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Thread: Rangers Manage Expectations After Adding Panarin, Trouba, Kakko

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by josh View Post
    Although I understand the process, I'm not going to lie, 75 points would be disappointing.
    Id actually be ok with that. Would almost guarantee another generational forward equivalent to Kakko level


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    They had 78 last season, and couldn't figure out how to tank harder; I handicap it at 90 point season based on nothing more than conjecture.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Puck Head View Post
    I’d actually be ok with that. Would almost guarantee another generational forward equivalent to Kakko level


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    I care more about the players' development.
    If none of the 7 first round forwards can improve their game this season, then what's another one going to change?
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    Quote Originally Posted by josh View Post
    I care more about the players' development.
    If none of the 7 first round forwards can improve their game this season, then what's another one going to change?
    The oilers have been asking themselves that for years
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    Quote Originally Posted by Myusername View Post
    I definitely think that's a worst case scenario. For that to materialize you're probably looking at none of the sophomore players getting better (which I don't see as likely since they don't really have anywhere to go but up) and all of the new additions severlely underperforming

    One factor that could be responsible for u sucking is the goalie situation. We can't rely on Hank to steal games anymore and Georgiev and Shesterkin are still unknowns. I feel confident Georgiev will continue to be good but if not it wouldn't be the first time a goalie has excelled out the gate in a small sample size only to crap the bed once asked to take on a steadier workload
    I don't think you can count on either Georgiev or Shesterkin playing at the same level that Hank did for years. That said, it's been proven that you don't actually need that kind of play from your goalie if your team is built well. I guess my point is, they don't need Hank (or anyone) to steal games to be better than last season. Hank certainly didn't steal many games last year. 75 points, in my opinion, would be shocking. All they need is mediocre goaltending which is what they got last year out of Hank.
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    75 points would mean that most or all of the young players are not developing as much as hoped, and 75 points can just as likely mean another Lias as another Kakko as the pick after the lottery. No thanks.

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    As much as I’d love another high pick, it’s more important that they take a step at this point. Making the playoffs would be nice and while I think it’s a reasonable expectation and goal, if they miss the playoffs it isn’t a huge loss. Really they just need to be playing meaningful hockey down the stretch.

    Fewer points than last season would likely represent some form of a disaster happening, i.e. a rash of injuries or a couple of really significant ones. They should probably be 10 points better at the minimum. 12-15 points is probably reasonable. 20 points probably puts them in serious contention for a playoff spot.

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    75 points could just be a result of having so many players just trying to learn the ropes at the nhl level. I think its a fair number, I would probably say the over/under number should be 80 pts if I was making a betting line.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fatfrancesa View Post
    75 points could just be a result of having so many players just trying to learn the ropes at the nhl level. I think it’s a fair number, I would probably say the over/under number should be 80 pts if I was making a betting line.
    Yeah. It is a bit tricky. Say as you will for Panarin and Trouba’s contracts, but the presence of those 2 guys and the minutes they’ll play make them significantly and immediately better. On the other hand, all the young guys and with still significant holes on D, there’s going to be lots of lapses that result in pucks in their net

    Guess we will see.

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    80 points with development from young guys works for me. Do we have a #2 center? How much impact will Kakko, Kratsov, and Fox have in year 1? Do Panarin and Trouba play like the studs they are being paid to be? Less concerning is how much gas Hank and Staal have left but that will impact results in next season. Should be an entertaining team to watch with some firepower.

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    Again, I wouldn't put too much stock in the 75 pt projection.
    As they say themselves, rookies are rated as replacement level players. That means a 40-50 point season from Kakko, 30ish from Kravtsov and Fox would have a pretty significant positive effect on the projected points total.

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    It's the dumbest, most irrelevant projection ever. First, they use a baseball stat that shouldn't come within 100 miles of hockey, that's the foundation. In fact, in baseball, they don't give rookies a replacement level rating, they don't tell you Vladdy Jr or Pete Alonso is replacement level, that's asinine. Then, they predict the lines for the season.. In August. LMAO.

    They seem to understand the underlying ridiculousness of this but then go ahead anyways. It's absurd.

