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Thread: Pavel Buchnevich, Jacob Trouba File for Arbitration

  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    It ain't Buch money, either. You're willing to pay for him showing up half a season and playing well, when the other half he was scratched LOL.
    Exactly
    This is why a bridge deal suits him well.

    I like him a lot and I think he has much more potential to tap into. The 20-goal season and his improved play later in the season are big positives and really encouraging to see.

    But he still has a lot to prove and improve upon before anyone should dump $20+ million over 4+ years of guaranteed paydays in his lap when he hasnít fully earned it yet.

    That said, heís certainly earned something and a 2 year deal and $6 million or so ainít nothing to sneeze at.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RangersIn7 View Post
    Exactly
    This is why a bridge deal suits him well.

    I like him a lot and I think he has much more potential to tap into. The 20-goal season and his improved play later in the season are big positives and really encouraging to see.

    But he still has a lot to prove and improve upon before anyone should dump $20+ million over 4+ years of guaranteed paydays in his lap when he hasnít fully earned it yet.

    That said, heís certainly earned something and a 2 year deal and $6 million or so ainít nothing to sneeze at.
    Exactly. Agreed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gravesy View Post
    Maybe not next year, but down the line when guys like Kakko, Kravtsov, Fox and Chytil come off their ELCís having a 30 something Kreider on 7m is exactly the type of deal that hurts you. Iím extremely sceptical even though I like Kreider.
    For a guy who's never scored 30, to boot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    Agreed to an extent on the first part, but my thought is that Buchnevich has already shown that he is a 15-20 goal scorer and capable of well more than that. He is 24 years old and a solid candidate to get even better. We all saw the progression he made last year (15g, 12A in last 42 games), which is a 30 goal/50+ point pace over a majority of the season. His production sky-rocketed when he received 2nd line-ish minutes. He's the exact kind of talent you try and lock up on the cheaper side while you have the leverage.
    He really hasn't though. His underlying metrics suggests that he's probably a 2nd line wing, maybe even more, but until he does it for more than 20 games, you can't pay him like he has.

    He's on the right track, and I'm right there with you hoping he's a 30/30 guy, but he's in more of a "prove it" spot than he is a "I've done it, pay me" spot.
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    Buch is exactly the guy you bridge.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    Buch is exactly the guy you bridge.
    Skjei was.

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    Quote Originally Posted by G1000 View Post
    He really hasn't though. His underlying metrics suggests that he's probably a 2nd line wing, maybe even more, but until he does it for more than 20 games, you can't pay him like he has.

    He's on the right track, and I'm right there with you hoping he's a 30/30 guy, but he's in more of a "prove it" spot than he is a "I've done it, pay me" spot.
    He really has though. And it's hard to call 4M 2nd line money to be honest. If it is, it's bottom of the barrel.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    Skjei was.
    OK. They didn't. Not sure why that matters here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    OK. They didn't. Not sure why that matters here.
    You would know why it matters if you've read anything being written. It requires just a touch of critical thinking though.

    Skjei is an example of a player you bridge because, while he is/was young, he had been trending downward.

    Buchnevich is an example of a player you consider buying UFA years because he's young and has started to trend upward.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    Skjei was.
    Any inconsistent player, really.

    Buch, Deangelo this season. Unless they want to sign a deal like Fast


    And we are not hating on Buchnevich. Just need to be cognizant of his play and the cap moving forward. Can’t hand out term contracts for question marks.
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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    You would know why it matters if you've read anything being written. It requires just a touch of critical thinking though.

    Skjei is an example of a player you bridge because, while he is/was young, he had been trending downward.

    Buchnevich is an example of a player you consider buying UFA years because he's young and has started to trend upward.
    Sure, a 16 game trend. Like Brendan Smith when he came to NY.
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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    You would know why it matters if you've read anything being written. It requires just a touch of critical thinking though.

    Skjei is an example of a player you bridge because, while he is/was young, he had been trending downward.

    Buchnevich is an example of a player you consider buying UFA years because he's young and has started to trend upward.
    Skjei is in the past and therefore and irrelevant example.

    I wouldn't call 20 games after the deadline an upward trend for Buch. I'd call it 20 good games and probably closer to 40 bad games.

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    Quote Originally Posted by josh View Post
    Any inconsistent player, really.

    Buch, Deangelo this season. Unless they want to sign a deal like Fast


    And we are not hating on Buchnevich. Just need to be cognizant of his play and the cap moving forward. Can’t hand out term contracts for question marks.
    1st half Buchnevich was inconsistent. 2nd half Buchnevich post-benching was very good. I'm just willing to bet on the 2nd half. The problem with Skjei is you couldn't point to any progression for really any stretch of time in the season before they extended him. That's why it was a head scratcher, and he didn't progress last year either.

    I know nobody is dumping on Buchnevich, just like I'm not going to hate on a bridge deal either. There's such a thing as a good bet versus a bad bet. I just view this as more of a good bet than others.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    You would know why it matters if you've read anything being written. It requires just a touch of critical thinking though.

