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Pavel Buchnevich, Jacob Trouba File for Arbitration


Phil

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IMO if you bridge Buch and he does anything like he showed last year (becomes a 50 point player), Kreider is getting moved to make room for his salary and some other player's raises.

 

Gotta keep that salary manageable and don't offer trade protection.

 

Mutually exclusive factors.

 

 

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IMO if you bridge Buch and he does anything like he showed last year (becomes a 50 point player), Kreider is getting moved to make room for his salary and some other player's raises.

 

Gotta keep that salary manageable and don't offer trade protection.

 

Obviously they are still waiting on Kreider, but IMO if Kreider were in the long-term plans they?d have extended him already. They?re just looking for a deal they like for him at this point. If Colorado would?ve given up 16 overall at the draft last month and liked their chances at keeping him log-term, he?s be gone already.

 

I still think there is a good shot at him ending up in Colorado. He fits there. Drop Landeskog down to play with Kadri. Play Kreider with MacKinnon. While you never know how it will work till you try, those combinations make sense stylistically.

 

If Colorado is willing to give you a 1st in the 2020 draft for Kreider, in the absence of a deal that they like more, you take it.

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Obviously they are still waiting on Kreider, but IMO if Kreider were in the long-term plans they’d have extended him already. They’re just looking for a deal they like for him at this point. If Colorado would’ve given up 16 overall at the draft last month and liked their chances at keeping him log-term, he’s be gone already.

 

I still think there is a good shot at him ending up in Colorado. He fits there. Drop Landeskog down to play with Kadri. Play Kreider with MacKinnon. While you never know how it will work till you try, those combinations make sense stylistically.

 

If Colorado is willing to give you a 1st in the 2020 draft for Kreider, in the absence of a deal that they like more, you take it.

Given the depth of next year's draft, I don't think there's any way COL - or almost any team, really - would give a 2020 first for Kreider any time before the deadline. I know it's early, but the top 5-6 players in 2020 could all have gone #1 overall every year since McDavid.

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Given the depth of next year's draft, I don't think there's any way COL - or almost any team, really - would give a 2020 first for Kreider any time before the deadline. I know it's early, but the top 5-6 players in 2020 could all have gone #1 overall every year since McDavid.

 

The Avs aren’t getting a top-10 pick this year. They probably wind up with a pick in the low-teens to high-20’s. Perhaps even lower.

 

And they are clearly shifting into a win now time . They need guys who will help them for the next few seasons, not in a few seasons, like whom ever they would draft presumably would.

 

And are they drafting a guy at that spot who is likely better than Kreider?

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Well I didn't say age 33, because that's not what he's going to be in 3 years. You don't sign Panarin, trade for Trouba, and think, "trust the process." Making those moves and not thinking you'll be good for another 3 years is contradictory. They're trying to win right now, and Kreider gives you the best shot at that.

 

To that end, why are we assuming that Kreider's play is going to drop off a cliff, but Panarin's won't? The whole "Panarin's game translates better" is...nonsense, relative to Kreider, who is phenomenally conditioned and who's only real injury was a fluke. Part of the critique of Kreider is that he's not physical enough, drifts, etc. etc., which is fair, but it lends itself to longevity. If he played like Ryan Callahan, I'd agree, but he doesn't. In the NHL today, 30 is only a cutoff for guys who can only make the roster if they go 100 mph. Guys who play with any skill are good far beyond that. There's no reason Kreider can't have the same career arc as Pavelski - who plays basically the same game - or Marleau, who both surpassed their career-high goal totals in their age 29 season and were productive well into their 30s.

 

I couldn't disagree more. The Rangers are in the process of building a team that can contend in a few years time. They are in nothing like win now mode. There isn't a single person in the world who actually believes the Rangers are in a position to "win now". You trade for Trouba because he's young and will be a key contributor on that team for the duration of his contract. You sign Panarin because he's an elite player who will be a key contributor on that team for the duration of his contract. You're likely to see some regression on the tail end of that contract, but he's regressing from a level way, way above Kreider.

I don't necessarily believe Kreider's play is going to drop of a cliff, but I think he's more likely to be the 20ish goals a season type of player that he's been his entire career, rather than improving to be a 25-30 goalscorer. At 32, not 33 you're quite right.

I just don't think a 7x7 deal for a 20ish goalscorer the wrong side of 30 for the majority of that contract is a good fit for where the Rangers are right now, and it's one I think it's fairly likely they'll come to regret.

 

Article here from Goldman that looks at both angles: https://theathletic.com/1072349/2019/07/11/goldman-evaluating-whether-the-rangers-should-trade-or-extend-chris-kreider/

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The Avs aren’t getting a top-10 pick this year. They probably wind up with a pick in the low-teens to high-20’s. Perhaps even lower.

