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If Not Artemi Panarin, Then Who?


Phil

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Give me McDavid's 3 year average just like you did with the other 2, and not just the career high he set last year. Let's not cherrypick.

 

McDavid 3 year average: 37 G 71 A 108 points

 

Still less output. Now what?

 

Also I never mentioned Kreider. I pointed out Duchene's variance as a reason for "distaste", which you tried to invalidate with some off the cuff and inaccurate Panarin variance comparison.

2 points fewer at $2m cheaper, I'm taking McD. There's also a colossal difference between a player who is 22 and one who is 27.

 

The first thing you responded to was me talking about both, together. You then went into the talk about Standard Deviations and comparing Panarin to Duchene, in a vacuum. All I said about Panarin was that he has as many seasons as a 70-something point player as he does an 80-something point player.

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It’s not distaste at all imo, but whatever. Over paying good, but not great, players happens every year in free agency.

There’s isn’t a whole lot in his career that suggests he’s likely to represent value at 8m + for the next 7 years. In fact I’d argue you’re the one making assumptions, because it’s debatable whether the numbers support your claim.

 

Again, good player. I just think you nailed it with your initial remark. In a hot UFA market someone’s going to pay him above his worth. I’m really not sure that’s in the Rangers interest for a guy who’s closer to a 2c than a 1c for me.

Yea, end of the day I think we just kind of have an opposite perspective on what he is. A UFA providing value is exceedingly rare, but I do think Duchene can be a 70-point player fairly consistnetly...that's worth $8m on the market all day.

 

I think there's a ton of value in having a high-end 2c, especially with the way Kakko immediately changes our wing depth. Assuming you're overpaying for a UFA anyways, I'd be tempted to do that, at still a lower price, than go all in for Panarin, because you're filling a hole that Panarin simply doesn't. We need to keep in mind that the cost of Panarin is Panarin + a 2c. I can't imagine they plan on going into this season with Panarin and having the 2c be Chytil or Howden.

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2 points fewer at $2m cheaper, I'm taking McD. There's also a colossal difference between a player who is 22 and one who is 27.

 

The first thing you responded to was me talking about both, together. You then went into the talk about Standard Deviations and comparing Panarin to Duchene, in a vacuum. All I said about Panarin was that he has as many seasons as a 70-something point player as he does an 80-something point player.

 

Well, clearly a misunderstanding. I addressed your Kreider/Duchene vs. Panarin hypothetical. Then I separately addressed a comment you made in the same post about why there would be a distaste for Duchene (specifically, not Kreider). I thought it was clear but I should have broken down your quote into two sections and answered separately.

 

The point still stands though. Duchene is far more likely to wind up not earning his contract than Panarin. It doesn't mean he wouldn't, but odds and probability matter.

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Yea, end of the day I think we just kind of have an opposite perspective on what he is. A UFA providing value is exceedingly rare, but I do think Duchene can be a 70-point player fairly consistnetly...that's worth $8m on the market all day.

 

I think there's a ton of value in having a high-end 2c, especially with the way Kakko immediately changes our wing depth. Assuming you're overpaying for a UFA anyways, I'd be tempted to do that, at still a lower price, than go all in for Panarin, because you're filling a hole that Panarin simply doesn't. We need to keep in mind that the cost of Panarin is Panarin + a 2c. I can't imagine they plan on going into this season with Panarin and having the 2c be Chytil or Howden.

 

If Duchene becomes a perennial 70 point center over the next 4-5 years, whoever gets him at 7-8 mill a season will be getting a great deal. My money says he doesn't though. I feel like he's been in the league long enough to see what he is, which is a fairly inconsistent 2nd line C.

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If it’s only about money panarin is going to cost the rangers more than Tavares got. The whole Florida discount due to income tax is bullshit yet real. I’ve always thought it’s $12m a year to sign him here. Hopefully I’m wrong and it’s less, better yet hopefully he signs in Florida.

 

I too would prefer Duchene if I had to choose. Would rather not sign anyone over 5 years right now. But with a gun to my head it’s duchene because of position and team need plus he would cost significantly less.

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If it’s only about money panarin is going to cost the rangers more than Tavares got. The whole Florida discount due to income tax is bullshit yet real. I’ve always thought it’s $12m a year to sign him here. Hopefully I’m wrong and it’s less, better yet hopefully he signs in Florida.