    Skjei is an example of a player you bridge because, while he is/was young, he had been trending downward.

    Buchnevich is an example of a player you consider buying UFA years because he's young and has started to trend upward.
    As a player you have to earn those years being bought. Buch hasn’t yet. Not with 1 20-goal season and a huge need to improve his play without the puck and outside of the offensive zone.

    Again, talent is there and he’s starting to deliver. But there’s a lot to grow on still. This season is big for him
    Give the kid a couple years, a nice raise and let’s see what happens next couple seasons
    Last edited by RangersIn7; 07-15-2019 at 09:07 PM.

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    I'd rather have a problem with Buch being too good and needing a big contract than sucking and taking up too much cap space. If he outgrows a bridge deal we'll have options, rather than being forced to buy him out or give away assets to move him.
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    I like Buch a lot, but I'm not sure he's a long-term piece at all. I actually think the Rangers are best bridging him and letting him walk in free agency when guys like Krav and Kakko are both going to be angling for full-time top-six roles. By that point, paying your third-best RW like your first would just be poor spending IMO.
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    Book is still out on Buch. They’ll have a clearer picture of what he truly is offensively in a year, and it’s likely another 2 full seasons until he’s able to not only establish that, but also round out and establish what the rest of his game will look like.

    If we are talking about a guy who will play on the 3rd line and score, while that’s great, it’s hard to have a guy in that spot who is unable to play at least some level of a defensive and checking role and be effective without the puck in his own end or in the neutral zone. Even if the game is going away from that to an extent. Hard to pay a guy who has his value almost exclusively offensively when he’s playing basically 3rd line minutes and some power play time, but isn’t bringing much else,and has other guys who are better than him in front of him on the depth chart. In a year or so they may be better suited with a different type of player in that spot.

    Bridge all the way.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Future View Post
    Kreider could still be scoring 25-30 goals at that point so, no, it doesn't hurt you, because that's easily tradeable. If you think his production is going to dip, then it doesn't matter what his cap # is because they shouldn't keep him anyway.

    Most of the money for those guys is going to come from the expiring contracts. Hank, Staal, Smith, and Shatty alone is around $32m. It's not like they're the Leafs and you're going to have to give 4 guys $10m.
    Well, yeah. Considering Kreider has never scored 30 goals and topped 25 twice in his career Iím questioning the degree of realism in him being a 25-30 goal scorer at 33. As a result, Iím highly doubtful heíd be tradeable with 3 years left on a 7m deal.
    I agree that we shouldnít project too much with the young players. But if Kakko is the franchise player we believe he is itís far to assume he eats around 1/3 of that cap space. Youíll also need a new deal for Zib. And of course the other players mentioned. I just donít think itís a good fit and I think if you trust the process the right move at this point is to trade him.
    My position is that this is a high risk contract and a luxury the Rangers cannot afford. But itís a complicated question and the opposing view is valid as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gravesy View Post
    Well, yeah. Considering Kreider has never scored 30 goals and topped 25 twice in his career I’m questioning the degree of realism in him being a 25-30 goal scorer at 33. As a result, I’m highly doubtful he’d be tradeable with 3 years left on a 7m deal.
    I agree that we shouldn’t project too much with the young players. But if Kakko is the franchise player we believe he is it’s far to assume he eats around 1/3 of that cap space. You’ll also need a new deal for Zib. And of course the other players mentioned. I just don’t think it’s a good fit and I think if you trust the process the right move at this point is to trade him.
    My position is that this is a high risk contract and a luxury the Rangers cannot afford. But it’s a complicated question and the opposing view is valid as well.
    Well I didn't say age 33, because that's not what he's going to be in 3 years. You don't sign Panarin, trade for Trouba, and think, "trust the process." Making those moves and not thinking you'll be good for another 3 years is contradictory. They're trying to win right now, and Kreider gives you the best shot at that.

    To that end, why are we assuming that Kreider's play is going to drop off a cliff, but Panarin's won't? The whole "Panarin's game translates better" is...nonsense, relative to Kreider, who is phenomenally conditioned and who's only real injury was a fluke. Part of the critique of Kreider is that he's not physical enough, drifts, etc. etc., which is fair, but it lends itself to longevity. If he played like Ryan Callahan, I'd agree, but he doesn't. In the NHL today, 30 is only a cutoff for guys who can only make the roster if they go 100 mph. Guys who play with any skill are good far beyond that. There's no reason Kreider can't have the same career arc as Pavelski - who plays basically the same game - or Marleau, who both surpassed their career-high goal totals in their age 29 season and were productive well into their 30s.

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    IMO if you bridge Buch and he does anything like he showed last year (becomes a 50 point player), Kreider is getting moved to make room for his salary and some other player's raises.

    Gotta keep that salary manageable and don't offer trade protection.

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