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    You don’t need any fancy system to come up with a projection. The people writing the articles try to use these metrics to give their projection merit. That’s all. Rookies and guys that are under22 are not finished products. Some take longer than others to figure it out, some never do. That is the reality to me, so my expectation and my thought on what success looks like has nothing to do with the playoffs.

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fatfrancesa View Post
    You don’t need any fancy system to come up with a projection. The people writing the articles try to use these metrics to give their projection merit. That’s all. Rookies and guys that are under22 are not finished products. Some take longer than others to figure it out, some never do. That is the reality to me, so my expectation and my thought on what success looks like has nothing to do with the playoffs.
    Not sure if you're an Athletic subscriber (if you're not, you're missing out), but the article literally says "take this with a grain of salt because the projection doesn't work well with young talent". It's not like they're not acknowledging the obvious flaw in the model - a model that has rightfully gained popularity in front offices around the league. Hockey advanced stats are incredibly fascinating, and with the upcoming player tracking, will undoubtedly get way, way cooler.

    That said, I kind of wish these articles threw in Vegas odds during the speculative season. Their whole job is to get people to bite on 50.5/49.5 bets and collect as much as they can on the bigger skew. They've got the Rangers at 87.5 - so basically a bubble/sell team. I think that might be just a hair high; the Metro is basically a Spartan arena at this point, and I feel as though even if we see good progress from youth, we'll get outscored or outdefended pretty frequently. Fun team to watch, future is there, but in a place where they're just going to need to take their punches and earn their stripes this season.

    Season is weird, and for all we know Panarin, Kakko, and Kravtsov come in and light it up, Chytil, Andersson, and Howden solidify our middle, Fox, Hajek, and Trouba stabilize the D, Hank runs back to form, and we're right there. I'm not betting on that being the outcome, though. Not yet, anyway.
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    A projection of 90 points with a wide +/- 10 points would not be too much to ask for. 80 points should be the bare minimum. Anything lower than 80 should indicate that Quinn doesn't have the coaching/development skills needed in the modern NHL. This is just my personal opinion as of today. He would definitely get a pass if circumstances beyond his control like key injuries were responsible.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CBrowningPI View Post
    A projection of 90 points with a wide +/- 10 points would not be too much to ask for. 80 points should be the bare minimum. Anything lower than 80 should indicate that Quinn doesn't have the coaching/development skills needed in the modern NHL. This is just my personal opinion as of today. He would definitely get a pass if circumstances beyond his control like key injuries were responsible.

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    Why's that? We're going to have 11 players with fewer than 100 games NHL experience on this team, including four players with zero NHL experience - two of whom will be slotting into our top 6 in all likelihood. We're in the toughest division in the NHL. If he gets 80 points out of this team, it's an accomplishment.

    Look for growth over outcomes this year, IMO.
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    Not sure the Metro is the toughest division. The top 5 teams appear weaker this season in my opinion and the bottom 3 appear to have improved but how much is still to be determined. Only no doubt about it playoff team is the Caps.

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    The rangers just spent a whole lot of money on two high-end players ,if they only get 75 points ,it will be a disappointing season,this team should get 85 to 90 points
    Last edited by lefty9; 08-08-2019 at 11:05 AM.

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    What will really be interesting is how long of a leash Quinn gives all of these young players. Last year he had some, like Chytil, on a short leash, and others, like Howden, on one of those 30 foot long extended leashes. Could there be an element of Colin Campbell here, with a shorter leash for young Europeans? We'll see.

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    Quinn's Leash-Length Power Rankings

    1. Zibanejad
    2. Howden
    3. Fast
    4. Zibanejad playing right point on the PP
    5. Strome
    6. winger Smith
    7. Staal
    8. Boo Nieves
    9. engaged Chytil
    10. Georgiev
    11. Skjei-ky D
    12. Kreider
    13. Lundqvist 2018
    14. out of shape Lemieux
    15. Namestnikov
    16. "Good" Skjei
    17. defenseman Smith
    18. Deangelo
    19. 4th line Chytil
    20. Hajek
    21. waffles
    22. Andersson
    23. sad Buchnevich

    Removed: #1 Neal Pionk, #2 Jimmy Vesey, #3 his former player Kevin Shattenkirk, #7 training camp Vinni Leteiri
    Lias Andersson for #AJT2019

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