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Thread: Nancy Pelosi Announces Formal Impeachment Inquiry into Trump

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    Nancy Pelosi Announces Formal Impeachment Inquiry into Trump

    "Everyone says you should be a good loser. If you’re a good loser, you’re a loser."
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    "Never be a spectator of unfairness or stupidity. Seek out argument and disputation for their own sake; the grave will supply plenty of time for silence."
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    At this point, given the timing, Republicans might support it so that they can try to win back moderate voters who they might have lost if Trump ran again.

    I don't see a scenario where this ends up as a win for Dems. They're giving GOP a free out to not have to back Trump again AND giving them the "we impeached Trump" card to play too.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Future View Post
    At this point, given the timing, Republicans might support it so that they can try to win back moderate voters who they might have lost if Trump ran again.

    I don't see a scenario where this ends up as a win for Dems. They're giving GOP a free out to not have to back Trump again AND giving them the "we impeached Trump" card to play too.
    Months and months of dominating the political news cycle, airing every last sock of the GOPs dirty laundry.
    Affirmation of the heavily hinted bits of the Mueller report that suggested Trump willingly sought out and accepted the aid of foreign actors to win an election
    The reaffirmation of faith in our intelligence groups
    The ability to run on all the findings

    There's a LOT of win here.
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    Quote Originally Posted by G1000 View Post
    Months and months of dominating the political news cycle, airing every last sock of the GOPs dirty laundry.
    Affirmation of the heavily hinted bits of the Mueller report that suggested Trump willingly sought out and accepted the aid of foreign actors to win an election
    The reaffirmation of faith in our intelligence groups
    The ability to run on all the findings

    There's a LOT of win here.
    The win is anti-Trump. If he's impeached...he's not running again, so it doesn't matter. The GOP members who vote for the impeachment - which, you'd need - can then leverage the same wins and play some "justice over party" rhetoric.

    If I'm Paul Ryan, for example, I'm leading the GOP charge to impeach Trump and then running for president with little time for any other candidate to build a campaign. He'd get a ton of moderate votes if he's running against Bernie or Warren, and he can play the "Joe Biden" is senile card otherwise. Plus, he can have some modest proposal on gun control, adopt small pieces of the Green New Deal and just in general operate against Trump talking points.

    Impeaching Trump, win or lose, paves the way for more "legitimate" GOP candidates in 2020.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Future View Post
    The win is anti-Trump. If he's impeached...he's not running again, so it doesn't matter. The GOP members who vote for the impeachment - which, you'd need - can then leverage the same wins and play some "justice over party" rhetoric.

    If I'm Paul Ryan, for example, I'm leading the GOP charge to impeach Trump and then running for president with little time for any other candidate to build a campaign. He'd get a ton of moderate votes if he's running against Bernie or Warren, and he can play the "Joe Biden" is senile card otherwise. Plus, he can have some modest proposal on gun control, adopt small pieces of the Green New Deal and just in general operate against Trump talking points.

    Impeaching Trump, win or lose, paves the way for more "legitimate" GOP candidates in 2020.
    That's potentially true, but rather unlikely. The "moderate GOP" is a goner - any impeachment proceeding will expose that. The "moderate" bloc of influence-able voters is small - that's a myth that's gotta go.

    Drag this out. Drag it through the mud and right up to the election.
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    This dude's been committing various criminal acts since he entered office.

    He belongs in jail.

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    Now playing:

    Criminal - Fiona Apple
    Peaches - The Presidents of the United States (this feels ripe for a parody right about now)
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    Quote Originally Posted by G1000 View Post
    That's potentially true, but rather unlikely. The "moderate GOP" is a goner - any impeachment proceeding will expose that. The "moderate" bloc of influence-able voters is small - that's a myth that's gotta go.

