Stats Don't Lie — We're Sellers

It was always going to take a lottery miracle to get LaFreniere

It's happened before

It's happened before

not to the rangers. we never had #1

It's happened before

Yes, it has

Just not thinking it will happen again... 2 years in a row.

They still are very likely to end up with a pick in the top-10. And it’s a good draft to pick high.

Yes, it has

 

Just not thinking it will happen again... 2 years in a row.

 

They still are very likely to end up with a pick in the top-10. And it’s a good draft to pick high.

and they'll pick another Jessiman or McIlrath

and they'll pick another Jessiman or McIlrath

Well I hope not

and they'll pick another Jessiman or McIlrath

yee of little faith.

or Lias...

P.S. They're six points out of the final wild card with a game in hand.

And playing their best hockey of the season. Things are trending up and I'd be surprised to see us in a position to sell at this point.

And playing their best hockey of the season. Things are trending up and I'd be surprised to see us in a position to sell at this point.

If this is their best, they're definitely sellers.

Uh... They're on a 1 game win streak and 5-5 over their last 10.

 

If this is their best, they're definitely sellers.

They just won 3 out of 4 and and beat 2 very good teams while doing it and scored 5 or 6 goals in all three games. They're absolutely on fire at home and play 8 of their next 10 games at home and have finally started to show more of an ability to limit shots and play a little defense. Also Shesterkin is now a factor, which gives us a better chance to win. This team is going to be in the thick of the playoff race. They're not winning the cup, but I don't think they'll be selling at the deadline.

They just won 3 out of 4 and and beat 2 very good teams while doing it and scored 5 or 6 goals in all three games. They're absolutely on fire at home and play 8 of their next 10 games at home and have finally started to show more of an ability to limit shots and play a little defense. Also Shesterkin is now a factor, which gives us a better chance to win. This team is going to be in the thick of the playoff race. They're not winning the cup, but I don't think they'll be selling at the deadline.

The beat 2 good teams but lost to 3 good teams and 1 great team.

Scoring has never been the problem.

This team isn't good enough not to sell.

They’re a .500 team, give or take.

They need to be selling, though a bit more selectively.

What I really mean is that our defensive system is starting to finally hit its stride and turn things around. We have bled shots all season, however over the last 7 games the number of shots we have allowed have been 31(Edm), 29(Cal), 27(Van), 32(Col), 49(NJ), 29(STL), and 34(NYI). Other than the Devils, those are all good teams. We had averaged 36 shots allowed per game prior to those games and during those games we have averaged 33 shots allowed. Remove the Devils game and it's 30 shots allowed per game over 6 games all against teams currently sitting in a playoff spot with at least 54 points.

We outshot our opponent three times in those 7 games, something we only did 9 times in the first 38 games of the season, mostly against terrible opponents. This is the best hockey we have played all season, even if all of the games didn't result in wins. We are actually starting to play better hockey and play Quinn's system the way he envisions it. If this trend continues we won't just be in the race, we'll be in the playoffs. It's a small sample size for sure, but it's the most recent sample we have to work with. Whether it continues remains to be seen.

What I really mean is that our defensive system is starting to finally hit its stride and turn things around. We have bled shots all season, however over the last 7 games the number of shots we have allowed have been 31(Edm), 29(Cal), 27(Van), 32(Col), 49(NJ), 29(STL), and 34(NYI). Other than the Devils, those are all good teams. We had averaged 36 shots allowed per game prior to those games and during those games we have averaged 33 shots allowed. Remove the Devils game and it's 30 shots allowed per game over 6 games all against teams currently sitting in a playoff spot with at least 54 points.

 

We outshot our opponent three times in those 7 games, something we only did 9 times in the first 38 games of the season, mostly against terrible opponents. This is the best hockey we have played all season, even if all of the games didn't result in wins. We are actually starting to play better hockey and play Quinn's system the way he envisions it. If this trend continues we won't just be in the race, we'll be in the playoffs. It's a small sample size for sure, but it's the most recent sample we have to work with. Whether it continues remains to be seen.

