Jump to content
  • Join us — it's free!

    We are the premiere internet community for New York Rangers news and fan discussion. Don't wait — join the forum today!

IGNORED

Pronman's 2019 Farm System Ratings: No. 1 - New York Rangers


Gravesy

Recommended Posts

The Rangers check in as the No. 1 farm system in the NHL, thanks for their last two first-round picks – Kaapo Kakko and Vitaly Kravtsov – the progression of goaltender Igor Shesterkin, acquiring Adam Fox and an overall deep pipeline of defensemen. The system has several players who project to become important players for the Rangers, solid overall depth and a potential superstar at the very top.

 

Key additions: Kaapo Kakko, Adam Fox, Matthew Robertson, Zac Jones

 

Key subtractions/graduations: Lias Andersson, Filip Chytil, Brett Howden, Alexandar Georgiev

 

2018 farm system ranking: No. 11

 

2019 draft grade: A

 

Top 10:

 

1. Kakko

2. Kravtsov

3. Fox

4. Shesterkin

5. Miller

6. Robertson

7. Keane

8. Jones

9. Lundkvist

10. Hajek

 

https://theathletic.com/1126654/2019/09/05/2019-nhl-farm-system-rankings-no-1-new-york-rangers/

 

Jeff Gorton :worship:

 

I'll post more from the article if the powers that be allow it.

 

edit this might belong in the "In the system" subforum. Move it there if you want, Phil.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Top 10:

 

1. Kakko

2. Kravtsov

3. Fox

4. Shesterkin

5. Miller

6. Robertson

7. Keane

8. Jones

9. Lundkvist

10. Hajek

 

https://theathletic.com/1126654/2019/09/05/2019-nhl-farm-system-rankings-no-1-new-york-rangers/

 

Jeff Gorton :worship:

 

I'll post more from the article if the powers that be allow it.

 

edit this might belong in the "In the system" subforum. Move it there if you want, Phil.

Things that struck me quickly:

 

- Robertson, Keane, and Lundqvist all rated ahead of Hajek and Rykov. (Pronman does NOT like Rykov (#18).)

 

- Has Gettinger (#11) and Jake Elmer (#12) rated way ahead of Morgan Barron (#21). Even has Gropp and Fontaine ahead of him.

 

- Does not regard Shestorkin as an elite prospect.

 

- Aaltonen (5th rd) rated ahead of Henrikssen (2nd rd).

 

Sent from my SM-G970U using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hockey is still bad at this stuff. Maybe it just doesn't lend itself to prospect porn like baseball does, but Kakko, Kravtsov and Fox are prospects in name only, they're weeks away from graduating that class.

 

I think a mid season ranking would be more relevant.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Things that struck me quickly:

 

- Robertson, Keane, and Lundqvist all rated ahead of Hajek and Rykov. (Pronman does NOT like Rykov (#18).)

 

- Has Gettinger (#11) and Jake Elmer (#12) rated way ahead of Morgan Barron (#21). Even has Gropp and Fontaine ahead of him.

 

- Does not regard Shestorkin as an elite prospect.

 

- Aaltonen (5th rd) rated ahead of Henrikssen (2nd rd).

 

Sent from my SM-G970U using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk

 

Pronman is VERY caught up on skill, and undervalue the more steady eddie types. That probably explains Hajek and Rykov below those guys. He got Brady Tkachuk all kinds of wrong, for example.

He's also very concerned with skating and pace, which explains the low rating of Barron and Henriksson.

He doesn't think any goalie is an elite prospect, hiding behind the "goalies are voodoo" schtick.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pronman is VERY caught up on skill, and undervalue the more steady eddie types. That probably explains Hajek and Rykov below those guys. He got Brady Tkachuk all kinds of wrong, for example.

He's also very concerned with skating and pace, which explains the low rating of Barron and Henriksson.

He doesn't think any goalie is an elite prospect, hiding behind the "goalies are voodoo" schtick.