 

And they are clearly shifting into a win now time . They need guys who will help them for the next few seasons, not in a few seasons, like whom ever they would draft presumably would.

 

And are they drafting a guy at that spot who is likely better than Kreider?

Finishing in the teens gives them the opportunity, with the lottery, to move way up. We just saw that with the Rangers AND Blackhawks this year. At the deadline, you have a better perspective on where you're going to finish, but the AVs aren't in a position where it's so certain they'll be a playoff team that they're likely to move their first-rounder, especially given that they wouldn't move #16 last year.

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I couldn't disagree more. The Rangers are in the process of building a team that can contend in a few years time. They are in nothing like win now mode. There isn't a single person in the world who actually believes the Rangers are in a position to "win now". You trade for Trouba because he's young and will be a key contributor on that team for the duration of his contract. You sign Panarin because he's an elite player who will be a key contributor on that team for the duration of his contract. You're likely to see some regression on the tail end of that contract, but he's regressing from a level way, way above Kreider.

I don't necessarily believe Kreider's play is going to drop of a cliff, but I think he's more likely to be the 20ish goals a season type of player that he's been his entire career, rather than improving to be a 25-30 goalscorer. At 32, not 33 you're quite right.

I just don't think a 7x7 deal for a 20ish goalscorer the wrong side of 30 for the majority of that contract is a good fit for where the Rangers are right now, and it's one I think it's fairly likely they'll come to regret.

 

Article here from Goldman that looks at both angles: https://theathletic.com/1072349/2019/07/11/goldman-evaluating-whether-the-rangers-should-trade-or-extend-chris-kreider/

So you think 30 y.o. Panarin as your best player isn't problematic, but 30 y.o. Kreider on the second line is? You don't spend $20 million and a first-round pick on 2 players and say "we're going to win in 3 years." NYR is absolutely in position to win now with Panarin and Kreider. Probably not a true Cup contender, but they're absolutely in the mix, assuming the rookies are as advertised.

 

I'm confused where this 32, 33 number comes from, you're blowing his age out of proportion. He's 28 - exactly 6 months older than Panarin. If you're winning now, you're talking about a 3-year window where he's still only 31. In 5 years, yea, there's questions, but that's the same for Panarin, regardless of where they start. So Panarin turning into a 70-point player who costs you 11+ is ok?

 

You're underselling his goal scoring. He's a firm 25 goal scorer over the last 3 years - 27.85 pace, to be specific. Every good team has these 30+ contracts. It's not restrictive of anything unless Kakko, Kravtsov, Chityl are all absolute stars. Chances of that are beyond slim and, if it does happen, you've got a problem of pushing Panarin to the second line anyways. Plus, you're a legitimate contender.

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Finishing in the teens gives them the opportunity, with the lottery, to move way up. We just saw that with the Rangers AND Blackhawks this year. At the deadline, you have a better perspective on where you're going to finish, but the AVs aren't in a position where it's so certain they'll be a playoff team that they're likely to move their first-rounder, especially given that they wouldn't move #16 last year.

 

They?re expectations are to be a playoff team. And they absolutely should be a playoff team. Everything they?re doing says they?re trying to improve upon last season where they were a game away from the WCF. If they were to miss the playoffs it would be a huge disappointment and more than a little surprising.

 

I?ll give you that nothing is a certainty. But it?s clear that Sakic is shifting to towards improving his team for the present. If you can get a full season for f Kreider for a 1st now, why pay a 1st at the deadline and get 25 games?

 

See your point but I don?t think they?re picking in the lottery this year. If they were to miss the playoffs I think it?s by a slim margin and while anything is possible, they?d have slim odds at moving into top-3.

 

They need to think about challenging and competing for a Cup now.

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They’re expectations are to be a playoff team. And they absolutely should be a playoff team. Everything they’re doing says they’re trying to improve upon last season where they were a game away from the WCF. If they were to miss the playoffs it would be a huge disappointment and more than a little surprising.

I don't think it would be that surprising. They squeaked in last year and aren't markedly better. Basically, they're assuming that Makar is legit. If he's not, they're worse than last year.

 

I agree that they are in win-now mode, but Kreider doesn't move them from being a lottery team to a cup contender, so I'd be shocked to see them make that kind of investment before the trade deadline.

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I don't think Kreider on the 2nd line is problematic per se, I think his contract will be. I don't think Panarins contract is going to be problematic because he's an elite playmaker that I believe will still play very well even as he ages. This is what I think, it can't really be proven or disproven at this point.

The Rangers are nowhere near "in the mix". At all. They're an outside bet of getting a WC spot. I'm not sure where you're getting this from, it's literally the first time I hear anyone say it.

