirus has become significantly less severe in terms of symptoms.



    Second, the data thus far shows no spike in cases from school reopenings.



    It's probably too early to put our eggs in that Italy basket (as we know that the Asian and European strains are different enough, and we know that good science needs to be repeatable), but that's a heck of a good sign if it holds up to peer review.
    Some say the viral load is a thing, the higher your concentration of virus exposed the worse off you would be, which would explain how some very healthy doctors died when they didn't have PPE at the beginning of this. The more UV light outside the lower the viral load spread

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