 

Not to defend him, but I think that makes a lot of sense from a talent evaluation standpoint. If I'm a scout, my job is to find players who have the tools to stick in the NHL. As the league gets faster, more skillful, etc - those are things that matter most.

 

The "goalies are voodoo" thing is...kinda true, I guess, but more from the "we don't know why they're voodoo nor how to pick them well" perspective. Goalies will be the very last thing NHL teams truly figure out. The sample size is literally 10 times smaller than skaters, and there's little that seems to make sense with regard to how they're selected/earmarked. They've become the "fantasy football kicker" of the NHL - you need em, you don't quite know how to pick them, but they contribute effectively.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not to defend him, but I think that makes a lot of sense from a talent evaluation standpoint. If I'm a scout, my job is to find players who have the tools to stick in the NHL. As the league gets faster, more skillful, etc - those are things that matter most.

 

The "goalies are voodoo" thing is...kinda true, I guess, but more from the "we don't know why they're voodoo nor how to pick them well" perspective. Goalies will be the very last thing NHL teams truly figure out. The sample size is literally 10 times smaller than skaters, and there's little that seems to make sense with regard to how they're selected/earmarked. They've become the "fantasy football kicker" of the NHL - you need em, you don't quite know how to pick them, but they contribute effectively.

 

Yeah, I don't disagree. Certainly not in principle. But it does leave him open at times. For example, I would argue Hajek has a brighter future than Joey Keane - even if his skill set lacks wow factor.

And even if it's hard to determine how a goaltender will pan out, I think as an evaluator you can stick your neck out and name the best ones "elite".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, I don't disagree. Certainly not in principle. But it does leave him open at times. For example, I would argue Hajek has a brighter future than Joey Keane - even if his skill set lacks wow factor.

 

I'll caveat that I know NOTHING about what defines success as a scout, but I'd imagine that if a scout is right 51% of the time, they're probably an "elite" scout. I'd also guess I'm overestimating that number. I'm assuming you can - check his bit on Cole Caufield in the Montreal ranking. He talks a little about it because he was so off-alignment with NHL scouts there. I'd reckon his logic is Hajek is closer, but Keane has a chance at being a longer-term NHLer.

 

And even if it's hard to determine how a goaltender will pan out, I think as an evaluator you can stick your neck out and name the best ones "elite".

 

Probably, but I don't blame Pronman - or really, the NHL scouting community writ large - for avoiding that label, because...well...history.

 

Since the 2005 draft, here's a list of 1st round goalies:

 

2005: Carey Price, Tuukka Rask

2006: Jonathan Bernier, Riku Helenius, Semyon Varlamov, Leland Irving

2007: None

2008: Chet Pickard, Thomas McCollum, (Jacob Markstrom at 31)

2009: Mikko Koskinen at 31

2010: Jack Campbell, Mark Visentin

2011: None

2012: Andrey Vasilevskiy, Malcolm Subban, (Oscar Dansk at 31)

2013: None

2014: None

2015: Ilya Samsonov

2016: None

2017: Jake Oettinger

2018: None

2019: Spencer Knight

 

It's just....complete and utter voodoo. In 15 years, 4 starters? MAYBE 5 if you count Bernier as a starter? Two starters coming from the '05 draft too. To be fair, it could just be that goalies aren't usually a hot enough commodity at the draft, but I think it speaks more to the difficulty in projecting goalies properly not making them worth spending high picks on.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, I don't disagree. Certainly not in principle. But it does leave him open at times. For example, I would argue Hajek has a brighter future than Joey Keane - even if his skill set lacks wow factor.

And even if it's hard to determine how a goaltender will pan out, I think as an evaluator you can stick your neck out and name the best ones "elite".

I don't subscribe to the Athletic, but everything I read from this guy screams that he's more impressed by razzle dazzle than actual ability to play hockey. What's this rating system based on? What is actually being ranked? Potential or practical?

