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Thread: Stats Don't Lie — We're Sellers

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    Stats Don't Lie — We're Sellers

    With that Western Canada debacle, our playoff chances this season are rapidly slipping away.


    We're 7 points out of the wildcard
    11 points out of third in the division
    5 points from the bottom 3 in the league


    We're sitting at just a 9% chance of even making the playoffs.

    Our next seven games are against the top two teams in the Central, three against the Islanders, one against the equally dismal Devils, and one against the surprisingly still-in-it Jackets. 5 real tough contests, and two potential traps. Let's also get this out of the way: we've got the fourth hardest schedule for the rest of the season, largely because the Metro is pretty damn good, and we're pretty damn average to bad.

    Even with a few things breaking our way, and a few not (looking at you, hand of Lemieux) - this one is probably insurmountable. Statistically....we're officially sellers. It's probably time to re-boot Tankathon and start your simulations, because we're sitting comfortably in 25th place in the league, and precariously close to 29th in the league - a spot that would nearly guarantee us one of Lafreniere, Byfield, Holtz, Raymond, or Lundell.

    Parity is a cruel mistress, but as many posters have noted - myself included - there's a lot to be excited about for next year, and frankly, even the rest of this one to see these kids take bigger roles, more ice time, and keep growing their game. But for 2019-20? It's time to list the goods, makes the moves, break out Steve's badge again, and hope the balls fall in our favor.
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    This has been a foregone conclusion all year.

    Their record would eventually fall in line with every underlying stat... They all say the team isn't good.

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    They say they're horrible, actually. Frankly, it's a win-win, even if they lose. This draft is incredibly strong up top.


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    Playoffs were a super long-shot to begin with. Selling assets with the youngest roster in the league was almost a certainty.

    While a step forward would have been nice, another high pick won’t kill them.
    Still a lot of hockey left , and still on pace for mid-80’s in terms of points.

    We will see

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    Not throwing in the towel for sure yet, but the picture should be pretty clear after the next 7 games as you've said. It might be clear before then, if they lose the next, say, 3 games.

    In the unlikely event they rattle off 5 or 6 wins during this stretch, is that enough to change anyone's mind?

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    nope.

    Can't even picture it to be honest. They haven't shown that consistency or anything close to it yet.

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    I severely disappointed by the lack of stats, based on the title. This seems to be based off the eye test.
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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    Not throwing in the towel for sure yet, but the picture should be pretty clear after the next 7 games as you've said. It might be clear before then, if they lose the next, say, 3 games.

    In the unlikely event they rattle off 5 or 6 wins during this stretch, is that enough to change anyone's mind?
    No.

    They need to move their UFAs and get something for them. Keeping them for a playoff run would be the worst possible outcome.

    Only thing one could hope for is that they get a prospect for Kreider that's ready to play now... Bracco from the Leafs, for example.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    No.

    They need to move their UFAs and get something for them. Keeping them for a playoff run would be the worst possible outcome.

    Only thing one could hope for is that they get a prospect for Kreider that's ready to play now... Bracco from the Leafs, for example.
    Yup

    Playoffs are almost certainly a no go and even if they made it, they’d be bounced in the 1st round

    And agree that it’s now time to start getting more “help me now” assets if possible

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    I'm hoping Shesty is the ace in the hole that can get them a string of wins. He could be our Binnington. I know the chances are super slim but I'm still holding on to some hope. Having our young guys get any playoff experience is imo super beneficial.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RangersIn7 View Post
    Yup

    Playoffs are almost certainly a no go and even if they made it, they’d be bounced in the 1st round

    And agree that it’s now time to start getting more “help me now” assets if possible
    I think one of the things we learned w/Trouba is that assets are...well...assets. Having extra 1st rounders doesn't mean you gotta use em.

    I'd hope they're aggressive with the draft capital they collect for Kreider and whomever else gets moved. In a perfect world, you figure out the "Forsberg for Erat" version of the Kreider trade, I guess, but that seems unlikely. In a more realistic scenario, they walk with a Lemieux-ish level prospect and a 1st, and figure out this year's version of the Trouba trade.
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    Quote Originally Posted by CBrowningPI View Post
    I'm hoping Shesty is the ace in the hole that can get them a string of wins. He could be our Binnington. I know the chances are super slim but I'm still holding on to some hope. Having our young guys get any playoff experience is imo super beneficial.
    Kakko, Chytil, Kravtsov, and Shesterkin will all get playoff experience this year.