That's selective stat measuring and the fact that they gave up 49 to a horrible Devil's team and 34 to an Islander team that's not very good offensively (average 29 shots a game usually) flies in the face of this theory. In fact, the shot totals we have up for the other teams you're noting are in line with their league averages. Which makes us... Very middling.

Again, this very well be their best hockey. And it's not great.

Next 5 games are the key. They need 9/10 points, which is possible as it's the Islanders twice, Red Wings twice and CBJ.

Then a couple tough ones on the road then two more easy ones at home, and then three shitty teams on the road.

It could make for some interesting decisions.

Next 5 games are the key. They need 9/10 points, which is possible as it's the Islanders twice, Red Wings twice and CBJ.

 

Then a couple tough ones on the road then two more easy ones at home, and then three shitty teams on the road.

 

It could make for some interesting decisions.

That Islander game was an anomaly for them.

That's selective stat measuring and the fact that they gave up 49 to a horrible Devil's team and 34 to an Islander team that's not very good offensively (average 29 shots a game usually) flies in the face of this theory. In fact, the shot totals we have up for the other teams you're noting are in line with their league averages. Which makes us... Very middling.

 

Again, this very well be their best hockey. And it's not great.

I'd beg to differ on one critical thing: this may very well be their best hockey, and if that's good enough to take points from teams like the Avs and the Islanders in the fashion we did, then that's damn good progress and something to hang our hats on in a season where we knew we'd have some growing pains.

It's the kind of thing Quinn should nurture and strive for on a consistent basis - a glimpse of the future so to speak.

I just don't see them as locks beating anyone but the Red Wings.

 

That Islander game was an anomaly for them.

Probably not, no, it's a tall task no matter the opponent. But I do see a path, it's a path back in to the conversation though. Even if they take all 10 they'll likely still be sitting 2 or 3 points out.

We need to be near perfect for the next three or four weeks to really say we're in it. It's not impossible - there's always one team that rises from the ashes to be in the conversation every year. Some do better than others (lookin at you, STL, CAR), but there's always one. It's just not something we should expect.

Gotta be tough on the players, too. Guys like Kreider, Strome, and Fast must be in whiplash mode with every point gained or lost.

Uh... They're on a 1 game win streak and 5-5 over their last 10.

 

If this is their best, they're definitely sellers.

They're a wish of a playoff team and frankly Shesty 2 starts were rather ordinary. He's about as good as the other 2.

 

The beat 2 good teams but lost to 3 good teams and 1 great team.

 

Scoring has never been the problem.

 

This team isn't good enough not to sell.

Bingo, Bango, Bongo!!

The Rangers are only 5 points behind Florida, but they're also only 8 points ahead of Ottawa. It's stacked tight down there! I think we're #22 in the league as of today. That gives us #10 currently overall in this year's draft. If we can obtain another #1, and maybe sell off some of our soon to be free agents, we may be able to load the pipeline up even more in this upcoming draft. From what the analysts are saying it's shaping up to be a good one.

Technically speaking, there's nothing stopping them from selling and still being a potential wildcard team. That's likely to be the case regardless of what they do. Does anyone honestly believe this team is a lottery club? I'd argue that's just as likely/unlikely as them being a winning playoff club.

Oh absolutely Phil!! In a perfect world that's exactly what I'd like to see. I've been debating all along that guys like Georgiev, Kreider and D'Angelo would be an addition by subtraction. In return for those guys, we could possibly get some solid pieces to what the team actually needs, and we can even take a shot at the playoffs.

Fact is, and I know you know this...we can't re-sign everyone. And even though there are guys to consider resigning (Strome-term depending, Fast, yeah I've come full circle on him ;))...I think the rest we'd be better without...but that's just me.

This team in my opinion needs more size, physicality/toughness, and better defensive play going forward. Georgiev, Kreider and D'Angelo are very valuable assets right now that we can use to obtain a good supply of needs to this team.