In his last 5 seasons Kreider scored 21, 21, 28, 16, 28. So I'm not sure I'm underselling his scoring at all by calling him a 20ish goalscorer. Even if you're being very kind and extrapolate that 16 goal season to 82 games his average is 24,8. Less than 25, which means calling him a 25-30 goal scorer going forward seem generous, particularly factoring in age over his new contract. I mean we're splitting hairs here, but again I question the realism in thinking he's going to improve as a player into his 30's and certainly what he's going to look like on the back end of that contract.

 

But this seems like a good point to agree to disagree. I don't hate the idea of resigning him. But I really do think it's one they and we will regret.

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I don't think Kreider on the 2nd line is problematic per se, I think his contract will be. I don't think Panarins contract is going to be problematic because he's an elite playmaker that I believe will still play very well even as he ages. This is what I think, it can't really be proven or disproven at this point.

The Rangers are nowhere near "in the mix". At all. They're an outside bet of getting a WC spot. I'm not sure where you're getting this from, it's literally the first time I hear anyone say it.

In his last 5 seasons Kreider scored 21, 21, 28, 16, 28. So I'm not sure I'm underselling his scoring at all by calling him a 20ish goalscorer. Even if you're being very kind and extrapolate that 16 goal season to 82 games his average is 24,8. Less than 25, which means calling him a 25-30 goal scorer seem generous, particularly factoring in age over his new contract. I mean we're splitting hairs here, but again I question the realism in thinking he's going to improve as a player into his 30's and certainly what he's going to look like on the back end of that contract.

 

But this seems like a good point to agree to disagree. I don't hate the idea of resigning him. But I really do think it's one they and we will regret.

Except it's not. Like 5 posts ago I already named guys who don't cause that problem with similar contracts, and there are plenty more.

 

Yea, they're in the mix for the playoffs, more than an outside shot at the WC. Have you seen the Metro?

 

Christ. If you go by games played vs. goals over the last 3 seasons, he paces 27.8. Yes the number goes down as you move towards his earlier years. But right now, based on his most recent run, he's a 25-30 goal scorer. Even if you go all the way back to his first full-time season, his pace is 24.6. Would you rather I call him a 24-29 goal scorer?

 

It's a fair concern, I'm not discrediting it, but Kreider being undersold to justify it irks me, especially the idea that he'd be a hugely problematic contract at age 32 playing in the middle 6.

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Except it's not. Like 5 posts ago I already named guys who don't cause that problem with similar contracts, and there are plenty more.

 

Yea, they're in the mix for the playoffs, more than an outside shot at the WC. Have you seen the Metro?

 

Christ. If you go by games played vs. goals over the last 3 seasons, he paces 27.8. Yes the number goes down as you move towards his earlier years. But right now, based on his most recent run, he's a 25-30 goal scorer. Even if you go all the way back to his first full-time season, his pace is 24.6. Would you rather I call him a 24-29 goal scorer?

 

It's a fair concern, I'm not discrediting it, but Kreider being undersold to justify it irks me, especially the idea that he'd be a hugely problematic contract at age 32 playing in the middle 6.

 

But lets be honest here, the guys you mentioned are significantly better than Chris Kreider and have been for their entire careers.

I'm really not trying to undersell Kreider. I like him. Like I said, we're splitting hairs on the numbers, but personally I find expecting a guy who has never scored 30 and north of 25 only twice in a 7 year career to be a 25-30 goalscorer well into his 30's a bit unrealistic. I just think the fit and timing for a 7 year deal for him is not a good one. If they could sign him for 5 years I'd be all in. I think it very well could be prohibitive, because in 3 years time they're going to be looking to add final pieces to the puzzle to push them over the line, and - if I'm right in my worries over Kreider - a semi productive 30 something on 7m with several years left is exactly the type of contract that stands in the way.

 

If by "in the mix" you mean "have a shot at the playoffs" then I don't disagree. But that's not exactly what I'm thinking of when saying a team is in win now mode.

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I don't think it would be that surprising. They squeaked in last year and aren't markedly better. Basically, they're assuming that Makar is legit. If he's not, they're worse than last year.

 

I agree that they are in win-now mode, but Kreider doesn't move them from being a lottery team to a cup contender, so I'd be shocked to see them make that kind of investment before the trade deadline.

 

Don’t overlook adding Kadri, Donskoi and Burakovsky

They had issue with forward depth last year in a huge way. They were basically a 1 line team

Added a legitimate 2C in Kadri

The other 2 I mentioned are a nice improvement to the bottom 6.

 

Add Kreider and that top-6 is a very good group. You’d have 5 bonafide 25+ goal guys.

 

As for the D, you’re right. They are betting big on Makar being very good right away. But the rest of the group of Johnson, Girard, Zadorov, Ian Cole, and their depth guys is a pretty solid group.

 

And they clearly like what they have in Grubauer.