 

Keane could be the next Tyson Barrie or the next DZ. Could just as easily be an all star or out of the league.

 

Hajek is likely be the something like Stralman is now. He's a sure fire reliable NHLer, from my understanding.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hockey is still bad at this stuff. Maybe it just doesn't lend itself to prospect porn like baseball does, but Kakko, Kravtsov and Fox are prospects in name only, they're weeks away from graduating that class.

 

I think a mid season ranking would be more relevant.

 

I agree in principle. The strength of this "system" is going to be short-lived without continued strong drafting, because most of this class will graduate almost immediately in the same way Chytil has.

 

By next year, minimum, half this list won't be prospects anymore, but NHLers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree in principle. The strength of this "system" is going to be short-lived without continued strong drafting, because most of this class will graduate almost immediately in the same way Chytil has.

 

By next year, minimum, half this list won't be prospects anymore, but NHLers.

 

Really depends on how they perform at the NHL level. But the sports media LOVES grading drafts, prospects all that nonsense the day after the draft anyway. It's an easy story, no real hard work involved,rehash some predraft scouting boilerplate, some stealing, lots of speculation.

 

Seen lots of tape of Igor, but I have no idea. Pronman has probably seen a lot of the same tape and some international stuff, but not much more than anyone here. On that, he bases his evaluation. And really if he's totally wrong, nobody will call him on it, much less remember.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pronman is VERY caught up on skill, and undervalue the more steady eddie types. That probably explains Hajek and Rykov below those guys. He got Brady Tkachuk all kinds of wrong, for example.

He's also very concerned with skating and pace, which explains the low rating of Barron and Henriksson.

He doesn't think any goalie is an elite prospect, hiding behind the "goalies are voodoo" schtick.

I think he admits as much, and does a lot of his grading based on ceiling.

 

But, to that end, he still has Hajek as a "Legit" prospect - so projects him to be a full-time player, and Rykov as having a chance, so the potential is there. Wouldn't we all agree with that?

 

It's easy to nitpick his rankings or whatever, but he's generally pretty fair about projecting players' roles.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes - ranked 23 right behind Reunanen and Barron, in the same tier as Rykov.

 

Basically says that Lindgren can be an NHL regular if he improves moving the puck.

 

23rd ranked prospect has a decent chance of making the NHL. 3 years ago I guess we had 1-2 that had a decent shot at making it? This rebuild is just crazy.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think he admits as much, and does a lot of his grading based on ceiling.

 

But, to that end, he still has Hajek as a "Legit" prospect - so projects him to be a full-time player, and Rykov as having a chance, so the potential is there. Wouldn't we all agree with that?

 

It's easy to nitpick his rankings or whatever, but he's generally pretty fair about projecting players' roles.

 

I agree with that. I'm not really trying to criticize him. Just making the point that the ratings are what they are because he values skill and pace more than anything else.

Which is understandable and makes sense for the most part, but at times it leaves him open to under valuing guys who project to do an important job in the NHL because they're not as flashy.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think he admits as much, and does a lot of his grading based on ceiling.

 

But, to that end, he still has Hajek as a "Legit" prospect - so projects him to be a full-time player, and Rykov as having a chance, so the potential is there. Wouldn't we all agree with that?

 

It's easy to nitpick his rankings or whatever, but he's generally pretty fair about projecting players' roles.

I think Pronman is openly aware that he dwells in a highly speculative business and that he will make mistakes, sometimes glaring ones. He stepped up to admit his goof on Tkachuk and talks throughout his rankings about having previously both under and oversold prospects.

 

But his seems about as educated a voice on prospects as is out there, having carved out this weird niche career and, like McKenzie, leans heavily on pro scouts for confirmation and to fill in holes. So, while not gospel by any means, usually a pretty interesting take. If nothing else, summer content for starving consumers.

 

Sent from my SM-G970U using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now


×
×
  • Create New...