    In Hartford.
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    Quote Originally Posted by G1000 View Post
    Kakko, Chytil, Kravtsov, and Shesterkin will all get playoff experience this year.

    In Hartford.
    if shesterkin is up the rest of the season, they might not make the playoffs
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    We've still got a lot of holes in our roster and some contracts to expire in the next year or two. Decide what veteran presence you need, and go for draft picks and prospects.
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    Quote Originally Posted by G1000 View Post
    I think one of the things we learned w/Trouba is that assets are...well...assets. Having extra 1st rounders doesn't mean you gotta use em.

    I'd hope they're aggressive with the draft capital they collect for Kreider and whomever else gets moved. In a perfect world, you figure out the "Forsberg for Erat" version of the Kreider trade, I guess, but that seems unlikely. In a more realistic scenario, they walk with a Lemieux-ish level prospect and a 1st, and figure out this year's version of the Trouba trade.
    I’m just saying they are at the point where the pipeline is pretty strong and they’re likely to get another high pick this year. If it’s possible in any deals they make moving forward, getting back assets that are likely to make an impact sooner rather than later.

    Focus should shift a little. More towards young players already in the NHL or a prospect that is ready as opposed to some kid that’s in junior and won’t be contributing for several seasons

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    Quote Originally Posted by josh View Post
    if shesterkin is up the rest of the season, they might not make the playoffs
    Good point, but they can sign Wall soon..

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    Quote Originally Posted by fletch View Post
    We've still got a lot of holes in our roster and some contracts to expire in the next year or two. Decide what veteran presence you need, and go for draft picks and prospects.
    I'd normally agree with you, but we have, I think, one hole on the 2nd line, 2 on the 3rd and an entire fourth. 7 defenders (assuming you count Smith) and 2 keepers under contract. ~17m in cap space assuming a 1.5m cap raise.

    Given the amount of defenders on the roster and the likelihood of Miller, Lundkvist, Rykov, Reunanen, and maybe even Robertson pushing for roster spots next year, something HAS to give there.
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    Quote Originally Posted by G1000 View Post
    I'd normally agree with you, but we have, I think, one hole on the 2nd line, 2 on the 3rd and an entire fourth. 7 defenders (assuming you count Smith) and 2 keepers under contract. ~17m in cap space assuming a 1.5m cap raise.

    Given the amount of defenders on the roster and the likelihood of Miller, Lundkvist, Rykov, Reunanen, and maybe even Robertson pushing for roster spots next year, something HAS to give there.
    filling spots, not lines

    Panarin - Zibanejad - Kakko
    Chytil - Strome - Buchnevich
    Lemieux - Howden - Kravtsov


    Not that many holes. Need patience for the guys to develop
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    Quote Originally Posted by RangersIn7 View Post
    I’m just saying they are at the point where the pipeline is pretty strong and they’re likely to get another high pick this year. If it’s possible in any deals they make moving forward, getting back assets that are likely to make an impact sooner rather than later.

    Focus should shift a little. More towards young players already in the NHL or a prospect that is ready as opposed to some kid that’s in junior and won’t be contributing for several seasons
    Yeah, I hear you. I agree with you too. I'm having some trouble seeing the match, though. You're probably looking at the 16 or 17 drafts for that kind of player, and the guys who I would be psyched about are on teams that won't be trading with us.

    The best scenario I think I've got so far that looks kinda like "young guy already in the show" or "primed to break out" is Jordan Kyrou. Maybe we can squeeze Dallas for Dellandrea or Robertson? Maybe Kaut, though I gather he's having a rough go of things recently.

    If Florida stays in it, Denisenko or Heponiemi are both interesting in a Kreider deal.

    There's a potentially vomit-inducing world where Kreider lands on the Island for Wahlstrom...

    edit - throwing one more out there. The Wild are only four points out of the playoffs as of this post, and they need both a goalie and a hair more scoring. Can't help but wonder if a Kreider+Georgiev deal makes them think twice about including Kaprizov in the mix.
    Last edited by G1000; 01-06-2020 at 10:19 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by josh View Post
    filling spots, not lines

    Panarin - Zibanejad - Kakko
    Chytil - Strome - Buchnevich
    Lemieux - Howden - Kravtsov


    Not that many holes. Need patience for the guys to develop
    Ah, I'm looking at it before RFA signings and promotions, which would remove Strome, Lemieux, and Kravtsov from your calculus.
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