 

I’d argue that on paper, they’ve made a pretty fair improvement

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But lets be honest here, the guys you mentioned are significantly better than Chris Kreider and have been for their entire careers.

I'm really not trying to undersell Kreider. I like him. Like I said, we're splitting hairs on the numbers, but personally I find expecting a guy who has never scored 30 and north of 25 only twice in a 7 year career to be a 25-30 goalscorer well into his 30's a bit unrealistic. I just think the fit and timing for a 7 year deal for him is not a good one. If they could sign him for 5 years I'd be all in. I think it very well could be prohibitive, because in 3 years time they're going to be looking to add final pieces to the puzzle to push them over the line, and - if I'm right in my worries over Kreider - a semi productive 30 something on 7m with several years left is exactly the type of contract that stands in the way.

 

If by "in the mix" you mean "have a shot at the playoffs" then I don't disagree. But that's not exactly what I'm thinking of when saying a team is in win now mode.

 

I agree

 

And the Hayes contract will be used as a benchmark for Kreider and his deal

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Given the depth of next year's draft, I don't think there's any way COL - or almost any team, really - would give a 2020 first for Kreider any time before the deadline. I know it's early, but the top 5-6 players in 2020 could all have gone #1 overall every year since McDavid.

 

This is a pretty extreme exaggeration.

There are no Matthews in this draft. Probably no Hughes either. There may be one player compatible to them and Eichel.

 

The difference in the 2020 draft is there may be 5 players at a top tier where typically there has been only 2-3

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk

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If they move Kreider, who is going to be their net front presence? How many goals were directly influenced by him screening the goalie and he doesn't get any credit in his stats. Zib had a career year and deserves the accolades but he definitely was helped on many goals by Kreider. Losing a strong, fast skating, offensive threat to help develop the youngins would be a terrible move in relation to where this team now sits. I also think Philly will regret that 7x7 Hayes deal. If Kreider does get re-signed it will be closer to 6-6.5 x 5-6yrs. Maybe with incentives added. They really need to dump Names and possibly Strome. Smith will never play at MSG again.
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If they move Kreider, who is going to be their net front presence? How many goals were directly influenced by him screening the goalie and he doesn't get any credit in his stats. Zib had a career year and deserves the accolades but he definitely was helped on many goals by Kreider. Losing a strong, fast skating, offensive threat to help develop the youngins would be a terrible move in relation to where this team now sits. I also think Philly will regret that 7x7 Hayes deal. If Kreider does get re-signed it will be closer to 6-6.5 x 5-6yrs. Maybe with incentives added. They really need to dump Names and possibly Strome. Smith will never play at MSG again.

 

Someone else will need to step into that role if he leaves

 

I like Kreider too. Just not enough to pay him in the $7 million neighborhood till he’s 35.

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If they move Kreider, who is going to be their net front presence? How many goals were directly influenced by him screening the goalie and he doesn't get any credit in his stats. Zib had a career year and deserves the accolades but he definitely was helped on many goals by Kreider. Losing a strong, fast skating, offensive threat to help develop the youngins would be a terrible move in relation to where this team now sits. I also think Philly will regret that 7x7 Hayes deal. If Kreider does get re-signed it will be closer to 6-6.5 x 5-6yrs. Maybe with incentives added. They really need to dump Names and possibly Strome. Smith will never play at MSG again.

 

Someone else will need to step into that role if he leaves

 

I like Kreider too. Just not enough to pay him in the $7 million neighborhood till he?s 35.

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But lets be honest here, the guys you mentioned are significantly better than Chris Kreider and have been for their entire careers.

I'm really not trying to undersell Kreider. I like him. Like I said, we're splitting hairs on the numbers, but personally I find expecting a guy who has never scored 30 and north of 25 only twice in a 7 year career to be a 25-30 goalscorer well into his 30's a bit unrealistic. I just think the fit and timing for a 7 year deal for him is not a good one. If they could sign him for 5 years I'd be all in. I think it very well could be prohibitive, because in 3 years time they're going to be looking to add final pieces to the puzzle to push them over the line, and - if I'm right in my worries over Kreider - a semi productive 30 something on 7m with several years left is exactly the type of contract that stands in the way.

 

If by "in the mix" you mean "have a shot at the playoffs" then I don't disagree. But that's not exactly what I'm thinking of when saying a team is in win now mode.

Alex Steen and TJ Oshie are significantly better than Chris Kreider? Nah.

 

FYI - Steen had his career-high in goals at age 29, and Oshie did it at 30. Neither had broken 30 goals before then, Steen had never broken 25, and the only time Oshie broke 25 was...when he was 29.

 

"In the mix" is like that 6-10 range. I don't think there's very much difference between a 100-point team and a 90-point team, and they can be right in that range next year.

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