    Drag this out. Drag it through the mud and right up to the election.
    Indeed. The path through is with new voters, not old ones. And that demographic is overwhelmingly blue, which is yet another reason to support impeachment. It solidifies a future base who are ravenous for accountability thus far largely absent from this Administration and this Congress moreover.
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    Quote Originally Posted by G1000 View Post
    That's potentially true, but rather unlikely. The "moderate GOP" is a goner - any impeachment proceeding will expose that. The "moderate" bloc of influence-able voters is small - that's a myth that's gotta go.

    Drag this out. Drag it through the mud and right up to the election.
    That article says that 40% of voters refuse to identify with a party, and are "all over the ideological map," so I think that 2.4% number is largely undersold...But that's still 6 million votes, and who knows what percentage of that is in swing states.

    But, besides the math of it, I don't buy that the "moderate GOP" is a goner. That person can, all at once, be Pro border control, gun legislation, climate regulation, defense spending, lower taxes, have Christian values AND be anti-Trump. That's a very difficult person for someone like Bernie to beat, because he's not going to get far right votes anyways.

    If Dems want to drag out the impeachment and make it dominate the new cycle, then they're just giving more free airtime to a GOP candidate talking point without actually building their own foundation to win. I don't think that's a very strong position to be in.

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    Impeaching Trump On Russia Was Unpopular. Will Ukraine Be Different?

    This time is different. Although the story is still unfolding as I write this, impeachment is, at a minimum, highly plausible. And if Pelosi wants impeachment — as she reportedly does — she can probably get it. Democrats have a fairly comfortable majority in the House and they have been relatively unified under Pelosi. Betting markets, which had been bearish on impeachment, now assign around a 50 percent chance that Trump will be impeached (but not necessarily removed from office) during his first term.

    But Democrats had better hope that something else is different this time too: public opinion. Despite Trump being quite unpopular, and despite the public largely buying Democrats’ interpretation of the fact pattern on Russia — most polls find that a majority of the public thinks that Trump sought to obstruct the investigation into Russia, for instance — impeachment was a soundly unpopular proposition.

    In the table below, I’ve compiled data on all polls from PollingReport.com, a compendium of high-quality telephone surveys, on whether the public thinks Trump should be impeached or at least that Congress should begin impeachment proceedings.1 And despite the slightly different question wordings — you could favor holding hearings on impeaching Trump but not actually favor his impeachment per se2 — these polls have tended to produce similar results: Impeachment was an unpopular option through the entirety of the Russia investigation process.

    Why this gap has persisted isn’t entirely clear. Pelosi’s reluctance on impeachment undoubtedly dissuaded some Democratic voters from getting on board; the most recent Quinnipiac poll found only 61 percent of Democrats in favor of impeachment and 29 percent opposed. Those numbers may increase now that House leadership is coming around to impeachment.

    The same poll, however, found independent voters mostly against impeachment — 62 percent opposed it to 28 percent in favor. That’s despite Trump having only a 35 percent approval rating among independents in the poll. So impeachment has given Democrats problems among swing voters as well.
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-be-different/
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    Impeachment writ large is usually not popular until it bears out. Nixon's impeachment was wildly unpopular....until it was laid bare and then it wasn't.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Future View Post
    That article says that 40% of voters refuse to identify with a party, and are "all over the ideological map," so I think that 2.4% number is largely undersold...But that's still 6 million votes, and who knows what percentage of that is in swing states.

    But, besides the math of it, I don't buy that the "moderate GOP" is a goner. That person can, all at once, be Pro border control, gun legislation, climate regulation, defense spending, lower taxes, have Christian values AND be anti-Trump. That's a very difficult person for someone like Bernie to beat, because he's not going to get far right votes anyways.

    If Dems want to drag out the impeachment and make it dominate the new cycle, then they're just giving more free airtime to a GOP candidate talking point without actually building their own foundation to win. I don't think that's a very strong position to be in.
    Here's the kink; that person isn't in the GOP. That's a democrat. That's Joe Manchin. Almost to a T, that's Joe Manchin.
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    Quote Originally Posted by G1000 View Post
    Here's the kink; that person isn't in the GOP. That's a democrat. That's Joe Manchin. Almost to a T, that's Joe Manchin.
    Ok fine, but he can't leverage any of that as a Dem in this election. That person can be in any party and as the GOP flip-flops as it always does, it will move back more towards the middle if there's a serious leader there. GOP moderate voices have been largely phased out of this administration, but that doesn't mean they won't be back when it is favorable to them.