 

I too would prefer Duchene if I had to choose. Would rather not sign anyone over 5 years right now. But with a gun to my head it’s duchene because of position and team need plus he would cost significantly less which means the buyout is less 4-5 years from now when they need the cap space

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If Duchene becomes a perennial 70 point center over the next 4-5 years, whoever gets him at 7-8 mill a season will be getting a great deal. My money says he doesn't though. I feel like he's been in the league long enough to see what he is, which is a fairly inconsistent 2nd line C.

He's been an inconsistent 1st line C, but as a 2c, it doesn't get a whole lot better. I think that's the difference in our perspective. I also probably give a lot more credence to the fact that Colorado was complete poison for him for a while there. I mean, he was a p/g player with Landeskog on his wing, but how is it fair to expect 70 points when Alex Tanguay, Jarome Iginla and John Mitchell are all commonly on your line? I mean, look at the goal scorers here, this is a joke for a guy who was p/g the year before: https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/d/duchema01/scoring/2015

There's probably some reason why he wasn't clicking with some of the more talented guys, but c'mon. Play him a bunch with Mark Stone, and all of a sudden, back to p/g. He doesn't drive lines on his own - which is why he's a 2C - but I think a lot of his inconsistency has been a product of just the environment around him, as much as his own game slipping.

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If it?s only about money panarin is going to cost the rangers more than Tavares got. The whole Florida discount due to income tax is bullshit yet real. I?ve always thought it?s $12m a year to sign him here. Hopefully I?m wrong and it?s less, better yet hopefully he signs in Florida.

 

I too would prefer Duchene if I had to choose. Would rather not sign anyone over 5 years right now. But with a gun to my head it?s duchene because of position and team need plus he would cost significantly less.

Signing Duchene is ?cla$$ic Rangers?

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No more than any other UFA

 

Yeah, we don’t want that.

 

And there’s a difference between signing the best available free agent and an elite talent.

 

Gomez, Drury, Richards, Redden, Duchene

Fits perfectly!

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Yeah, we don?t want that.

 

And there?s a difference between signing the best available free agent and an elite talent.

 

Gomez, Drury, Richards, Redden, Duchene

Fits perfectly!

No elite talent makes UFA these days.

 

Tavares, but that's a special situation. Panarin isn't elite. Neither is Karlsson, now.

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Define elite.
In a class by himself in a scoring or ability category. MacKinnon elite speed and shot, same with mcDavid. Ovechkin/Stammer elite shot. Crosby plays the entire game on his backhand. Kucherov elite offensive package.

 

There are like 15 players giving you Panarin's level. Kane, Goudreau, Pasta, Marner, Seguin, Giroux, Hall, Raantanen.

 

He's just not the best at any one thing, or at all things.

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No elite talent makes UFA these days.

 

Tavares, but that's a special situation. Panarin isn't elite. Neither is Karlsson, now.

 

Since 15-16 when Panarin came in the league

 

Panarin

322 gp

320 points (8th)

.99 ppg (10th)

 

Tavares

319 gp

308 pts (11th)

.97 ppg (16th)

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In a class by himself in a scoring or ability category. MacKinnon elite speed and shot, same with mcDavid. Ovechkin/Stammer elite shot. Crosby plays the entire game on his backhand. Kucherov elite offensive package.

 

There are like 15 players giving you Panarin's level. Kane, Goudreau, Pasta, Marner, Seguin, Giroux, Hall, Raantanen.

 

He's just not the best at any one thing, or at all things.

 

This is fair. But you insinuated that Tavares is elite and Panarin is not. Josh just covered the case I was going to make.

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Since 15-16 when Panarin came in the league

 

Panarin

322 gp

320 points (8th)

.99 ppg (10th)

 

Tavares

319 gp

308 pts (11th)

.97 ppg (16th)

Yea. Those Hawks teams were good.

 

While Tavares was making Moulson and Lee relevant.

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Well Anders Lee just scored 28 goals without Tavares so I guess he's actually a decent hockey player.
Sure. With Barzal.

 

You wanna sign him to play with Howden? Let's revisit the Lee topic, this time next year?

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