    In practice right now, that person would be far more likely to win - and I think have a legitimate chance - as a GOP than a Dem.

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    The next election is a lock for Democrats if they get Trump impeached. There is no win here for Republicans to have him impeached.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    The next election is a lock for Democrats if they get Trump impeached. There is no win here for Republicans to have him impeached.
    *Barring their nominating an utterly unelectable candidate.

    The bigger question is what does impeaching Trump do to the Senate map, particularly in battleground states where incumbent Democratic Senators are also up for reelection? Could prove Pyrrhic if they take the White House only to lose the Senate by an even wider margin. Maybe.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Future View Post
    The win is anti-Trump. If he's impeached...he's not running again, so it doesn't matter. The GOP members who vote for the impeachment - which, you'd need - can then leverage the same wins and play some "justice over party" rhetoric.

    If I'm Paul Ryan, for example, I'm leading the GOP charge to impeach Trump and then running for president with little time for any other candidate to build a campaign. He'd get a ton of moderate votes if he's running against Bernie or Warren, and he can play the "Joe Biden" is senile card otherwise. Plus, he can have some modest proposal on gun control, adopt small pieces of the Green New Deal and just in general operate against Trump talking points.

    Impeaching Trump, win or lose, paves the way for more "legitimate" GOP candidates in 2020.
    Also file under: Romney, Mitt

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    Senate passes measure urging Trump officials to hand over whistleblower complaint

    The Senate passed a resolution on Tuesday urging the administration to hand over a whistleblower complaint reportedly tied to President Trump.

    Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) asked for unanimous consent to pass the nonbinding resolution.

    The resolution urges the administration to hand over the complaint and states that the Senate and House Intelligence committees "should be allowed to evaluate the complaint in a deliberate and bipartisan manner consistent with applicable statutes and processes in order to safeguard classified and sensitive information."
    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/...-whistleblower
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    *Barring their nominating an utterly unelectable candidate.

    The bigger question is what does impeaching Trump do to the Senate map, particularly in battleground states where incumbent Democratic Senators are also up for reelection? Could prove Pyrrhic if they take the White House only to lose the Senate by an even wider margin. Maybe.
    Do not underestimate the cost to any Republican candidate of turning on Trump. The hard core base will look at this as time to fight, not to capitulate. Those who flip on him will face MAGA rage and be potentially looking at unwinnable elections in any but the reddest districts. And I don't think impeachment is any kind of guarantee that Trump doesn't run. He is in a tough spot, but anybody heard from Robert Meuller lately?

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    Quote Originally Posted by RodrigueGabriel View Post
    Do not underestimate the cost to any Republican candidate of turning on Trump. The hard core base will look at this as time to fight, not to capitulate. Those who flip on him will face MAGA rage and be potentially looking at unwinnable elections in any but the reddest districts. And I don't think impeachment is any kind of guarantee that Trump doesn't run. He is in a tough spot, but anybody heard from Robert Meuller lately?

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    Right now, yes. John Kennedy already made the first attempt to spin this into a Biden hit job (and was routinely shut down by Chuck Todd).

    That will likely change as the Impeachment process persists, however. They don't need Trump's support beyond a breaking point. If McConnel leads that charge, Trump's base will shrink to a much more manageable number, while establishment GOP can effectively reunite under a new banner to attempt to reclaim the party.
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    I'll be laughing my ass off when this too goes nowhere and exposes the true depth of the obsessed 24/7 TDS afflicted.
    Most of the country is sick of the Dems constant anti Trump whining and bitching and doing NOTHING for the "real" folk

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